AMZN Stock Falls -18% With A 9-day Losing Spree On AI Capex Shock
Amazon.com (AMZN) – a retailer offering consumer products, subscriptions, devices, and cloud services – hit a 9-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -18%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $473 Bil over the last 9 days and currently stands at $2.1 Tril.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 13.9% compared to -0.1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Q4 Earnings Report: $200B AI Capex Plan
- 2026 Capex guidance of $200B far exceeded estimates
- Free cash flow fell 71% to $11.2B amid heavy AI spending
- Impact: Sustained Institutional Selling, Stock Entered Bear Market
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in AMZN stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell AMZN).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -18% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for AMZN stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| 9D (Current Streak) | -18.2% | -2.0% |
| 1M (21D) | -16.0% | -1.3% |
| 3M (63D) | -18.6% | -0.2% |
| YTD 2026 | -13.9% | -0.1% |
| 2025 | 5.2% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 44.4% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 80.9% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: AMZN Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 81 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 44 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 23 | 18 |
| 4D | 25 | 14 |
| 5D | 13 | 9 |
| 6D | 11 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 9 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 81 | 44 |
Key Financials for Amazon.com (AMZN)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $638.0 Bil | $716.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $68.6 Bil | $80.0 Bil |
| Net Income | $59.2 Bil | $77.7 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $180.2 Bil | $213.4 Bil |
| Operating Income | $17.4 Bil | $25.0 Bil |
| Net Income | $21.2 Bil | $21.2 Bil |
The losing streak AMZN stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.