Apple Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, November 2, 2026. The company has a market value of about $5.11 trillion. Over the last twelve months it generated $466.8 billion in revenue and $154.9 billion in operating profit, with net income of $128.9 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Apple stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
The Post-Earnings Record For Apple Stock
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative 1D returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 47% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 33%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 9 positive 1D returns is 3.3%, and the median of the 10 negative ones is -1.9%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 7.6% and -7.4%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | -7.4% | -6.3% | -4.0% |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 4.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.8% | -6.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.4% | 0.03% | 2.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.6% | -4.1% | -0.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.7% | -4.2% | -8.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.1% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -7.4% | -8.4% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.24 | -0.20 | -0.07 |
| 3 Years | -0.02 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) usually report about 2 to 7 days before Apple, and have already reported this season. This time, Alphabet stock fell 12.6% the day after its report, while Microsoft stock was nearly flat, down 0.2%. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Apple’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are MSFT (-0.29), GOOGL (0.20); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Apple’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| AAPL Earnings Date | AAPL 1D | MSFT 1D | GOOGL 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | -7.4% | 15.5% | -7.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | -3.9% | 10.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | -10.0% | n/a |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -2.9% | 2.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | 7.6% | 1.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -6.2% | n/a |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | -6.1% | 2.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -1.1% | -5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 1.8% | 10.2% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | -2.7% | -7.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | 3.1% | -9.5% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.8% | -3.8% | 5.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 0.1% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.4% | -0.6% | n/a |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.6% | -7.7% | -9.1% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.7% | 4.8% | -3.7% |
| 1/27/2022 | 7.0% | 2.8% | n/a |
| Correlation | – | -0.29 | 0.20 |
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