If Casey’s Stock Looks Expensive, You Need To Read This

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At $670.02 a share, Casey’s General Stores (CASY) trades at 30.1 times adjusted earnings for the twelve months ended July 31, 2026. This metric calculates profit by adding back stock-based pay after tax. A multiple of 30.1 is steep for a convenience store chain that keeps about four cents of each sales dollar as profit, but buyers are paying for the years ahead. So what does Casey’s cost on the profit forecast for fiscal 2027 and 2028?

What Casey’s Stock Costs On Forecast Profit

Based on the consensus forecast, Casey’s stock trades at 31.2 times expected profit for fiscal 2027 and 28.6 times expected profit for fiscal 2028. Like the 30.1 times multiple on the past twelve months, the company is priced near 30 times profit in each forecast year too. The 30.1 times figure uses adjusted earnings, and analysts’ forecasts may not add back stock pay the same way. Buyers at today’s price are paying in advance for the forecast profit in full.

The Profit Casey’s Must Deliver For That Price

The consensus forecast for fiscal 2028 shows Casey’s net income rising 9.2% on almost flat revenue, up 0.24%. Casey’s delivered far faster sales growth of 13.8% over the twelve months ended July 31, 2026, so the company does not need faster sales to meet the fiscal 2028 forecast. Much of that growth came from pricier fuel: in its latest quarter, Casey’s average retail fuel price rose 33%, from $3.00 to $3.99 a gallon.

That profit growth has to come from a wider margin instead. The consensus forecast projects a net margin of 4.1% for fiscal 2028, up from 3.8% for fiscal 2027. Casey’s earned a 4.1% margin over the twelve months ended July 31, 2026, so the forecast asks the company to hold that level for a full fiscal year.

Casey’s grew net income 27% from a year earlier in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended July 31, 2026. Management said its in-store margin widened, mainly because of the mix of prepared food and dispensed beverage. Management kept its fiscal 2027 guidance for EBITDA growth at 8% to 10%. EBITDA is profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. The company also said it will update its annual guidance on the second-quarter call, as it has in the past.

Where Casey’s Could Miss The Forecast

Fuel margin is where Casey’s is most likely to miss the consensus forecast. The chain earned a fuel margin of 47.8 cents a gallon in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, up 6.8 cents from a year earlier. Management said the fuel margin for August was in the low 40-cent range per gallon. If the fuel margin stays nearer the August level, Casey’s would earn less on each gallon than it did in the first quarter. Management’s fiscal 2027 EBITDA outlook, given in June, was built on a mid-40s cents-per-gallon fuel margin.

Casey’s could also miss on costs. Operating expenses rose 8% in the first quarter, and management expects a similar rise in the second quarter, partly because of higher retail fuel prices. With revenue in the consensus forecast almost flat for fiscal 2028, Casey’s would find the wider net margin harder to reach if costs keep growing at that pace, and the forecast would come down. For the full fiscal 2027, management guides operating expense growth of 5% to 7%, a rate below the first-quarter pace.

If the consensus forecast arrives, the price on those two forecast years offers a fair picture of what Casey’s costs. If Casey’s falls short on fuel margin, buyers at today’s price will have paid for profit that never arrives, making the stock a riskier holding. Casey’s next report, for the second quarter, is expected in December 2026. Management plans to update its annual guidance at that time, and fuel margin per gallon is the measure to watch.

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