What’s Next for Barrick Gold Stock After An Upbeat Q4?

February 18th, 2025 by Trefis Team
GOLD: Barrick Mining logo
GOLD
Barrick Mining

Barrick Gold stock (NYSE: GOLD) delivered a solid Q4 2024 and full-year performance, driven by higher production, lower costs, and improved cash flow. Net earnings for 2024 surged 69% year-over-year to $2.14 billion. Operating cash flow increased 20% to $4.5 billion, while free cash flow more than doubled to $1.3 billion. ​The stock witnessed a very slight increase post the results announcement.

How Did Barrick Gold Fare In Q4?

Gold production increased 15% in Q4, reaching 3.91 million ounces for the full year. Copper production saw a 33% jump in Q4, totaling 195,000 tonnes in 2024. The company successfully met its annual production guidance, with growth in key operations, particularly in North America and Africa​. The gold cost of sales dropped 3%, and total cash costs decreased 5%, contributing to strong margins​. Higher gold and copper prices in 2024 supported revenue growth and margin expansion. Copper prices benefited from global supply constraints and increasing demand for renewable energy and electrification​. The company reported record-high EBITDA and free cash flow strengthening its financial flexibility. EBITDA increased 30% to $5.19 billion, marking its highest level in over a decade​. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

 

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Image by PublicDomainPictures from Pixabay

What Does This Mean For Barrick Gold Stock?

Overall, the performance of GOLD stock with respect to the index over the last 4-year period has been quite volatile. Returns for the stock were -13% in 2021, -6% in 2022, 8% in 2023, and -12% in 2024.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, is less volatile. And it has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and multiple wars, could GOLD face a similar situation as it did in 2021, 2023, and 2024 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a strong jump?

Barrick Gold’s strong production growth, cost reductions, higher commodity prices, and efficient capital allocation led to a record-breaking year in 2024. While operational risks and geopolitical challenges remain, the company is well-positioned for continued success in 2025. The company expects gold output forecast to be between 3.15 – 3.5 million ounces, while copper production outlook is expected to increase to 200,000 – 230,000 tonnes, supported by expansion at the Lumwana mine. The company also announced plans for a 35-day shutdown at the Pueblo Viejo mine in Q1 2025 for upgrades. While our Barrick Gold valuation implies a 16% upside from current levels, macro economic factors like gold price trends, Fed policy changes, and geopolitical developments, will likely play a significant role in determining Barrick Gold’s stock performance.
 Returns Feb 2025
MTD [1]		 Since start
of 2024 [1]		 2017-25
Total [2]
 GOLD Return 10% 2% 32%
 S&P 500 Return 1% 28% 173%
 Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio -2% 21% 719%

[1] Returns as of 2/18/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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