Management Set A Higher Bar For Micron Stock; Does The Chart Agree?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

On September 30, 2026, Micron Technology (MU) guided revenue of $60 billion to $63 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, more than it had just reported for the fourth quarter. The stock has fallen 12.3% since the close that day, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9%. A higher forecast alongside a falling share price is a reason to read the chart before taking the outlook at face value. So is Micron’s chart still on management’s side?

Micron’s Chart Agrees With Management Only In Part

Micron’s shares closed at $934.27 on October 29, 2026, below their 50-day average of $980.38, which represents the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. That slip sits inside a much longer climb. The 50-day average is still above the 200-day average of $743.87, the average close over the last 200 trading days.

Micron released the quarter’s results and the forecast together, and the stock rose 3.0% in the next session, against 0.2% for the S&P 500. From the close of that session to October 29, Micron stock fell 14.9%, while the index gained 0.7%. Most of that drop came between October 9 and October 16, when memory stocks sold off on worries about competition from China’s CXMT. The shares had their worst day in that stretch on October 22, falling 6.3%. Chip stocks fell broadly that day after Lam Research gave a weaker-than-expected forecast and Tesla cut its near-term spending target. The chart is therefore on management’s side in the long view, but not over the past month.

What Management Forecast For Fiscal 2027’s First Quarter

In Micron’s June 24, 2026 release, management guided fourth-quarter revenue of $50.0 billion, and the company went on to report $54.2 billion. That guide was $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion, so the result beat even its top end. The new forecast for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 sits about 13% above that result at its midpoint. Management said the forecast factors in single-digit growth in memory bits from the fourth quarter, for both DRAM and NAND.

The forecast is not higher on every line. Management projected a gross margin of 86.0% for the first quarter, a little below the 86.8% Micron reported for the fourth quarter.

The Outlook Beyond The First Quarter

Management expects margins to widen from first-quarter levels over the rest of fiscal 2027, as prices keep rising at a more moderate pace. Management also expects market conditions to stay tight through fiscal 2028, with start-up costs a partial offset to higher prices and a better product mix.

The business behind the forecast has grown fast, with Micron’s fourth-quarter revenue up 379.3% from a year earlier. Even so, the shares trade at 12.4 times the last twelve months’ earnings, against 22.8 for the S&P 500, so buyers pay less for each dollar of Micron’s profit than for the market’s. Those earnings come with a twelve-month net margin of 63.8%, Micron’s highest at any quarter end in Trefis data, which begins in fiscal 2017.

What buyers pay per dollar of today’s business shows how much of a price rests on growth to come. As a case in point, Tesla is worth about $1.5 trillion on $104 billion of revenue, about 14 times sales. Read Trefis Big Story: How Tesla Blundered.

Management’s revenue forecast is above the quarter Micron just reported, while the share price has slipped below its 50-day average. You do not yet know whether margins will expand after the first quarter and prices will keep rising, as management expects. When the company reports, expected in December 2026, Micron’s first-quarter revenue against management’s forecast is the number to watch.

Sitting On A Big Gain In Micron Technology?

After a run like this, the hard questions are personal: hold, trim or sell, and the tax on each. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to keep part of the upside, protect the rest and spread the tax over years.

Request A Free Strategy Review

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.