What To Expect From Booking Holdings Stock Post Q3?

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Upside
1985
Market
2021
Trefis
BKNG: Booking Holdings logo
BKNG
Booking Holdings

Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), the world’s largest online travel agency that offers services from lodging to airline tickets to car rentals, is scheduled to announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 2. We expect the company’s stock to likely trade higher with revenues and earnings beating market expectations marginally. Booking’s Q2 financial results showed a massive rebound from extremely difficult conditions in the year-earlier quarter thanks to a significant recovery in tourism. The company expects to see higher gross bookings on the books than 2019 levels, which should result in record revenue for the third quarter, which is also the seasonally largest revenue quarter. All this indicating setting expectations of upside recovery in the stock price levels which have been down nearly 22% this year.

Our forecast indicates that Booking Holdings’ valuation is $2021 per share, which is 8% higher than the current market price. Look at our interactive dashboard analysis on Booking Holdings Earnings Preview: What To Expect in Q3? for more details.

(1) Revenues expected to be slightly ahead of the consensus estimates

Trefis estimates Booking Holdings’ Q3 2022 revenues to be around $6.1 Bil, a slight increase from the consensus estimate level. In Q2 2022, the online travel agency nearly doubled its total revenue on a year-over-year basis, to just over $4.29 billion. That was on a foundation of $34.5 billion in total bookings, up 57% from the prior-year period. To break down the Q2 revenue further – agency revenues were up 73% y-o-y, merchant revenues grew 165% y-o-y, and advertising and other revenues were up 43% y-o-y. In fact, BKNG’s revenue for the first two quarters of 2022 came in at just under $7 billion, which exceeds the $6.7 billion it reported in the first half of 2019 at pre-pandemic levels. For the full-year 2022, we expect Booking Holdings revenues to grow 60% y-o-y to $17.5 billion.

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(2) EPS likely to be marginally above the consensus estimates

Booking Holdings’ Q3 2022 earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at $51.23 as per Trefis analysis, marginally beating the consensus estimate of $49.85. In Q2, the company flipped to a non-GAAP net profit of $776 million ($19.08 per share) from its year-ago loss of $105 million. On a GAAP basis, Booking Holdings reported $1.0 billion in operating income (up from an operating loss in the same period last year) and $21.07 in GAAP diluted EPS (up from a loss in the same period last year).

(3) Stock price estimate higher than the current market price

Going by our Booking Holdings’ Valuation, with an earnings per share estimate of around $101.44 and a P/E multiple of 19.9x in fiscal 2022, this translates into a price of $2021, which is 8% higher than the current market price.

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. BKNG Peers shows how Booking Holdings stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Booking Holdings has fallen 22% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can BKNG stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 BKNG Return 0% -22% 28%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -19% 73%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -22% 208%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/1/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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