CF Stock Surges 14% With A 6-day Winning Spree On RBC Price Target Hike To $95
CF Industries (CF) – a manufacturer of hydrogen, nitrogen, and fertilizer products worldwide – hit 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 14%. The company market cap has surged by about $1.8 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $15 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 18.8% compared to 0.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] RBC Capital Price Target Increase
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- Target Raised to $95 from $90
- Followed strategic low-carbon ammonia MOU
- Impact: Renewed Institutional Confidence, Accelerated Price Momentum
[2] Positive Industry Sentiment
- Geopolitical instability impacting urea supply
- BNP Paribas Exane also raised target to $90
- Impact: Anticipation Of Higher Nitrogen Prices, Sector-Wide Buying Interest
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in CF stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. Taken together with its Low valuation, this makes the stock look Attractive (For details, see Buy or Sell CF).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for CF stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | CF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 13.7% | -1.5% |
| 1M (21D) | 17.3% | 1.5% |
| 3M (63D) | 10.1% | 2.1% |
| YTD 2026 | 18.8% | 0.4% |
| 2025 | -7.2% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 10.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -4.7% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has CF behaved after prior drops? See CF Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 28 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 34 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 11 | 12 |
| 4D | 4 | 13 |
| 5D | 4 | 2 |
| 6D | 2 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 7 | 5 |
| Total >=3 D | 28 | 34 |
Key Financials for CF Industries (CF)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $6.6 Bil | $5.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $2.3 Bil | $1.7 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.5 Bil | $1.2 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.9 Bil | $1.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $646.0 Mil | $574.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $386.0 Mil | $353.0 Mil |
While CF stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.