Can AST SpaceMobile Stock Fall 40%?

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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares lost 36.4% in the month to November 3, 2026, compared with a 2.6% decline for the S&P 500. A 40% drop from current levels would not be new for the stock. In four of the five market shocks it has traded through, the stock fell 40% or more from a high close to a subsequent low. Holders are betting that AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites start earning steady revenue while its cash lasts. So how far has the stock fallen against the market in past shocks, and how long did it take to come back?

In Market Shocks, AST SpaceMobile Usually Falls Further

AST SpaceMobile recorded its steepest decline from the first day of a shock during the 2022 inflation shock. The stock dropped 38.0%, compared with a 24.0% decline for the S&P 500. From its peak close to its trough during that period, shares fell 57.6% against a 24.5% drop for the index. Measured from each shock’s opening day, the stock lost 27.4% on average across all five, roughly double the 13.4% decline in the index.

Shares eventually returned to their previous highs after each of those drops, though the recoveries took time. The median wait was 7.8 months from the low. It took 20.9 months to rebound following the 2022 shock and 13.5 months after the 2023 banking crisis.

Sales Rose At AST SpaceMobile, But Debt Tops Cash

Revenue reached $115 million in the twelve months to June 2026, up from $4.89 million a year earlier. The company posted quarterly sales of $54.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by $14.7 million and $31.5 million in the first two quarters of 2026. However, AST SpaceMobile is spending far more than it brings in: free cash flow for those twelve months was negative $1,737 million, compared with negative $677 million a year earlier.

Debt has climbed too. Total debt reached $2,994 million on June 30, 2026, up from $506 million a year earlier. This balance exceeds the $2,288 million in cash and short-term investments the company held on the same date.

AST SpaceMobile Adds Costs Before Most 2026 Revenue Arrives

Operating costs are still rising. Management said on August 10 it expected adjusted operating expenses, excluding cost of revenues, to range from $105 million to $115 million in the third quarter of 2026 as the company absorbed the cost of a larger workforce. AST SpaceMobile reported an adjusted loss of $0.77 per share in the second quarter, wider than analysts expected, according to August 11 news reports.

The company has also taken on additional debt since June. In July, it sold $1.15 billion of convertible senior notes due in 2034. Separately, September 28 news reports stated that AST SpaceMobile faces a new securities lawsuit, adding to investor concerns over potential share dilution and competition from SpaceX.

Most of the revenue guided for 2026 has yet to arrive. AST SpaceMobile booked $46.2 million in the first half of 2026, against the $150 million to $200 million that management reaffirmed for the full year on August 10. Management expects sales to be weighted toward the fourth quarter. AST SpaceMobile is expected to report its third-quarter results in November 2026, and its revenue against that full-year guide is the number to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On ASTS?

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