Down 6% In A Day, Will Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Rebound?

BMY: Bristol Myers Squibb logo
Bristol Myers Squibb

Bristol Myers Squibb stock (NYSE: BMY) was down 6% in yesterday’s trade, while it’s down around 10% in a month. The recent fall can be attributed to the AXIOMATIC-SSP study of Milvexian, which failed to achieve the primary endpoint. Although the drug showed a 30% relative risk reduction in recurrent symptomatic ischemic strokes, it failed to induce a dose response. Milvexian is an important drug in the company’s mid-stage pipeline with a multi-billion dollar potential peak sales opportunity. As such, the development did not sit well with the investors, sending BMY’s stock price lower.

BMS is focused on its expanding its pipeline to combat biosimilar competition. Although it sees continued market share gains for Eliquis and Opdivo, the loss of market exclusivity for Revlimid poses a threat to the top-line growth going forward. Revlimid sales were down 22% to $2.5 billion in Q2, a trend expected to continue over the coming quarters. BMS has launched several new drugs over the last year or so, including Abecma, Breyanzi, and Zeposia, to aid its top-line expansion. In the near term, though, the company faces headwinds from the strengthening dollar.

But now that BMY stock has seen a -10% move in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase in BMY stock over the next month. BMY stock has seen a move of 10% or more 151 times in the last ten years. Of those, 104 resulted in BMY stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 104 out of 151, or a 69% chance of a rise in BMY stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving -10.5% or more over five days, the stock rose on 43% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving -10.4% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 54% of the occasions
  • After moving -9.5% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 69% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a fall in BMY stock over the next five days and a higher chance of a rise in the next ten days and one month.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500

  • Five-Day Return: NVO highest at 1.7%; BMY lowest at -10.5%
  • Ten-Day Return: NVO highest at 2.8%; BMY lowest at -10.4%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: MRK highest at -2.0%; BMY lowest at -9.5%

While BMY stock looks fairly valued, it is helpful to see how Bristol Myers Squibb’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Mednax vs. Penske Automotive.

Despite inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, BMY stock has risen 7% this year. But can it drop from here? See how low Bristol Myers Squibb stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 BMY Return -10% 7% 14%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -16% 79%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% -16% 236%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/30/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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