Has The Story Under ATI Stock Run Out?
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ATI Inc. (ATI) stock returned 90.9% in the year to October 23, 2026, outpacing the 15.1% return for the S&P 500. The shares were already climbing prior to this period, gaining 63.0% in the six months before the measured year began. Over the course of the year, ATI sold more of its alloys to aerospace and defense customers while earning more on each dollar of sales. When could you first have seen that shift?
ATI Pointed To Aerospace On A February 2025 Call
ATI management identified this transition during a February 4, 2025 call, more than eight months before the period measured here. Aerospace and defense had accounted for more than 65% of fourth-quarter revenue, and management said 2024 revenue of nearly $4.4 billion was ATI’s highest since 2012. That told you the source of the company’s growth, and it was public from that day forward.
Trusting that message was not easy. Just three months earlier on an October 29, 2024 call, management detailed operational challenges during the quarter, a Boeing work stoppage and a financial result below its guided range.
Subsequent months added to the February call. On June 12, 2025, ATI opened a facility in Pageland, South Carolina, that makes titanium alloy sheet for aerospace. A financial report filed on July 31, 2025, then showed an operating margin of 14.0% for the quarter ended June 29, 2025, up from 12.6% a year earlier.
How Much Of ATI Became Aerospace And Defense?
By the fourth quarter of 2025, aerospace and defense represented 68% of ATI’s sales, a larger share than a year before, the company said on February 3, 2026. The margin kept widening as well: the operating margin reached 17.0% in the quarter ended June 28, 2026, higher again than in the same quarter of 2025.
Investors paid more for each dollar of that profit. ATI shares traded at 27.2 times trailing earnings at the end of September 2025, and at 54.3 times a year later. The stock also outpaced two peers over the measured year, as Astronics returned 21.5% and Firefly Aerospace fell 30.5%.
Is ATI’s Aerospace Evidence Still Building?
Management said on the call that defense revenue rose 36% from a year earlier to reach an all-time high. ATI also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1.135 billion to $1.185 billion, up from $1.010 billion to $1.060 billion. Management said lead times on premium quality titanium had stretched to 20 months, which it read as demand still running ahead of its capacity.
ATI’s order backlog, a record $4.4 billion in the second quarter and up 18% from a year earlier, is the number to watch when the company reports its third quarter in October 2026.
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