What’s Next After A 40% Rise in Barrick Mining Stock?

Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE: B), appears well positioned for significant upside, with a realistic path toward the mid-$30s and potentially even $40+ over the next two to three years if key drivers align. Despite a sharp 40%+ rally so far this year, the stock still trades at a reasonable forward price to earnings of about 11x on current estimates—leaving room for multiple expansion if earnings continue to accelerate.

In 2024, Barrick posted net income of approximately $3.09 billion, and adjusted net earnings per share surged 84% year-over-year in Q1 2025, showcasing solid momentum even as production challenges emerged. For 2025, gold production is expected to range between 3.15 and 3.50 million ounces, down from about 3.9 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali earlier this year. However, copper now represents roughly 20% of Barrick’s output and is projected to reach 30% by 2029, reflecting the company’s strategic shift toward a more balanced metals portfolio. Separately,  if you are looking for potential gains with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative—having surpassed the performance of the S&P 500 and produced returns of over 91% since its inception.

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Tier-One asset pipeline: Growth prospects remain compelling, anchored by Tier-One projects such as Reko Diq in Pakistan and the Lumwana super-pit expansion in Zambia. These developments, expected to ramp up toward the end of the decade, could boost Barrick’s gold-equivalent production by about 30% by 2030. The company’s reserves are also robust, with 89 million ounces of gold and 18 million tonnes of copper, and it has successfully replaced more than 100% of mined reserves since 2019—a clear differentiator in the mining sector.

EBITDA margins at 50%+ and 10x growth in free cash flows: On the financial front, Barrick continues to enjoy favorable pricing conditions. In Q1 2025, average realized gold prices were approximately $2,898 per ounce, lifting margins even as expansion and maintenance plans moved forward. Despite some commodity price normalization for copper ($3.96–4.00/lb), the firm maintained strong margin discipline with EBITDA margins above 50% and free cash flow at $375 million, which grew more than 10x compared to the first quarter of 2024!

In terms of valuation upside, if Barrick can double its EPS from $1.22 in 2024 to a range of $2.40 to $2.80 by 2026, and the price-to-earnings multiple remains at the current 11x, the stock could rise to $26–$31. Under a more optimistic scenario—where EPS reaches $3.50 and multiples climb higher—Barrick could break into the $40 range, particularly if gold prices remain closer to the current $3,300 and copper continues its strength.

That said, risks persist. The Mali dispute remains a near-term overhang, having removed about 14% of Barrick’s output and an estimated $1 billion in revenue for 2025. Although negotiations to resolve the conflict have advanced, the timing of a full restart is uncertain. Additionally, major growth projects like Reko Diq and Lumwana will not deliver material cash flows until 2028, making Barrick heavily reliant on existing operations and commodity price stability in the interim. A sharp pullback in gold or copper prices would weigh on margins and delay upside expectations.

Despite these challenges, Barrick’s fundamentals are strong: net debt is low at roughly $600 million, the balance sheet is healthy, and share buybacks continue to enhance per-share value. If current trends persist—gold prices elevated, Mali operations restored, and project execution on track—the stock has a clear path to re-rate, with $30–$35 as a base case and $40+ an achievable bull-case scenario over the next two to three years.

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