How Will Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Trend Post Q4 Results?

BMY: Bristol Myers Squibb logo
Bristol Myers Squibb

Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) is scheduled to report its Q4 2022 results on Thursday, February 2. We expect BMY stock to trade sideways, with its revenue falling marginally below, but earnings above the street estimates. Although the company should benefit from continued market share gains for Eliquis, Opdivo, and Reblozyl, forex headwinds and an expected decline in Revlimid sales due to biosimilar competition will likely weigh on the overall sales. Furthermore, we find BMY stock to have little room for growth, as discussed below. Our interactive dashboard analysis of Bristol Myers Squibb Earnings Preview has additional details.

(1) Revenues expected to be slightly below the consensus estimates

  • Trefis estimates BMS’ Q4 2022 revenues to be around $11.2 billion, reflecting over a 6% y-o-y decline and slightly below the consensus estimate of $11.3 billion.
  • Forex headwinds are likely to weigh on the company’s overall performance.
  • A decline in Revlimid sales will likely more than offset sales growth for Eliquis, Opdivo, and Reblozyl.
  • Looking at Q3 2022, the company saw its sales fall 3% y-o-y to $11.2 billion. Its In-Line products sales were up 5%, while Recent LOE Products (refers to drugs that have lost market exclusivity) sales were down 28%.
  • Our dashboard on Bristol Myers Squibb’s Revenues details the company’s segments.
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(2) EPS likely to be above the consensus estimates

  • BMS’ Q3 2022 adjusted earnings per share is expected to be $1.75 per Trefis analysis, slightly above the consensus estimate of $1.71. This compares with the $1.83 figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
  • The company’s adjusted net income of $4.26 billion in Q3 2022 reflected a 2% fall from its $4.34 billion figure in the prior-year quarter, partly due to lower revenues.
  • For the full-year 2023, we expect the adjusted EPS to be $7.98, compared to the EPS of $7.51 in 2021 and an estimated $7.63 in 2022.

(3) BMY stock looks like it has little room for growth

  • We estimate Bristol Myers Squibb’s Valuation to be around $80 per share, just 10% above the current market price of $73.
  • At its current levels, BMY stock is trading at a  P/E multiple of 9x based on our EPS estimate of $7.98 for 2023, aligning with its last three-year average, implying that BMY stock may have only a little room for growth.
  • However, if the company reports upbeat Q4 results and provides a 2023 outlook better than the street estimates, the P/E multiple will likely be revised upward, resulting in higher levels for BMY stock.

While BMY stock looks fairly valued, it is helpful to see how Bristol Myers Squibb’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Mednax vs. Penske Automotive

Despite inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, BMY stock has risen 14% in the last twelve months. But can it drop from here? See how low Bristol Myers Squibb stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2023
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 BMY Return 1% 1% 25%
 S&P 500 Return 6% 6% 81%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 10% 10% 246%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/27/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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