NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $180.16 | Market Cap: $4.4 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $180.16Market Cap: $4.4 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, CFO LTM is 103 Bil, FCF LTM is 97 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, CFO LTM is 103 Bil, FCF LTM is 97 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Financial Performance and Strong Guidance. NVIDIA consistently surpassed analyst expectations with record revenues and strong profitability. For Q4 Fiscal 2026 (ended January 25, 2026), the company reported $68.1 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst estimates of $65-66 billion, and diluted earnings per share of $1.76, against a forecast of $1.52. Furthermore, NVIDIA provided an upbeat Q1 Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of $78.0 billion at the midpoint, signaling an acceleration in growth to 77%.
2. Surging Data Center Revenue Driven by AI Demand. The Data Center segment was the primary growth engine, achieving record quarterly revenue of $62.3 billion in Q4 Fiscal 2026, marking a 75% year-over-year increase. This growth was propelled by "unprecedented" demand for NVIDIA's AI computing infrastructure and the rapid adoption of its new-generation Blackwell and Rubin GPUs.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.8% change in NVDA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 176.98 | 180.25 | 1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 187,142 | 215,938 | 15.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 53.0% | 55.6% | 4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.4 | 36.5 | -15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 24,327 | 24,302 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 66.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.4% | 77.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.5% change in NVDA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 174.15 | 180.25 | 3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 165,218 | 215,938 | 30.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 52.4% | 55.6% | 6.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 49.0 | 36.5 | -25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 24,366 | 24,302 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 63.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.4% | 77.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.3% change in NVDA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.88 | 180.25 | 44.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 130,497 | 215,938 | 65.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 55.8% | 55.6% | -0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.0 | 36.5 | -13.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 24,489 | 24,302 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 44.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 76.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.9% | 86.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 677.2% change in NVDA stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 700.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.19 | 180.25 | 677.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,974 | 215,938 | 700.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.2% | 55.6% | 243.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 130.8 | 36.5 | -72.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 24,630 | 24,302 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 677.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 677.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 64.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.5% | 79.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NVDA Return | 125% | -50% | 239% | 171% | 39% | -0% | 1329% |
| Peers Return | 45% | -42% | 85% | 25% | 41% | 2% | 178% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NVDA Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 75% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 38% | 65% | 53% | 52% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NVDA Max Drawdown | -11% | -62% | -2% | -4% | -30% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -49% | -4% | -20% | -31% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NVDA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 570.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,731 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL
In The Past
NVIDIA's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.3% gain to breakeven.
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About NVIDIA (NVDA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intel for AI and advanced graphics chips.
2. The electric utility for AI and high-performance computing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- GeForce GPUs: Graphics processing units primarily for gaming and personal computers.
- GeForce NOW: A cloud-based game streaming service.
- NVIDIA RTX/Quadro GPUs: Professional-grade graphics processing units for enterprise workstations and creative applications.
- vGPU Software: Software enabling virtualized graphics and computing in cloud environments.
- Omniverse Software: A platform for 3D design collaboration and building virtual worlds.
- Data Center Platforms: Integrated hardware and software systems for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated computing in data centers.
- Mellanox Networking: High-performance networking and interconnect solutions for data centers and supercomputers.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions: Comprehensive platforms, software, and development agreements for autonomous vehicles and AI-powered automotive cockpits.
- Jetson Platforms: Compact, high-performance computing platforms for robotics and other embedded AI applications.
- NVIDIA AI Enterprise: A software suite and framework for accelerating enterprise AI deployment and development.
- Cryptocurrency Mining Processors (CMPs): Specialized processors designed for efficient cryptocurrency mining.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. The company's customer base includes various enterprise segments as outlined in its description.
Based on the provided background and general market knowledge consistent with NVIDIA's operations, its major customers are found within the categories of Internet and Cloud Service Providers, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)/System Builders, and Automotive Manufacturers. While the background description lists categories of customers, the following are prominent examples of major companies within those categories that are widely recognized as significant customers of NVIDIA:
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - As a major cloud service provider (Azure) and enterprise software vendor, Microsoft utilizes NVIDIA's data center GPUs for AI, HPC, and cloud computing infrastructure.
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, Amazon is a substantial consumer of NVIDIA's data center GPUs to power its cloud AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing services.
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - Google Cloud Platform, a subsidiary of Alphabet, also heavily relies on NVIDIA's GPU technology for its AI workloads, data analytics, and various cloud services.
- Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - As a leading OEM and system builder, Dell integrates NVIDIA's GPUs into its servers, workstations, and personal computers, catering to enterprise, professional visualization, and gaming markets.
- Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE) - Mercedes-Benz has a strategic partnership with NVIDIA for developing software-defined vehicles and next-generation in-car computing platforms, including AI Cockpit and autonomous driving solutions.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
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The following are clear emerging threats for NVIDIA:
- Major cloud service providers and hyperscalers developing their own custom AI accelerators and chips: Companies such as Google (TPUs), Amazon (Inferentia/Trainium), and Microsoft are investing significantly in designing specialized silicon tailored for AI and machine learning workloads within their own data centers. This strategic shift aims to optimize performance, reduce operational costs, and decrease reliance on third-party GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA for critical AI infrastructure.
- Automotive manufacturers and autonomous driving companies designing their own custom AI and autonomous driving chips: A growing number of prominent automotive companies and autonomous vehicle developers are pursuing in-house development of specialized silicon for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving capabilities. This trend could reduce the market demand for NVIDIA's automotive AI platforms and solutions.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NVDA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
| 06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
| 12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 155.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 268.3 |
| Rev LTM | 48,860 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,950 |
| FCF LTM | 9,830 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,635 |
| CFO LTM | 12,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 268.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| P/EBIT | 44.8 |
| P/E | 33.4 |
| P/CFO | 40.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 62.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 125.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 40.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 46.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Networking | 116,193 | 47,405 | 15,068 | 11,046 | 6,841 |
| Graphics | 14,304 | 13,517 | 11,906 | 15,868 | 9,834 |
| All Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 130,497 | 60,922 | 26,974 | 26,914 | 16,675 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Networking | 82,875 | 32,016 | 5,083 | 4,598 | 2,548 |
| Graphics | 5,085 | 5,846 | 4,552 | 8,492 | 4,612 |
| Acquisition-related and other costs | -599 | ||||
| Unallocated operating expenses | -1,171 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation expense | -4,737 | ||||
| All Other | -4,890 | -5,411 | -3,049 | -2,628 | |
| Total | 81,453 | 32,972 | 4,224 | 10,041 | 4,532 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $180.25 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4,380.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/22/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $185.45 | $177.37 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -2.8% | 1.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.4% | 41.8% |
| Downside Capture | 179.84 | 170.86 |
| Upside Capture | 233.98 | 183.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 70.1% | 77.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.36 | 2.08 | 2.11 | 1.98 | 1.73 | 2.06 |
| Up Beta | 4.68 | 3.35 | 3.16 | 1.79 | 1.72 | 2.03 |
| Down Beta | 0.72 | 1.59 | 2.13 | 1.96 | 1.65 | 1.84 |
| Up Capture | 187% | 178% | 192% | 224% | 312% | 4366% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 31 | 63 | 134 | 411 |
| Down Capture | 242% | 207% | 173% | 186% | 136% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 30 | 61 | 117 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 56.0% | 41.7% | 1.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 30.0% | 26.8% | 0.95 | 86.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 77.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 25.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 25.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 36.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 73.3% | 51.8% | 1.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.7% | 24.7% | 0.64 | 81.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 70.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 30.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 32.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 72.0% | 49.7% | 1.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.8% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 76.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 65.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 17.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 32.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 21.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -5.5% | -6.4% | |
| 11/19/2025 | -3.2% | -3.4% | -1.5% |
| 8/27/2025 | -0.8% | -5.5% | -1.9% |
| 5/28/2025 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 17.0% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.5% | -10.6% | -15.1% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.5% | -7.2% | -7.7% |
| 8/28/2024 | -6.4% | -14.6% | -3.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | 9.3% | 16.4% | 24.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 9.4% | 19.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -6.4% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 30.2% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.6% | -29.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robertson, Donald F Jr | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 189.85 | 80,000 | 15,187,742 | 65,850,253 | Form |
| 2 | Stevens, Mark A | Trust | Sell | 12222025 | 180.17 | 222,500 | 40,087,380 | 1,373,141,944 | Form | |
| 3 | Robertson, Donald F Jr | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12222025 | 179.98 | 24,590 | 4,425,727 | 76,826,583 | Form |
| 4 | Jones, Harvey C | H.C. Jones Living Trust | Sell | 12172025 | 177.33 | 250,000 | 44,333,450 | 1,229,504,889 | Form | |
| 5 | Shoquist, Debora | EVP, Operations | Trust | Sell | 12122025 | 183.52 | 80,000 | 14,681,882 | 288,947,330 | Form |
NVDA Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a probability-adjusted skew of 3.27x, placing NVDA firmly in Tier 1. This high conviction rating is driven by the company's widening competitive moat, its central position in a powerful secular growth trend (AI), and the high probability (70%) assigned to the upside scenario where earnings momentum continues. The primary risk from custom silicon is considered a longer-term threat that is unlikely to derail the strong, visible growth trajectory over the next 12 months.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderNVIDIA's explosive, triple-digit revenue growth in its core Data Center segment, its position as the key enabler of the secular AI trend, and its high valuation multiples align perfectly with the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype, where the primary focus is on growth durability and competitive moat.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for NVIDIA is the sustained, high-margin revenue growth from its Data Center segment. This is fueled by the industry-wide arms race to build AI infrastructure, the architectural performance leadership of its GPU platforms like Blackwell, and the deep, defensible moat created by its CUDA software ecosystem, which creates prohibitively high switching costs for customers.
- Data Center revenue grew 66% YoY in the last reported quarter, accounting for nearly 90% of total sales.
- The Blackwell platform provides up to 25x higher throughput for AI inference, drastically reducing TCO for customers and driving adoption.
- The CUDA software ecosystem has an estimated 86% market share in the data center AI chip market, creating a powerful network effect and high switching costs.
- Demand is outstripping supply well into FY2026, providing high near-term revenue visibility.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant long-term risk is the accelerating development of in-house custom silicon (ASICs/TPUs) by NVIDIA's largest customers (Google, Amazon, etc.). These chips are optimized for their specific, high-volume workloads (like inference), potentially offering superior performance-per-watt and lower TCO, which could erode NVIDIA's market share within this critical customer segment over time.
- The 'Hyperscale Fleet Operator' is identified as a contested segment where in-house silicon presents a structural threat and a performance deficit for NVIDIA.
- Major customers like Amazon (Trainium), Google (TPU), and others are actively developing and deploying their custom silicon solutions to reduce long-term vendor reliance.
- Broadcom recently secured a $10 billion order for a custom AI chip, reportedly from OpenAI, signaling a diversification trend among major AI players.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center Revenue Growth (YoY) | > 50% | This is the primary growth engine. Any significant deceleration below this level would signal that the hyper-growth phase is maturing or facing headwinds, triggering a potential valuation re-rating. |
| Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | Stable above 71% | Gross margins in the mid-70s are a key indicator of NVIDIA's pricing power and technological lead. A dip below guided levels could indicate rising competition or increased costs for new product ramps, impacting profitability. |
| Hyperscaler CapEx Guidance | No major downward revisions | Forward-looking commentary from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon on their AI infrastructure spending is the most critical leading indicator of future demand for NVIDIA's products. Any mention of a 'digestion period' or 'optimization' is a major red flag. |
The Hyperscale Growth 'Hand-Off'
BULL VIEW
The CUDA software moat and Blackwell performance create an insurmountable lead, ensuring NVIDIA captures the vast, untapped enterprise and sovereign AI markets, sustaining hyper-growth.
CORE TENSION
Can NVIDIA's growth, currently fueled by a massive hyperscaler buildout, transition to a durable enterprise and sovereign AI demand wave before capex budgets normalize and competition intensifies?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Data Center revenue grew 66% YoY in the last reported quarter, with CEO commentary stating 'Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,' indicating extreme demand velocity.
BEAR VIEW
Hyperscaler capex will decelerate as 'good enough' custom silicon matures. China risk is material. Current growth rates and margins are unsustainable, leading to multiple compression.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late February 2026 | Q4 FY26 Earnings Call & Guidance Watch: Forward guidance for Data Center revenue and commentary on hyperscaler CapEx trends. Any signs of demand 'digestion' or slowdown. |
Next 3-6 Months | Competitor Benchmark Release (AMD, Google, Amazon) Watch: Third-party validated benchmarks (e.g., MLPerf) showing superior price-to-performance for a competitor's chip on key AI models. |
Anytime | Update on China and US Antitrust Investigations Watch: Any official statement, fine, or ruling from the DOJ or Chinese regulators regarding NVIDIA's business practices. |
H2 2026 | Supply Chain Update on HBM4 Memory Watch: Earnings calls from memory suppliers (SK Hynix, Samsung) signaling delays or yield issues with next-generation HBM4 production. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-12 | Huawei Open-Sources CANN Software Details: Huawei open-sourced its CANN software, a strategic move to build a domestic AI ecosystem around its Ascend chips, directly challenging NVIDIA's CUDA dominance in China. | Flat (0.6%) $182.03 -> $183.13 |
2025-08-27 | Q2 FY26 Earnings Release Details: Reported revenue of $46.7B (up 56% YoY). Data Center revenue grew 17% sequentially. The positive results were met with a muted stock reaction. | Muted (-0.09%) $181.74 -> $181.57 |
2025-09-15 | China Announces Antitrust Investigation Details: Chinese regulators announced an investigation into NVIDIA for potential anti-monopoly violations, adding a layer of regulatory risk in a key geopolitical region. | Changed Little (-0.04%) $177.81 -> $177.74 |
2025-10-28 | NVIDIA GTC Washington D.C. Keynote Details: CEO Jensen Huang outlined a vision for AI infrastructure and U.S. technological leadership, reinforcing the company's strategic importance in national AI initiatives. | Rose significantly by 2.99% $201.01 -> $207.02 |
2025-11-19 | Q3 FY26 Earnings Release Details: Reported record revenue of $57.0B (up 62% YoY), beating expectations. Data Center revenue hit $51.2B (up 66% YoY). Strong results driven by accelerating Blackwell demand. | Rose significantly by 2.84% $181.34 -> $186.50 |
2026-01-15 | U.S. Export Control Rules Formalized Details: The U.S. government implemented a new licensing and fee-based system for sales of advanced chips to China, formalizing restrictions that create uncertainty for a key market. | Rose significantly by 2.13% $183.14 -> $187.05 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades with explosive volatility (3.0x S&P 500). While fundamentals are strong and sentiment is Bullish, the expensive valuation and high volatility cap position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
AVGO
SECTOROffers broad AI exposure through its custom silicon business for clients like Google, but with a more diversified business model and less extreme valuation compared to NVIDIA.
ASML
SECTORASML is a 'picks and shovels' monopoly on EUV lithography, essential for all advanced chip manufacturing. It is insulated from the chip-vs-chip competition faced by NVIDIA.
NVIDIA is transitioning from a specialized graphics chip company into the foundational infrastructure provider for the Artificial Intelligence industrial revolution, capitalizing on its dominant hardware and entrenched software ecosystem.
Filter all news through the lens of AI infrastructure demand and competitive moat sustainability. Is the news accelerating, expanding, or threatening the demand for NVIDIA's full-stack computing platform?
Data Center revenue growth +70% YoY; hyperscaler CAPEX announcements explicitly mentioning GPU investment; named enterprise AI adoption case studies; performance benchmarks showing sustained leadership with new platforms (e.g., Blackwell, Rubin); expansion of the CUDA developer ecosystem.
Slowing Data Center growth below guidance; major cloud customers (AWS, Google, Microsoft) announcing significant-scale deployment of in-house AI accelerators as a replacement for NVIDIA GPUs; tangible market share gains by competitors (e.g., AMD's MI-series) in flagship accounts; any sign of gross margin compression due to pricing pressure.
Quarterly fluctuations in the Gaming or Automotive segments (Data Center is 90% of revenue and the core thesis); short-term supply chain commentary (demand currently outstrips supply); individual benchmark losses on niche workloads; new AI chip startup funding announcements (the CUDA moat is the key barrier).
Repricing Catalyst
The unprecedented demand for AI infrastructure, driven by hyperscalers and the rise of enterprise AI adoption, is fueling explosive growth in NVIDIA's Data Center segment. The ongoing ramp of the Blackwell GPU architecture and the announcement of the next-gen Rubin platform are expected to sustain this trajectory, with management guiding to a record $78B in revenue for Q1 FY2027, well above prior expectations.
AI & Data Center Infrastructure
$193.7B TTM (91.5% of Total) · 75.2% MarginWhat It Is
Blackwell and Hopper architecture Tensor Core GPUs (H100, H200, B100), Grace-Hopper and Grace-Blackwell Superchips, NVLink interconnects, InfiniBand and Spectrum-X networking hardware, and DGX integrated AI supercomputer systems.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscalers (Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) and enterprise customers pay per-GPU or per-system to build out AI training and inference infrastructure. They are locked in by the high switching costs of moving from NVIDIA's CUDA software platform, which would require years of rewriting code and retraining developers.
Competition
Gaming & PC Graphics
$16.0B TTM (5.4% of Total) · 75.2% MarginWhat It Is
GeForce RTX series GPUs for gaming PCs and laptops, featuring technologies like DLSS AI-powered graphics.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and PC OEMs (Dell, HP, etc.) pay per-GPU for the highest performance in PC gaming and content creation, supported by brand loyalty and a mature driver and software ecosystem.
Competition
Professional Visualization
$3.2B TTM (1.9% of Total) · 75.2% MarginWhat It Is
NVIDIA RTX series professional GPUs (formerly Quadro) for workstations; Omniverse software platform for 3D design and digital twins.
Who Pays & How
Professionals in media, manufacturing, and sciences pay for certified, high-performance GPUs to accelerate rendering, simulation, and design workflows. The need for driver stability and application-specific certifications creates stickiness.
Competition
Automotive & Robotics
$2.3B TTM (1.2% of Total) · 75.2% MarginWhat It Is
NVIDIA DRIVE platform SoCs (System-on-a-Chip) like Thor for autonomous driving and in-vehicle infotainment; Jetson platform for robotics.
Who Pays & How
Automakers and Tier-1 suppliers pay for a full-stack hardware and software platform to power in-car AI, from infotainment to autonomous driving. Long design cycles (3-5 years) create a strong lock-in once a car model is committed to the DRIVE platform.
Competition
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