Circle Stock: Is A 2x Rise Possible?

We talked about Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) stock’s upside case of $300 less than two weeks ago. The stock has jumped from $120 levels at that time to about $240 now. Can it climb to $500 levels from here?

Sure — and we build on the upside case below, especially with more clarity around Circle’s non-stablecoin revenue opportunity. But with the rapid run-up, it’s also time to caution investors: upside remains real, but so does downside risk from macro shifts, competitive pressures, and adoption curves that don’t accelerate as expected.

Revisiting the $300 Case — and Extending It

Our prior analysis argued that Circle could reach $300 per share based on three drivers:

1. Scale in USDC circulation, lifting yield income on reserves
2. Margin expansion as the platform matures
3. Recurring revenues from enterprise APIs

These drivers are still in play — and may be accelerating. But now that the stock has doubled in just days, investors must ask: What supports a further doubling from here?

What Could Justify a $500 Valuation?

At $500 per share, Circle’s market cap would be in the range of $120 billion. What would justify that?

1. USDC Reserve Revenue Scaling Even Further

Circle currently benefits from a 5%+ interest rate environment and ~$60 billion in USDC circulation. If this circulation grows to $250 billion over the next 3–4 years, and rates stay above 3%, gross yield revenue could reach $8 billion annually. Even after partner revenue sharing (notably Coinbase), Circle could net $4-4.5 billion, nearly tripling current levels.

This alone could support earnings of $2 per share if net margins of near 10% reported in the last few quarters hold — but that would be an underestimate as with higher scale, we may see an improvement in net margins hereon, potentially reaching 20% net margin reported in FY2023. In that case we are looking at an EPS of $4 per share, which, however, would not take us to the valuation of $500.

2. Infrastructure Revenue Becomes a Dominant Driver

The bigger story is non-stablecoin revenue as a result of Circle’s push to become the financial backbone for blockchain-based payment applications, which includes:

• Programmable payment APIs for enterprises
• Smart contract wallets and custody SDKs
• On-chain FX, treasury, and compliance rails

Circle is effectively positioning itself as the “Stripe for digital dollars” — offering developer-grade infrastructure to help businesses integrate stablecoin payments, cross-border flows, and on-chain financial operations into their core systems.

How big could this get? If Circle captures even 15,000–20,000 mid-sized and large clients across fintech, tokenized asset platforms, and embedded finance use cases, it could realistically generate $3-3.5 billion in recurring infrastructure revenue.

This is not a stretch. For comparison:

• Stripe serves millions of businesses globally and generates billions in revenue from its enterprise clients.
• Adyen works with around 5,000 enterprise customers and earns over $1.5 billion annually, with average client spend exceeding $300,000.
• Plaid, focused on data and account connectivity, serves over 12,000 financial apps.

Given the rising demand for regulated, on-chain infrastructure — especially among institutions and fintechs — Circle has a credible path to attracting a sizeable share of the global enterprise addressable market. At $200K per year per client (significantly lower than Adyen), these services could yield software-like recurring revenue with higher margins as compared to the yield income and long-term operating leverage.

This combined with the projected reserve yield, Circle could hit $8 billion in total revenue, and net income of almost $3 billion (~2 billion from infrastructure business). With 250 million shares, this implies EPS of $12 — and at a 42x P/E multiple (not unreasonable for high-margin fintech infra), a $500 stock price starts to look justifiable.

But What Could Go Wrong?

While the $500 case is compelling, investors should be alert to the downside too. Here is another analysis: Circle Stock At 60% Safety?

• Interest Rates Drop Faster Than Expected

Lower rates would hit Circle’s core yield engine. A drop from 5% to 2% could halve reserve income unless offset by massive USDC growth.

• Revenue Sharing with Coinbase Narrows Margins

The Coinbase partnership accounts for a large chunk of Circle’s cost structure. Any renegotiation, tension, or change in economic terms could affect net margins meaningfully.

• Adoption of APIs Slower Than Expected

Circle’s infra business is still early-stage. It requires not just product, but trust, integration support, and client onboarding. If enterprises don’t scale quickly, upside from software revenues may be delayed or capped.

• Regulatory Risk Isn’t Gone

While clarity is improving, regulation in blockchain remains fragmented. A hostile U.S. administration, or inconsistent treatment globally, could stunt Circle’s ability to scale internationally.

Conclusion: $500 is a Stretch, But Not Impossible

The speed of Circle’s recent rally may need a pause. But structurally, the company is transitioning from a stablecoin issuer to an infrastructure provider for internet finance. In the near term, we can expect volatility, but the revenue trajectory shows that Circle has the building blocks to reach $500.

Investing in a single stock like CRCL carries risks. Conversely, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which contains 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over the past four years. What’s the reason for this? Overall, HQ Portfolio stocks have provided higher returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index, resulting in a less volatile experience, as shown by HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates