Vir Biotechnology (VIR)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $9.22 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vir Biotechnology (VIR)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $9.22Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -480 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -721% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 74% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -589%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -596% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -38% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -480 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -721% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 74% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -589%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -596% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -38% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Q4 2025 Earnings Beat and Strategic Collaboration: Vir Biotechnology reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 23-24, 2026, with revenue reaching $64.1 million, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.4 million. This surge was primarily driven by a $64.3 million license payment from Norgine. The company also reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.31, beating analysts' expectations of -$0.54. Concurrently, Vir Biotechnology announced a major strategic collaboration with Astellas for VIR-5500, a prostate cancer treatment candidate, valued at up to $1.7 billion, including $335 million in near-term capital. These dual catalysts led to a substantial increase in the stock price, with shares surging approximately 30.6% on February 24, 2026.
2. Positive Clinical Progress in Oncology and Infectious Diseases: The company delivered positive updated Phase 1 data for its oncology candidate, VIR-5500 (a PSMA-targeted PRO-XTEN® dual-masked T-cell engager), in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). This data, presented in February 2026, demonstrated dose-dependent anti-tumor activity and a favorable safety profile, with plans to initiate pivotal Phase 3 trials in 2027. In its chronic hepatitis delta (CHD) program, Vir Biotechnology announced the completion of enrollment for the ECLIPSE 1 Phase 3 trial in November 2025, approximately two months ahead of schedule. Further positive updated Phase 2 SOLSTICE data in January 2026 showed that the combination therapy of tobevibart and elebsiran achieved undetectable HDV RNA in 88% of evaluable participants at 96 weeks.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.2% change in VIR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 373.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.42 | 9.26 | 44.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14 | 67 | 373.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 63.5 | 19.4 | -69.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 139 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIR | 44.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.0% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 87.4% change in VIR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 362.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.94 | 9.26 | 87.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14 | 67 | 362.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 47.5 | 19.4 | -59.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 139 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 87.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIR | 87.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.5% | 23.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.4% change in VIR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.39 | 9.26 | 10.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64 | 67 | 4.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 18.0 | 19.4 | 7.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 137 | 139 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIR | 10.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.9% | 39.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -59.4% change in VIR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.80 | 9.26 | -59.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,580 | 67 | -95.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 19.4 | 908.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 133 | 139 | -4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -59.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VIR | -59.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.3% | 26.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VIR Return | 56% | -40% | -60% | -27% | -18% | 63% | -63% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 14% | -6% | -8% | 23% | 21% | 115% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VIR Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 57% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VIR Max Drawdown | -2% | -56% | -69% | -33% | -42% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -24% | -26% | -27% | -17% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GILD, REGN, AMGN, MRNA, ALNY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VIR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 970.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 148 days |
Compare to GILD, REGN, AMGN, MRNA, ALNY
In The Past
Vir Biotechnology's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 970.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About Vir Biotechnology (VIR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vir Biotechnology is like a specialized Gilead Sciences for a broader range of serious infectious diseases.
Think of Vir as a Moderna or Pfizer focused on immunological treatments and preventatives for various serious infectious diseases, not just COVID-19.AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Sotrovimab (VIR-7832) / Xevudy: A SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing monoclonal antibody for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 infection.
- VIR-2218: A therapeutic candidate currently in development for the treatment of hepatitis B virus.
- VIR-3434: A therapeutic candidate currently in development for the treatment of hepatitis B virus.
- VIR-2482: A therapeutic candidate currently in development for the prevention of influenza A virus.
- VIR-1111: A therapeutic candidate currently in development for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vir Biotechnology (VIR) primarily sells its therapeutic products and intellectual property to other companies, including pharmaceutical partners, for further development, commercialization, and distribution. Based on the provided background information, its major customers include:
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - NYSE: GSK
- Brii Biosciences Limited (BRII) - NASDAQ: BRII
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) - NASDAQ: ALNY
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Samsung Biologics Co.,Ltd. (207940.KS)
- WuXi Biologics (2269.HK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The continuous emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants that may reduce or eliminate the efficacy of its commercial-stage COVID-19 antibody treatment, Sotrovimab (Xevudy), thereby rendering the product obsolete or significantly less competitive.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullLatest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to VIR.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 229.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.2 |
| Rev LTM | 9,028 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,102 |
| FCF LTM | 2,115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,906 |
| CFO LTM | 2,751 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,436 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.2 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 19.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 28.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -37.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of powering the immune system to transform lives by discovering and developing medicines | 74 | 86 | |||
| Collaboration revenue | 1,505 | 917 | 0 | ||
| Contract revenue | 53 | 170 | 44 | ||
| Grant revenue | 35 | 8 | 9 | ||
| License revenue from a related party | 22 | 0 | 23 | ||
| Total | 74 | 86 | 1,616 | 1,095 | 76 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of powering the immune system to transform lives by discovering and developing medicines | -522 | ||||
| Total | -522 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/11/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.68 | $6.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 20.6% | 53.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 88.2% | 72.5% |
| Downside Capture | 160.25 | 212.66 |
| Upside Capture | 404.35 | 202.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.2% | 38.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.69 | 2.73 | 2.49 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 1.51 |
| Up Beta | 3.36 | 6.32 | 5.22 | 4.35 | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| Down Beta | 0.57 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| Up Capture | 725% | 558% | 448% | 434% | 320% | 283% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 29 | 63 | 120 | 352 |
| Down Capture | 238% | 74% | 136% | 143% | 147% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 58 | 124 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIR | 30.4% | 72.5% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.0% | 17.5% | 0.12 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 39.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 22.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIR | -25.8% | 74.9% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.5% | 14.5% | 0.33 | 26.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 29.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 21.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIR | -3.8% | 97.3% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.1% | 16.5% | 0.50 | 13.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 14.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | -0.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 9.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/23/2026 | 27.7% | 25.7% | |
| 11/5/2025 | -5.2% | 5.7% | 21.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -14.4% | -10.0% | 3.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | -3.6% | -19.8% | -2.9% |
| 2/26/2025 | -11.8% | -10.7% | -27.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 23.6% | 30.4% | 8.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.3% | -11.4% | -15.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 13.2% | 4.1% | 15.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 9.1% | 15.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -10.0% | -21.2% |
| Max Positive | 27.7% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| Max Negative | -44.9% | -39.0% | -46.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sato, Vicki L | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 5.93 | 22,000 | 130,383 | 6,912,616 | Form | |
| 2 | Svf, Endurance (cayman) Ltd | See footnote | Sell | 12032025 | 5.98 | 191,854 | 1,147,786 | 82,134,661 | Form | |
| 3 | Sato, Vicki L | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 6.00 | 22,000 | 132,070 | 7,134,149 | Form | |
| 4 | Svf, Endurance (cayman) Ltd | See footnote | Sell | 12012025 | 6.39 | 127,938 | 817,652 | 89,360,694 | Form | |
| 5 | Svf, Endurance (cayman) Ltd | See footnote | Sell | 12012025 | 6.44 | 61,493 | 396,015 | 89,649,810 | Form |
Industry Resources
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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