How Will Coherent Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Coherent (NYSE:COHR) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $55 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $661 Mil in operating profits and net income of $293 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Coherent’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 6.3%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.8% | 6.0% | 11.7% |
| 11/5/2025 | 18.3% | 16.4% | 38.1% |
| 8/13/2025 | -19.6% | -24.1% | -9.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.4% | 15.9% | 14.5% |
| 2/5/2025 | 11.5% | -3.1% | -26.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | 10.1% | 3.3% | 11.9% |
| 8/15/2024 | 7.5% | 9.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/6/2024 | -4.5% | -6.1% | 15.2% |
| 2/5/2024 | 17.4% | 25.3% | 31.0% |
| 11/6/2023 | 0.0% | 3.1% | 18.8% |
| 8/16/2023 | 1.4% | 14.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/10/2023 | -5.0% | -13.3% | 22.4% |
| 2/8/2023 | -2.7% | 1.2% | -8.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 7.5% | 38.4% | 22.5% |
| 8/24/2022 | -1.4% | -14.0% | -30.9% |
| 5/10/2022 | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% |
| 2/9/2022 | 5.1% | 10.4% | -1.0% |
| 11/9/2021 | 0.9% | 2.7% | 5.3% |
| 8/10/2021 | -4.3% | -8.3% | -10.5% |
| 5/6/2021 | -7.2% | -6.5% | 7.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 9.8% | 14.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -8.3% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 18.3% | 38.4% | 38.1% |
| Max Negative | -19.6% | -24.1% | -30.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -5.5% | -20.5% | -36.1% |
| 3Y History | -23.3% | -36.9% | -53.0% |
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