AAPL Stock Falls -5.4% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Downgrade, Cost Fears
Apple (AAPL) stock hit day 7-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -5.4%. The company market cap has crashed by about $219 Bil over the last 7 days, and currently stands at $3.9 Tril.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 4.7% compared to 1.1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Raymond James Downgrade to ‘Market Perform’
- Cited ‘valuation exhaustion’
- Concern that iPhone supercycle was priced in
- Impact: Sustained Institutional Selling, Negative Shift in Sentiment
[2] Surging Component Costs and Sector Rotation
- Projected 40-70% rise in DRAM prices
- Market shift to defensive sectors
- Impact: Margin Pressure Concerns, Broad sell-off in mega-cap tech
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in AAPL stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive (For details, see Buy or Sell AAPL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -5.4% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for AAPL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| 7D (Current Streak) | -5.4% | 0.2% |
| 1M (21D) | -6.8% | 1.1% |
| 3M (63D) | 0.5% | 2.5% |
| YTD 2026 | -4.7% | 1.1% |
| 2025 | 9.1% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 30.7% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 49.0% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: AAPL Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 38 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 21 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 11 | 7 |
| 4D | 19 | 8 |
| 5D | 8 | 0 |
| 6D | 0 | 3 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 3 |
| Total >=3 D | 38 | 21 |
Key Financials for Apple (AAPL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $383.3 Bil | $391.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $114.3 Bil | $123.2 Bil |
| Net Income | $97.0 Bil | $93.7 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $95.4 Bil | $94.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $29.6 Bil | $28.2 Bil |
| Net Income | $24.8 Bil | $23.4 Bil |
The losing streak AAPL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.