How Will BJ’s Wholesale Club Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE:BJ) is set to report its earnings on Friday, November 21, 2025. The company has $12 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $21 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $861 Mil in operating profits and net income of $579 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding BJ stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
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BJ’s Wholesale Club’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 7.4%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -5.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/22/2025 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -9.2% |
| 5/22/2025 | -1.3% | -5.5% | -2.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | 12.2% | 8.5% | 18.4% |
| 11/21/2024 | 8.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| 8/22/2024 | -6.8% | -5.8% | -7.6% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 10.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| 11/17/2023 | -4.8% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
| 8/22/2023 | -5.1% | -7.2% | 5.6% |
| 5/23/2023 | -7.3% | -11.6% | -10.8% |
| 3/9/2023 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 11/17/2022 | -5.6% | -6.9% | -12.7% |
| 8/18/2022 | 7.2% | 3.7% | 13.5% |
| 5/19/2022 | 7.4% | 3.0% | 8.5% |
| 3/3/2022 | -13.2% | -7.8% | 2.6% |
| 11/18/2021 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 9.1% |
| 8/19/2021 | 4.0% | 9.1% | 13.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | -5.0% | -7.9% | -6.3% |
| 3/4/2021 | -1.1% | 12.8% | 15.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -7.2% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 19.9% | 12.9% | 18.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -11.6% | -12.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -34.9% | -30.6% | -13.7% |
| 3Y History | -10.7% | 0.2% | -17.1% |
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