Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Rides A 5-Day Winning Streak To A 19% Gain
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock has risen for 5 consecutive trading days, gaining 18.9% over that stretch. That added about $6.7 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $42.1 billion. The stock closed at $33.26 on Tuesday, November 3, 18.6% below its 52-week high of $40.87 and 20.9% above its low of $27.52.
CMG Versus The S&P 500
Returns for CMG and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Tuesday, November 3 and including dividends:
| Return Period | CMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 5 Days (Current Streak) | 18.9% | -2.0% |
| 1 Month (21 Trading Days) | 7.8% | -2.6% |
| 3 Months (63 Trading Days) | -3.6% | -1.7% |
| Year To Date | -10.1% | 11.6% |
| 1 Year (252 Trading Days) | 5.0% | 11.9% |
A Stock-Specific Run, Or A Market Move?
The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 2.0% over the same 5 sessions, including dividends, against Chipotle Mexican Grill’s +18.9%. 9 other S&P 500 stocks are currently on winning streaks of 5 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is down 3.6%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 58 sessions of that window it was down 18.9%.
Is The Business Keeping Up With The Stock?
On the fundamentals, revenue grew 7.9% over the last twelve months, against a median of 7.4% for S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary stocks; its operating margin is 14.9%, versus a median of 14.9%; and the stock trades at 30.6 times trailing earnings against a median of 19.5. The business gives the rally real support, with revenue growth above the median and margins above the median.
A climb like this is worth respecting, and worth testing. Our Guidance Momentum screen tracks the stocks whose companies just raised their own forward numbers.
For anyone who would rather back the theme than one company, a consumer discretionary ETF like XLY holds the whole group, not just this stock. It is still a concentrated bet on one theme, which is the gap the portfolio below is built to close.
Momentum Is A Tailwind, Not A Plan
Riding a stock that rises every day feels effortless, and that is precisely the danger: the same momentum that built this run can reverse without notice, and one name’s reversal should never be able to reset your whole year.
That is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is for: about 30 quality businesses screened for the fundamentals that survive momentum’s mood swings, held with rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Watch the runs; own the resilience.