Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Rises Almost 20% In Ten Days – Here’s Why

+70.61%
Upside
15.18
Market
25.90
Trefis
CLF: Cleveland-Cliffs logo
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs

Cleveland-Cliffs stock (NYSE: CLF) has jumped 8% in just the last one week and 18% in the last ten days. In comparison, the market has been flat in the last one week and up 4% in the last ten days. This reflects that CLF stock completely outperformed the broader market (S&P 500) on both the occasions. The recent rally has been driven by expectations of strong Q4 2021 results, which will be out on 11th Feb 2022. The results are likely to reflect the benefits of y-o-y higher steel prices and contribution of ArcelorMittal USA and AK Steel acquisitions. Steel prices witnessed a significant rally in 2021. Though prices came under pressure in Q4 2021, they still remained above the year-ago period, which is likely to benefit and reflect in the 2021 results.

Now, is CLF stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 53% chance of a rise in CLF stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on CLF Stock Chance of Rise.

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  5. Is Cleveland-Cliffs Set To Rise Further After Its 70% Rally?
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Twenty-One Day: CLF -15%, vs. S&P500 -3.3%; Underperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • CLF stock decreased 15% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.3%
  • A change of -15% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 490 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 490 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 261 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CLF 18%, vs. S&P500 3.8%; Outperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • CLF stock increased 18% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.8%
  • A change of 18% or more over ten trading days is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 254 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 254 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 124 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CLF 7.8%, vs. S&P500 -0.4%; Outperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 46% probability of rise over next five days)

  • CLF stock increased 7.8% over a five-day trading period till 02/08/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.4%
  • A change of 7.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 462 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 462 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 212 occasions
  • This points to a 46% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 CLF Return 16% -9% 136%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -5% 102%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% -9% 258%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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