Note: ANF’s FY’21 ended on January 29, 2022.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), a specialty retailer selling casual clothing and footwear, has increased by 15% over the last ten trading days (two weeks) and currently stands at around $25. Inflation and job losses are forcing consumers to cut back their discretionary spending, but still, people are buying clothes as they return to traditional work locations and resume social activities. There is optimism after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results recently. While the company’s overall revenue declined 3% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $880 million, the company was able to reverse the trend of slowing domestic sales, which grew 3% after falling 4% in Q2.
Hollister, the largest brand by revenue, saw sales decline by 12% y-o-y in Q3. Due to the company’s cost base and significant square footage, ANF could continue to face significant challenges with its Hollister brand. With the current macro environment likely to remain challenged as rates rise, we expect the company’s stock price to remain pressured in the near term. For the full year, ANF lifted its sales and profit forecast. Management now sees sales decreasing by 2% to 3% in 2022, compared to its prior projection of a mid-single-digit decline. The company also expects an operating margin of 2% to 3%, up from 1% to 3%.
Now, is ANF stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 45% chance of a rise in ANF stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of ANF’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using the last ten years data
 Returns of 10% or higher over a five-day period on 197 occasions out of 2518 (8%); Stock rose in the next five days in 93 of these 197 instances (47%)
 Returns of 15% or higher over a ten-day period on 198 occasions out of 2517 (8%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 85 of these 198 instances (43%)
 Returns of 10% or higher over a twenty-one-day period on 602 occasions out of 2516 (24%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 272 of these 602 instances (45%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. ANF Peers shows how Abercrombie & Fitch stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
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