How Will BigBear.ai Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI), an AI solutions provider specializing in national security, is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, August 11, 2025. Based on historical data, there’s a strong likelihood of the stock reacting negatively to the announcement. Over the past five years, BBAI has experienced a one-day decline following earnings in 86% of instances. The median one-day loss was -14%, with the maximum loss reaching -31.6%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can provide an edge, though the actual results compared to consensus estimates will be the primary driver. This can be approached in two ways:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical odds and take a position before the earnings report is released.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings and position yourself accordingly once the results are public.

For the upcoming quarter, analysts anticipate revenues of approximately $40.6 million, a modest 2% increase from the $39.8 million reported in the same quarter last year.

From a fundamental perspective, the company has a current market capitalization of $1.8 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $160 million in revenue but reported an operating loss of -$54 million and a net loss of -$232 million.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – What’s Happening With JOBY Stock?

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BigBear.ai’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 14 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 2 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 14% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 17% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 2 positive returns = 1.3%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -14%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below. Related – How BigBear.ai Is Riding The Defense AI Wave

BBAI 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. Also, see – Buy or Sell BBAI Stock.

BBAI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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