AST SpaceMobile Stock To $54?

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock has fallen 8.9% during the past day, and is currently trading at $78.05. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to reduce exposure to ASTS stock. We are primarily concerned current valuation and a price of $54 may not be out of reach. We believe there is not much to fear in ASTS stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $21 Bil in market cap, AST SpaceMobile provides space-based cellular broadband, delivering mobile internet connectivity anywhere on land, sea, or in flight, including areas without terrestrial mobile coverage.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how ASTS is valued vs broader market. For more details see: ASTS Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• AST SpaceMobile has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 270.6% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 641% from $2.5 Mil to $19 Mil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 1239.9% to $15 Mil in the most recent quarter from $1.1 Mil a year ago.

This table highlights how ASTS is growing vs broader market. For more details see: ASTS Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• ASTS last 12 month operating income was $-274 Mil representing operating margin of -1479.5%
• With cash flow margin of -890.0%, it generated nearly $-165 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, ASTS generated nearly $-304 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -1639.6%

This table highlights how ASTS profitability vs broader market. For more details see: ASTS Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong

• ASTS Debt was $722 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $21 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.4%
• ASTS Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $1.2 Bil of $2.6 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 47.2%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Strong

ASTS has been more resilient than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• ASTS stock fell 87.8% from a high of $22.50 on 9 February 2021 to $2.74 on 23 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 August 2024
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $95.69 on 15 October 2025 , and currently trades at $78.05

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• ASTS stock fell 7.4% from a high of $14.35 on 28 December 2020 to $13.29 on 30 December 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 January 2021

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read ASTS Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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