The Bear Case: How APP Behaves During Market Shocks
Holding equities means accepting volatility as the price of long-term compounding. Across the 5 major systemic shocks where AppLovin (APP) traded, the stock posted an average drawdown of -36%. For context, the S&P 500 averaged a -13% decline during those same periods.
If you are an investor in APP stock, you might be asking: if the macroeconomic environment fractures, how far can this stock actually fall?
The answer depends entirely on the transmission mechanism of the crisis. Not all market shocks are created equal. To accurately price the risk, we have to isolate how APP reacts to different types of systemic stress.
What Is The Stock’s Greatest Vulnerability?
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When dissecting these past crashes by their root cause, a clear pattern emerges: APP faces its most severe structural headwinds during ‘Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk’ environments. While broad market equities are affected by such environment, APP has historically suffered outsized downside when this mechanism triggers. During these events, the stock has averaged a -56% decline.
To internalize the risk inherent in this stock, here is exactly how it behaved during its most severe tests across three distinct macroeconomic environments.
How Does It Handle A Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk Shock?
2025 US Tariff Shock (Feb 2025 to Jun 2025)
The Trump administration announced 145% tariffs on Chinese imports on April 2, 2025, representing the most aggressive trade action since the 1930s.
Equities and the dollar fell simultaneously, signaling lost confidence. Supply chain disruptions and small-cap input inflation drove broad declines, affecting nearly all sectors.
APP stock reaction vs other assets: The stock fell -56%, while the S&P declined -19% and bonds saw -3.8% move
What Happens During A Rate & Valuation Shock Scare?
2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market (Jan 2022 to Oct 2022)
CPI hit 9.1%, forcing aggressive tightening since Volcker. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further spiked global energy and food prices.
Stocks and bonds fell simultaneously, eliminating the 60/40 hedge. Rising rates crushed long-duration assets until CPI declined in October 2022.
APP stock reaction vs other assets: The stock fell -82%, while the S&P declined -24% and bonds saw -35% move
Can It Survive A Credit & Liquidity Crises Crisis?
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis (Feb 2023 to Jul 2023)
SVB’s long-duration Treasury portfolio was destroyed by rising rates. A March 8, 2023 loss disclosure triggered an instantaneous bank run accelerated by social media.
The FDIC seized SVB, Signature, and First Republic. Contagion was contained through deposit backstops and the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program emergency liquidity.
APP stock reaction vs other assets: The stock fell -22%, while the S&P declined -6.7% and bonds saw -4.3% move
Past Market Shock Drawdowns Summarized For APP
| Shock Event | S&P | Bonds | Sector | Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market | -24% | -35% | -33% | -82% |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -6.7% | -4.3% | -5.1% | -22% |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -9.5% | -17% | -10% | None |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | -7.8% | -1.2% | -17% | -20% |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -19% | -3.8% | -26% | -56% |
So What Can You Do For Your Investments?
Ultimately, surviving a market crash requires knowing what breaks your specific holdings. For APP, the kryptonite is clearly Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk. By sizing your positions with these specific drawdowns in mind, you can remove emotion from the equation entirely.
Adoptin objective and rule-based portfolio management is the most effective way to protect capital when the macro environment inevitably fractures again. Trefis High Quality Portfolio is designed with such priciples in mind, and has returned > 105% since inception.