T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $199.98 | Market Cap: $224.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $199.98Market Cap: $224.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 5.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 27 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 27 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Key risksTMUS key risks include [1] a documented history of major data breaches resulting in significant financial penalties and [2] heightened regulatory scrutiny and compliance mandates stemming directly from these cybersecurity failures. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TMUS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
T-Mobile US (TMUS) experienced a significant stock decline of approximately 20.5% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by a combination of competitive pressures, cautious analyst sentiment, and broader sector challenges.
1. Growing Competitive Threat from Satellite Internet and Other Rivals: Jim Cramer highlighted that T-Mobile's stock was negatively impacted by concerns surrounding Elon Musk's satellite venture, suggesting it could significantly hurt T-Mobile's margins, a factor noted to have affected the stock since August 2025. Additionally, the broader telecom sector faced intense competitive dynamics, with companies like AT&T aggressively expanding 5G capacity through significant spectrum acquisitions, contributing to a shifting market sentiment.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets: Several investment firms adjusted their outlook for TMUS, with Wolfe Research lowering its price target and downgrading the entire telecom and cable group to "Market Weight" due to a "deterioration in key performance indicators observed in the second half of 2025". Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also reduced their price targets, reflecting a more cautious stance on the stock's future growth potential.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMUS Return | 74% | -14% | 21% | 15% | 40% | -9% | 165% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | -27% | 26% | 25% | -5% | 9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMUS Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 48% | 40% | 55% | 58% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMUS Max Drawdown | -5% | -21% | -12% | -10% | 0% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -10% | -38% | -16% | -15% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, TDS. See TMUS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 589.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,545 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CMCSA, LUMN, TMUS, SATS, SHEN
In The Past
T-Mobile US's stock fell -32.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -32.0% loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| T-Mobile US Earnings Notes | |||
| T-Mobile US Stock Hands $63 Bil Back - Worth a Look? | |||
| T-Mobile US Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| T-Mobile US vs Southern: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| T-Mobile US vs Nexstar Media: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does T-Mobile US Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than TMUS Stock: Pay Less Than T-Mobile US To Get More From CCL, FSLR | |||
| Better Bet Than TMUS Stock: Pay Less Than T-Mobile US To Get More From IRDM | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for T-Mobile US Stock with 9% Return (vs. 13% YTD) [7/24/2025] | Notification | ||
| TMUS Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 13th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 12th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 12th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 11th, 2025 | ||
| Ten-Year Tally: T-Mobile US Stock Delivers $63 Bil Gain | December 4th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TMUS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for T-Mobile US
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 142.8 |
| Rev LTM | 105,016 |
| Op Inc LTM | 20,956 |
| FCF LTM | 15,198 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,686 |
| CFO LTM | 29,028 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 25,266 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 142.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | 12.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid revenues | 48,692 | 45,919 | 42,562 | 36,306 | 22,673 |
| Equipment revenues | 14,138 | 17,130 | 20,727 | 17,312 | 9,840 |
| Prepaid revenues | 9,767 | 9,857 | 9,733 | 9,421 | 9,543 |
| Wholesale and other service revenues | 4,782 | 5,547 | 6,074 | ||
| Other revenues | 1,179 | 1,118 | 1,022 | 690 | 658 |
| Other service revenues | 2,078 | ||||
| Wholesale revenues | 2,590 | 1,279 | |||
| Roaming and other service revenues | 1,005 | ||||
| Total | 78,558 | 79,571 | 80,118 | 68,397 | 44,998 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.7% | 0.8% | 7.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.9% | 8.3% | 14.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.2% | -0.0% | 0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -0.8% | -4.2% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
