What Could Set Barrick Mining Stock on Fire

Barrick Mining (B) has demonstrated powerful rallies in its history, with over a dozen instances of gains exceeding 30% in under two months, notably in 2019 and 2023. Five times, the stock surged more than 50% within similar short periods, highlighting its potential for rapid growth. If past patterns hold, future catalysts could drive Barrick to significant new highs, rewarding timely investors with substantial returns.

Specifically, we see these catalysts:

1. Post-Acquisition Aerospace Margin Expansion
2. Strategic Portfolio Reshaping under Apollo
3. Enhanced Capital Structure and Deleveraging

Catalyst 1: Post-Acquisition Aerospace Margin Expansion

• Details: Increase Aerospace adjusted EBITDA margins towards historical levels, Capture remaining cost synergies from MB Aerospace integration,
• Segment Affected: Aerospace
• Potential Timeline: Mid-2026
• Evidence: $18 million in cost synergies identified from MB Aerospace acquisition, Reported OEM productivity challenges in Q2 2024 earnings call ripe for private equity operational focus,

Catalyst 2: Strategic Portfolio Reshaping under Apollo

• Details: Accelerated focus on higher-growth aerospace and defense end-markets, Potential for bolt-on acquisitions to enhance aerospace capabilities,
• Segment Affected: Corporate Strategy / M&A
• Potential Timeline: Throughout 2026
• Evidence: Recent divestiture of Associated Spring and Hänggi businesses to reduce automotive exposure, Acquisition by Apollo Global Management to accelerate transformation strategy,

Catalyst 3: Enhanced Capital Structure and Deleveraging

• Details: Reduced interest expense improving free cash flow generation, Achieve long-term leverage goal of 2.5x, increasing financial flexibility,
• Segment Affected: Corporate Finance
• Potential Timeline: End of 2026
• Evidence: Net cash proceeds from divestitures used to reduce debt, Stated goal to achieve leverage ratio of 3.0x or lower by end of 2024 and 2.5x by 2025,

But The Stock Is Not Without Its Risks

Here are specific risks we see:

• Executive Exodus & Governance Breakdown
• Accounting Irregularities & Internal Control Failure
• Cash Flow Deception Masking Fundamental Weakness

Looking at historical drawdown during market crises is another lens to look at risk.

Stock B took a hit of 66% in the Global Financial Crisis, 52% in 2018, and 48% during the Inflation Shock. Covid’s selloff was milder but still a 29% drop. Risk is real.

Read B Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

Reference: Current Fundamentals

• Revenue Growth: 18.4% LTM and 8.5% last 3-year average.
• Cash Generation: Nearly 18.8% free cash flow margin and 43.3% operating margin LTM.
• Valuation: Barrick Mining stock trades at a P/E multiple of 20.9

*LTM: Last Twelve Months | If you want more details, read Buy or Sell B Stock.

Still not convinced about B stock? Consider Portfolio Approach

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