Badger Meter Stock (-11%): Revenue Miss and Slowdown Fears Trigger Sell-Off

Badger Meter, a leader in water metering technology, saw its stock plunge -11% on heavy volume following its Q4 2025 earnings report. The company missed revenue expectations and signaled a slowdown in growth for the first half of 2026, spooking investors. With the stock now trading at a significant discount, is this a classic overreaction to a temporary lull in project-based revenue, or the beginning of a more prolonged period of underperformance?

The sharp downturn in Badger Meter’s stock was a direct response to a fundamental miss on revenue and a downward revision of near-term growth expectations. The company announced Q4 2025 revenue of $220.71 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of approximately $230.8 million. While EPS for the quarter was largely in line with expectations at $1.14, the revenue miss combined with guidance for a softer H1 2026 created a narrative of slowing growth.

• Q4 Revenue of $220.71M missed analyst expectations by about $10M.
• Organic sales growth slowed to just 2% in the fourth quarter.
• Management guided for continued slower growth in H1 2026 due to project timing.

Trade Mechanics & Money Flow

Trade Mechanics: What Happened?

The sell-off was technically significant, with the stock closing at $146.32 on January 28, 2026. This places it just 5.2% above its 52-week low of $139.14 and a steep 42.9% below its 52-week high of $256.08. The move was accompanied by a massive surge in volume, indicating a high degree of conviction among sellers.

• Closed at $146.32, near the low of its daily range of $139.14 – $150.73.
• Trading volume surged to 1.5 million shares, well above the average of 273,000.
• The stock broke below key technical levels, including its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

How Is The Money Flowing?

The aggressive selling pressure suggests a significant institutional exit. While retail investors may have been shaken by the headline revenue miss, the high volume and sharp, sustained decline are more characteristic of large funds reducing their positions. The break of the psychological $150 level likely triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders, exacerbating the move.

• The high trading volume points to institutional distribution.
• The stock sliced through the psychologically important $150 level.
• Despite the drop, overall institutional ownership remains high at around 97%.

Understanding trade mechanics, money flow, and price behavior can give you and edge. See more.

What Next?

FADE the initial panic, but exercise caution. While the revenue miss and guidance are concerning, the underlying business drivers, such as the shift to higher-margin technology solutions and a large new contract in Puerto Rico, remain intact. The key level to watch is the 52-week low of $139.14. A break below this level could signal further downside, but if it holds, it could present a compelling entry point for a longer-term rebound. The current valuation at 26 times FCF is also becoming more reasonable.

That’s it for now, but so much more goes into evaluating a stock from long-term investment perspective. We make it easy with our Investment Highlights

Not comfortable with BMI stock? Consider PORTFOLIOS instead.

The Best Investors Think In Portfolios

Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.