Tearsheet

Mastercard (MA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $554.91 | Market Cap: $503.9 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Mastercard (MA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $554.91
Market Cap: $503.9 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided information does not consistently indicate a -6.9% stock movement for Mastercard (MA) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with clear, attributable causes across the entire period. Information available for this timeframe largely points to positive earnings and analyst outlooks. Mastercard reported higher revenues and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding analysts' forecasts, with adjusted earnings rising to $4.38 per share from $3.89 per share in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Net revenue for Q3 2025 increased 17% year-over-year to $8.6 billion. This performance was driven by healthy consumer and business spending and robust performance of its differentiated services. As of December 3, 2025, Mastercard's stock was trading up, with analysts forecasting approximately 16% annual EPS growth through 2028. The company had a consensus "Buy" rating from analysts with an average price target of $652.50. While there were some short-term fluctuations, such as a -1.19% change on December 1, 2025, and a specific period showing an -8.45% change between August 29 and September 18, 2025, these do not represent a sustained -6.9% movement with identified causes for the entire approximate period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. The overall sentiment and reported financial performance for Mastercard during this period were generally positive.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MA Return20%1%-3%23%24%4%89%
Peers Return30%14%-22%22%37%7%104%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MA Win Rate58%58%42%67%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate60%58%38%60%67%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MA Max Drawdown-32%-14%-21%-1%-2%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-11%-31%-8%-4%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven272 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven155 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven64 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven925 days1480 days

Compare to V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA


In The Past

Mastercard's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mastercard (MA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
MA_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
16.1%15.4%-5.8%
MA_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-9.0%5.2%-21.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
MA_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
16.1%15.4%-5.8%
MA_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-9.0%5.2%-21.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mastercard

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
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Growth & Margins

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
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Valuation

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
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Returns

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Payment Solutions25,098    
Payment network 14,35811,943  
Value-added services and solutions 7,8796,941  
Cross-border volume fees   3,5125,606
Domestic assessments   6,6566,781
Other revenues   4,7174,124
Rebates and incentives (contra-revenue)   -8,315-8,097
Transaction processing   8,7318,469
Total25,09822,23718,88415,30116,883


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,383,599
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.5%
Average Daily Volume2,330,474
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.74
Basic Shares Quantity908,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021