Cleveland-Cliffs stock (NYSE: CLF) has been on a declining trend for more than a month. The stock, which currently trades at $20 per share, has dropped more than 6% in just the last one week compared to a 3% fall in the S&P 500. If you look at the change in the last one month, CLF stock is sharply down 18% underperforming the broader market which is down more than 5%. CLF stock has declined over recent weeks following a drastic decline in global iron ore prices. Iron ore prices have declined more than 17% in the last one month. Compared to its high of $230/ton in July 2021, iron ore price per ton has halved to $117 currently. The fall in prices was mainly due to lower imports by China following its move to control steel production to meet carbon emission norms. Secondly, China’s second biggest property company – Evergrande – recently announced that it is finding it difficult to sell off assets quickly enough to repay its mounting debt load. This announcement led to fear about the prospect of defaults and a domino-effect crash through China’s housing market. This would, in turn, have a severe adverse impact on steel and iron ore demand. Additionally, China’s trade dispute with Australia, which is China’s largest iron ore supplier, has also been a factor in the drop in iron ore prices.
Now, is CLF stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 55% chance of a rise in CLF stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CLF Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about CLF historical returns and return comparison to peers, see Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Return.
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Twenty-One Day: CLF -18%, vs. S&P500 –5.4%; Underperformed market
(15% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- CLF stock decreased 18% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 5.4%
- A change of -18% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 388 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 388 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 215 occasions
- This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: CLF 0.4%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Outperformed market
(48% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- CLF stock increased 0.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.2%
- A change of 0.4% or more over ten trading days is a 48% likelihood event, which has occurred 1213 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 1213 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 578 occasions
- This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: CLF -6.4%, vs. S&P500 -3.1%; Underperformed market
(24% likelihood event; 46% probability of rise over next five days)
- CLF stock decreased 6.4% over a five-day trading period ending 10/04/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.1%
- A change of -6.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 595 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 595 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 273 occasions
- This points to a 46% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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