Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $554.91 | Market Cap: $503.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $554.91Market Cap: $503.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The provided information does not consistently indicate a -6.9% stock movement for Mastercard (MA) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with clear, attributable causes across the entire period. Information available for this timeframe largely points to positive earnings and analyst outlooks. Mastercard reported higher revenues and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding analysts' forecasts, with adjusted earnings rising to $4.38 per share from $3.89 per share in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Net revenue for Q3 2025 increased 17% year-over-year to $8.6 billion. This performance was driven by healthy consumer and business spending and robust performance of its differentiated services. As of December 3, 2025, Mastercard's stock was trading up, with analysts forecasting approximately 16% annual EPS growth through 2028. The company had a consensus "Buy" rating from analysts with an average price target of $652.50. While there were some short-term fluctuations, such as a -1.19% change on December 1, 2025, and a specific period showing an -8.45% change between August 29 and September 18, 2025, these do not represent a sustained -6.9% movement with identified causes for the entire approximate period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. The overall sentiment and reported financial performance for Mastercard during this period were generally positive.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MA Return | 20% | 1% | -3% | 23% | 24% | 4% | 89% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 14% | -22% | 22% | 37% | 7% | 104% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MA Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 58% | 38% | 60% | 67% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MA Max Drawdown | -32% | -14% | -21% | -1% | -2% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -11% | -31% | -8% | -4% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 925 days | 1480 days |
Compare to V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 15.4% | -5.8% |
| 04302022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.0% | 5.2% | -21.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 15.4% | -5.8% |
| 04302022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.0% | 5.2% | -21.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mastercard
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 25,098 | ||||
| Payment network | 14,358 | 11,943 | |||
| Value-added services and solutions | 7,879 | 6,941 | |||
| Cross-border volume fees | 3,512 | 5,606 | |||
| Domestic assessments | 6,656 | 6,781 | |||
| Other revenues | 4,717 | 4,124 | |||
| Rebates and incentives (contra-revenue) | -8,315 | -8,097 | |||
| Transaction processing | 8,731 | 8,469 | |||
| Total | 25,098 | 22,237 | 18,884 | 15,301 | 16,883 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
