What To Expect From Capital One Stock?

COF: Capital One Financial logo
Capital One Financial

Capital One’s stock (NYSE: COF) has gained 22% YTD, as compared to the 19% increase in the S&P500 over the same period. Further, at its current price of $113 per share, the stock is trading 4% below its fair value of $118 – Trefis’ estimate for Capital One’s valuationThe company posted mixed results in the second quarter of 2023, with the earnings beating the consensus estimates but revenues missing the mark. It reported total revenues of $9.01 billion – up 9% y-o-y, mainly driven by an 11% rise in the noninterest revenues and a 9% growth in the net interest income (NII). The NII mainly benefited from an increase in the total outstanding loans, partially offset by a slight drop in the net interest margin. On the expense front, the provisions for credit losses witnessed an unfavorable increase from $1.08 billion to $2.49 billion. It eroded all the positive effects of growth in the top line and resulted in an adjusted net income of $1.35 billion – down 31% y-o-y.

The top line improved 9% y-o-y to $17.92 billion in the first half of FY 2023, driven by an 11% rise in the net interest income and a 4% growth in the non-interest revenues. The NII was up due to higher average interest-earning assets and improvement in the net interest margin (for the first two-quarters). That said, the provisions figure jumped almost 200% from $1.76 billion to $5.28 billion. Overall, it led to a 48% y-o-y drop in the adjusted net income to $2.24 billion. 

Moving forward, we expect the Q3 results to follow the same trend as the second quarter. AltogetherCapital One revenues are forecast to touch $36.55 billion in FY2023. Additionally, COF’s net income margin is likely to decline from 20.6% to 12.6% in the year, leading to an adjusted net income of $4.61 billion and an annual GAAP EPS of $12.45. This coupled with a P/E multiple of just above 9x will lead to a valuation of $118.

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 Returns Aug 2023
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 COF Return -3% 22% 30%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 19% 104%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -2% 26% 304%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/3/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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