Up 4x This Year, Does AST SpaceMobile Stock’s Rally Have Legs?

AST SpaceMobile stock (NASDAQ:ASTS) surged almost 32% last week and is up nearly 4x year-to-date. The company is building a space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to regular smartphones without extra hardware for commercial and government use. The recent jump followed the announcement of a major commercial partnership with Verizon to provide space-based cellular coverage across the continental U.S. starting in 2026. This agreement builds on an initial strategic partnership from last year by formalizing the commercial rollout, integrating AST’s satellite network with Verizon’s terrestrial infrastructure, and extending Verizon’s 850 MHz spectrum coverage to remote areas. The deal strengthens AST’s position against competitors like SpaceX’s Starlink and helps to bolster its relationships with major U.S. telecom carriers.

ASTS stock has jumped meaningfully recently, but there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. On the other hand, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Separately, consider what could long-term performance be for your portfolio if you combined 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with equities.

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What Does AST Do?

There’s an ongoing race to build broadband services via satellites, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX holding the lead with more than 8,000 Starlink satellites already in orbit. However, AST SpaceMobile’s strategy differs in important ways. While Starlink targets consumers directly by selling hardware and internet subscriptions, AST’s satellites are designed to function like space-based cell towers, integrating directly into the networks of existing mobile operators such as AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Verizon.

This approach means that users can access connectivity from these satellites with their regular smartphones and existing SIM cards helping to eliminate coverage dead zones. During its Q2 2025 earnings update, the company said that it had confirmed a plan to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026 to power cellular-based broadband networks. The company intends to have orbital launches every one to two months on average during 2025 and 2026 and noted that the satellites are fully funded.

A Good Proposition For Wireless Carriers?

For carriers, the value proposition is significant. Partnering with AST allows them to extend 4G and 5G coverage into deserts, oceans, mountain regions, and other under-served areas where traditional towers are uneconomical. This enables them to sell truly nationwide or even global coverage to customers. These benefits can improve customer satisfaction and unlock new revenue streams without carriers needing to bear the heavy cost of rural infrastructure.

Rather than marketing directly to consumers, AST earns revenue by charging carriers for access to its satellite capacity, with pricing based on usage or through long-term agreements.  This approach could give AST a recurring, high-margin revenue base while locking in deep partnerships across the global telecom industry. AST has reportedly partnered with over 50 mobile network operators globally, allowing them to reach nearly 3 billion subscribers.

Valuation Is All About The Future

With a market cap of about $31 billion, ASTS trades at over 500x consensus 2025 revenues of $60 million and 120x estimated 2026 revenue. This is a steep valuation given that the company is in its early stage of operations. However, growth has been rapid, albeit on a small base, with revenues rising 249% over the past year to $4.9 million. See ASTS Revenue Comparison Losses remain heavy, with operating losses standing at $260 million over the last 12 months. ASTS has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.

During the 2022 inflation shock market crash, ASTS stock fell 68.5% from a high of $22.50 on 9 February 2021 to $7.08 on 1 June 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500. Read ASTS Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past. That said, the company still has a strong balance sheet, with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, a debt-to-equity ratio of just 4.3%, and cash making up nearly half its total assets. This financial flexibility should give AST the runway to execute on its satellite deployment plan, though investors will need to be patient as the company shifts from technology rollout to commercial-scale revenue generation.

Resilient demand is one of the factors we take into account in our High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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