A 7-Day Winning Streak Has Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Up 27%
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock is on a 7-day winning streak, up 26.5% since the run began. That added about $9.4 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $44.8 billion. The stock closed at $35.40 on Thursday, November 5, 13.4% below its 52-week high of $40.87 and 28.6% above its low of $27.52.
How The Streak Stacks Up Against The S&P 500
Returns for CMG and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Thursday, November 5 and including dividends:
| Return Period | CMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 0.6% | -4.4% |
| 7 Days (Current Streak) | 26.5% | -4.8% |
| 1 Month (21 Trading Days) | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 3 Months (63 Trading Days) | 8.0% | -5.0% |
| Year To Date | -4.3% | 8.4% |
| 1 Year (252 Trading Days) | 11.5% | 9.9% |
A Stock-Specific Run, Or A Market Move?
The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 4.8% over the same 7 sessions, including dividends, against Chipotle Mexican Grill’s +26.5%. 1 other S&P 500 stock is currently on winning streaks of 7 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is up 8.0%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 56 sessions of that window it was down 14.7%.
What The Numbers Say About The Rally
On the fundamentals, revenue grew 7.9% over the last twelve months, against a median of 7.7% for S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary stocks; its operating margin is 14.9%, versus a median of 14.9%; and the stock trades at 32.5 times trailing earnings against a median of 19.4. The numbers make the run harder to justify: a multiple well above the median. At this price, the stock is asking a lot of the business.
A climb like this is worth respecting, and worth testing. Our Guidance Momentum screen tracks the stocks whose companies just raised their own forward numbers.
For anyone who would rather back the theme than one company, a consumer discretionary ETF like XLY holds the whole group, not just this stock. It is still a concentrated bet on one theme, which is the gap the portfolio below is built to close.
Streaks End. Discipline Compounds
A run like this is genuinely useful information: something about this business has the market’s full attention. But streaks are where discipline gets tested, because the urge to chase strength is strongest right before it pauses.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio channels that urge into a system: roughly 30 businesses selected for consistent cash generation, strong margins, and resilient balance sheets, sized and rebalanced with rules rather than excitement. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Enjoy the streak; own the process.