Johnson Controls International Reports Soon: How Has The Stock Reacted To Past Earnings?
Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The company has a market value of about $87.5 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $25.0 billion in revenue and $3.6 billion in operating profit, with net income of $3.6 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Johnson Controls International stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Johnson Controls International’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 55% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 50%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 4.4%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -6.0%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 11.3% and -9.3%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/29/2026 | -0.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.2% | -2.6% | 1.8% |
| 2/4/2026 | 4.4% | 11.9% | 10.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 8.8% | 9.8% | 2.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.4% | -4.5% | -2.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.1% | 8.2% | 15.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | 11.3% | 15.4% | 4.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 8.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.6% | -3.4% | 2.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.1% | -0.9% | 10.0% |
| 1/30/2024 | -3.8% | -5.8% | 5.0% |
| 12/12/2023 | -6.0% | -4.7% | 2.9% |
| 8/2/2023 | -9.3% | -12.4% | -15.7% |
| 5/5/2023 | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| 2/1/2023 | -4.6% | -7.3% | -8.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.7% | 11.8% | 19.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| 5/4/2022 | -8.7% | -17.3% | -10.2% |
| 2/2/2022 | 0.01% | -6.7% | -10.6% |
| 11/5/2021 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -5.3% | -10.2% |
| Max Positive | 11.3% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -17.3% | -15.7% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years, none of these correlations is strong: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms. Over the last three years, though, the early move has tended to partly reverse in the weeks that followed, at -0.69 for both 21-day pairs across 12 releases. That is a tendency, not a rule.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.34 | -0.16 | -0.27 |
| 3 Years | -0.01 | -0.69 | -0.69 |
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