CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) stock, the world’s largest financial derivatives exchange, has improved 5.5% in the last week. But will the company’s stock continue to rise over the coming weeks, or is a decline in the stock price imminent? Based on trends in the company’s stock price over the last 10 years, the Trefis Machine Learning Engine finds average returns for CME stock to be around 0.6% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 5.5% gain in a week (five trading days).
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, CME Group’s stock price forecast for a month from now is around $200 – marginally above its current market price of roughly $198. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding CME Group’s stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the interactive dashboard. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
And if you are considering CME Group’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for CME Group’s valuation.
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF CME stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, CME stock moves an average of 9.5% with a 71.4% probability of a positive return over this period
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of CME Group Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the price forecast for CME Group stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: CME Group stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: CME Group stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the price forecast for CME Group stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
CME stock fares better after Case 1, with an expected return of 9.7% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 0.6% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $218 in Case 1 and a figure of $200 in Case 2 using CME market price of $198.43 on 9/28/2021.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for CME Group stock is likely to changes after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold CME Group stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For CME stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for CME Group after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait for a while?
The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although CME stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
CME’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for CME Group stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.