How Will Broadcom Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, September 4, 2025. Historical data suggests that buying AVGO stock before the earnings release has been a profitable strategy. Over the last five years, the stock has experienced positive one-day returns in 75% of instances, with a median gain of 3.0% and a maximum single-day return of 24.4%.

For an event-driven trader, a solid understanding of historical patterns can be advantageous, though the outcome is heavily dependent on how the company’s results align with market expectations. Two distinct approaches can be considered for this type of event:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Based on historical probabilities, one can establish a position before the earnings announcement.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: An investor may also analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform their trading decisions.

Consensus estimates for the upcoming report project earnings of $1.66 per share on revenues of $15.82 billion. This represents notable growth from the prior year’s quarter, which saw earnings of $1.24 per share and revenues of $13.07 billion.

Fundamentally, Broadcom has a market capitalization of $1.4 trillion. The company has demonstrated strong financial performance over the last twelve months, with $57 billion in revenue, $21 billion in operating profits, and $13 billion in net income.

That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Ethereum Play: BMNR Stock To $100?

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Image by foto qin from Pixabay

Broadcom’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 15 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 75% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 15 positive returns = 3.0%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -5.5%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

AVGO 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. Also, see – Buy or Fear AVGO Stock?

AVGO Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Broadcom stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Broadcom. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

AVGO Correlation With Peer Earnings

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Broadcom, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates