How Will AeroVironment Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV), a leading drone manufacturer, is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. For event-driven traders, analyzing historical patterns can provide a strategic advantage. You can use this information in two ways: either position yourself before the earnings release based on historical trends or trade after the announcement by examining the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns.

Over the past five years, AeroVironment’s stock has shown a negative one-day return in 55% of cases following an earnings announcement. The median negative return was -6.6%, with the largest one-day drop being -15.9%.

For the latest quarter, the consensus estimates are earnings of $0.34 per share on sales of $437 million. This compares to the same quarter last year, which saw earnings of $0.89 per share on sales of $189 million.

Currently, the company has a market capitalization of $11.6 billion. In the last twelve months, it generated $821 million in revenue, with an operating profit of $59 million and a net income of $44 million.

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AeroVironment’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 6.1%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -6.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

AVAV 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

AVAV Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of AeroVironment stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before AeroVironment. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

AVAV Correlation With Peer Earnings

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