How Will Constellation Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) is set to report its earnings on Friday, November 7, 2025. The company has $114 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $25 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Constellation Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 13 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 69% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.9%, and median of the 4 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.6% | -3.1% | -10.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 10.3% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
| 2/18/2025 | 2.6% | -15.6% | -33.4% |
| 11/4/2024 | -12.5% | -7.3% | -4.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.5% | 10.4% | 4.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 3.8% | 7.4% | -4.7% |
| 2/27/2024 | 16.9% | 32.1% | 39.4% |
| 11/6/2023 | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| 5/4/2023 | 2.7% | 3.8% | 14.8% |
| 2/16/2023 | -0.4% | -7.9% | -10.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -6.4% | 0.6% | -1.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | 0.4% | 14.8% | 23.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 10.0% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -7.6% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 32.1% | 39.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -15.6% | -33.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 15.0% | 6.1% | 64.5% |
| 3Y History | 22.6% | 10.8% | 61.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Constellation Energy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Constellation Energy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG Earnings Dates | CEG | EXC | ETR | FE | EIX |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | 10.3% | -0.7% | 1.2% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/18/2025 | 2.6% | -0.4% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/4/2024 | -12.5% | -4.4% | -8.0% | -3.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.5% | -1.8% | -3.9% | 0.8% | 6.7% |
| 5/9/2024 | 3.8% | 1.2% | N/A* | 4.4% | N/A* |
| 2/27/2024 | 16.9% | 0.0% | -0.7% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| 11/6/2023 | 6.5% | -1.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% | -0.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.9% | -2.4% | -3.1% | -4.7% | -0.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | 2.7% | 0.5% | N/A* | -4.4% | N/A* |
| 2/16/2023 | -0.4% | 1.1% | N/A* | 0.4% | N/A* |
| 11/8/2022 | -6.4% | 2.0% | -0.7% | 1.2% | -4.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 5.3% |
| CORRELATION | 40.4% | -51.8% | 52.8% | 27.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CEG
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