How Will Citigroup Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Citigroup (NYSE:C) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, January 14, 2026. The company has $214 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $85 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $20 Bil in operating profits and net income of $15 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Citigroup’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.7%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -1.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | 3.7% | 5.9% | 10.1% |
| 4/15/2025 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 20.0% |
| 1/15/2025 | 6.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| 10/15/2024 | -5.1% | -6.3% | 5.5% |
| 4/12/2024 | -1.7% | -3.9% | 5.6% |
| 1/10/2024 | -1.8% | -3.6% | 2.8% |
| 10/13/2023 | -0.2% | -3.5% | 2.6% |
| 7/14/2023 | -4.0% | -0.6% | -5.4% |
| 4/14/2023 | 4.8% | 4.4% | -2.9% |
| 1/13/2023 | 1.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% |
| 10/14/2022 | 0.7% | -0.1% | 18.2% |
| 7/15/2022 | 13.2% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| 4/14/2022 | 1.6% | 4.9% | -4.0% |
| 1/14/2022 | -1.3% | -6.7% | -1.2% |
| 10/14/2021 | 0.8% | 2.2% | -1.3% |
| 7/14/2021 | -0.3% | -3.0% | 9.5% |
| 1/15/2021 | -6.9% | -11.1% | -6.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.4% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -3.6% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 19.1% | 24.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -11.1% | -6.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 48.7% | 10.9% | -45.7% |
| 3Y History | 18.0% | -6.2% | -55.5% |
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