How Will AvalonBay Communities Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $24 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.0 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $920 Mil in operating profits and net income of $1.1 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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AvalonBay Communities’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 1.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -0.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -4.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | -5.1% | -5.0% | -0.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.5% | -1.0% | -1.5% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.1% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | 4.0% | 1.5% | 8.9% |
| 4/26/2024 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.1% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | -3.1% | -0.5% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.6% | -0.8% | 5.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | 3.9% | 3.9% | -0.3% |
| 2/9/2023 | -0.7% | -0.3% | -8.8% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| 7/28/2022 | 5.0% | -0.0% | 5.6% |
| 4/28/2022 | -0.5% | -7.6% | -14.7% |
| 2/3/2022 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -1.7% |
| 10/28/2021 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.1% | 0.2% | -1.3% |
| 4/29/2021 | 0.1% | -1.8% | 6.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -0.7% | -1.1% | -1.6% |
| Max Positive | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -7.6% | -14.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -22.9% | -12.2% | 0.8% |
| 3Y History | -33.3% | -31.4% | -26.1% |
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