How Will Amgen Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, August 5, 2025. Historically, Amgen’s stock has demonstrated a tendency for negative one-day returns following its earnings announcements. Over the past five years, the stock has experienced declines in 58% of instances, with a median drop of -2.8% and a maximum one-day negative return of -7.2%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can offer a strategic advantage. While the actual results relative to consensus estimates will be a key determinant, two primary strategies can be considered:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Traders may choose to position themselves before the earnings release, based on the historical probabilities of post-earnings stock movement.
• Post-Earnings Analysis: Alternatively, traders can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform their positioning.

Analysts are forecasting Amgen to report earnings of $5.28 per share on revenue of $8.91 billion. This compares to the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $4.97 per share on revenue of $8.39 billion.

From a fundamental perspective, Amgen currently has a market capitalization of $160 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $34 billion in revenue, achieving $7.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

Pixabay

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Amgen’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
• The percentage figure changes slightly to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 8 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.8%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

AMGN 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

AMGN Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Amgen stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Amgen. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

AMGN Correlation With Peer Earnings

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Amgen, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates