How Will Atmos Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $31 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Atmos Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 1.8%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -0.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | 1.8% | 3.2% | 10.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.7% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.9% | -6.4% | -5.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 1.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 2.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.7% | -2.3% | -4.1% |
| 2/6/2024 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 4.1% |
| 11/8/2023 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | -2.6% | -3.3% | -3.9% |
| 5/3/2023 | 4.5% | 5.7% | 2.1% |
| 2/7/2023 | -0.4% | -1.0% | -4.8% |
| 11/9/2022 | 8.4% | 8.9% | 14.8% |
| 8/3/2022 | -2.9% | -4.0% | -3.2% |
| 5/4/2022 | -0.2% | -2.3% | 1.3% |
| 2/8/2022 | 2.1% | -1.0% | 7.0% |
| 11/10/2021 | 0.7% | -0.2% | 2.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | 1.9% | 1.8% | -0.5% |
| 5/5/2021 | 0.8% | -3.2% | -1.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -2.3% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.4% | 8.9% | 14.8% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -6.4% | -5.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 21.9% | 34.9% | -13.1% |
| 3Y History | 71.1% | 26.5% | -1.6% |
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