Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Market Price (10/9/2026): $5.09 | Market Cap: $686.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Market Price (10/9/2026): $5.09Market Cap: $686.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 5.1% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 405% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 22.14 Key risksLUCK key risks include [1] severe indebtedness and potential insolvency, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 405% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 22.14 |
| Key risksLUCK key risks include [1] severe indebtedness and potential insolvency, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 10/1/2026
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lucky Strike Entertainment reported a significant miss on its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, which ended in June 2026. The company announced its results on August 27, 2026, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.20, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.05 by $0.15. Additionally, quarterly revenue came in at $303.95 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $311.30 million. This disappointing performance also included a 2.5% decline in same-store sales and a 16.5% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
2. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and weak consumer spending trends negatively impacted the company's performance. Management noted a "macro reset" and a "deterioration in consumer sentiment following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East" that affected traffic trends across the industry. Analysts also cited "weak consumer spending trends" as a factor contributing to the stock's decline.
Show more
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lucky Strike Entertainment reported a significant miss on its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, which ended in June 2026. The company announced its results on August 27, 2026, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.20, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.05 by $0.15. Additionally, quarterly revenue came in at $303.95 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $311.30 million. This disappointing performance also included a 2.5% decline in same-store sales and a 16.5% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
2. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and weak consumer spending trends negatively impacted the company's performance. Management noted a "macro reset" and a "deterioration in consumer sentiment following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East" that affected traffic trends across the industry. Analysts also cited "weak consumer spending trends" as a factor contributing to the stock's decline.
Show more
Updated on 10/1/2026
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lucky Strike Entertainment reported a significant miss on its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, which ended in June 2026. The company announced its results on August 27, 2026, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.20, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.05 by $0.15. Additionally, quarterly revenue came in at $303.95 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $311.30 million. This disappointing performance also included a 2.5% decline in same-store sales and a 16.5% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
2. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and weak consumer spending trends negatively impacted the company's performance. Management noted a "macro reset" and a "deterioration in consumer sentiment following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East" that affected traffic trends across the industry. Analysts also cited "weak consumer spending trends" as a factor contributing to the stock's decline.
3. An S&P downgrade and concerns over acquisition-related leverage weighed on investor confidence. S&P downgraded Lucky Strike Entertainment's rating to B- during fiscal Q4 2026, specifically referencing "weaker operating performance and acquisition-related leverage." The company's interest expense also increased by 5% year-over-year to $205.3 million in fiscal year 2026.
Show less
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lucky Strike Entertainment reported a significant miss on its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, which ended in June 2026. The company announced its results on August 27, 2026, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.20, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.05 by $0.15. Additionally, quarterly revenue came in at $303.95 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $311.30 million. This disappointing performance also included a 2.5% decline in same-store sales and a 16.5% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
2. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and weak consumer spending trends negatively impacted the company's performance. Management noted a "macro reset" and a "deterioration in consumer sentiment following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East" that affected traffic trends across the industry. Analysts also cited "weak consumer spending trends" as a factor contributing to the stock's decline.
3. An S&P downgrade and concerns over acquisition-related leverage weighed on investor confidence. S&P downgraded Lucky Strike Entertainment's rating to B- during fiscal Q4 2026, specifically referencing "weaker operating performance and acquisition-related leverage." The company's interest expense also increased by 5% year-over-year to $205.3 million in fiscal year 2026.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.6% change in LUCK stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.41 | 5.07 | -31.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,243 | 1,245 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.5 | -32.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 136 | 135 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -31.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 20.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.7% | 31.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.1% change in LUCK stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.18 | 5.07 | -38.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,240 | 1,245 | 0.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.5 | -39.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 137 | 135 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -38.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -38.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.3% | 10.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.7% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -48.9% change in LUCK stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.92 | 5.07 | -48.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,201 | 1,245 | 3.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 0.5 | -52.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 135 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -48.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -48.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.1% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 28.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.7% change in LUCK stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.00 | 5.07 | -43.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,059 | 1,245 | 17.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 0.5 | -62.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 135 | 26.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -43.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.3% | 31.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 42.0% | 34.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUCK Return | -7% | 49% | 5% | -28% | -13% | -38% | -43% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -15% | -7% | -4% | 8% | -6% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUCK Win Rate | 44% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 31% | 44% | 45% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUCK Max Drawdown | - | -35% | -47% | -32% | -44% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -34% | -48% | -36% | -52% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PLAY, FUN, PRKS, MSGE, SPHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Lucky Strike Entertainment's stock fell -27.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LUCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Lucky Strike Entertainment's stock fell -27.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) is a prominent operator of location-based entertainment platforms across North America. The company is dedicated to providing diverse recreational experiences, managing a portfolio that includes bowling alleys, amusement centers, water parks, and comprehensive family entertainment centers.
Operating under well-recognized brands such as AMF, Bowlero, Lucky X Strike, Boomers, and PBA, Lucky Strike Entertainment serves a broad customer base, including individuals, families, and groups seeking engaging activities and entertainment experiences.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK):
- A larger, more diversified Dave & Buster's.
- The 'Marriott of entertainment venues,' operating multiple brands of bowling alleys and family fun centers.
- The 'Six Flags of local entertainment,' offering a diverse mix of bowling, arcades, and water parks.
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- Bowling Entertainment: Providing bowling alley experiences and related facilities for recreation.
- Amusement Centers: Operating venues featuring arcade games, laser tag, and other competitive or recreational activities.
- Water Parks: Managing and operating facilities offering water slides, pools, and other water-based recreational attractions.
- Family Entertainment Centers (FECs): Operating multi-faceted venues that combine various entertainment options like bowling, arcades, laser tag, and dining for all ages.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) primarily sells its services directly to individuals and groups who utilize its location-based entertainment venues. The company operates bowling alleys, amusement centers, water parks, and family entertainment centers, which are typically patronized by the general public.
Major Customer Categories:
- Individual Consumers and Families: This category includes the general public seeking leisure, recreation, and entertainment activities such as bowling, arcade games, water park access, and amusement rides at the company's various branded locations (e.g., Lucky X Strike, Boomers).
- Corporate and Group Event Organizers: Businesses, schools, and private individuals or organizations that book Lucky Strike Entertainment's venues for parties, corporate events, team-building activities, or other group gatherings and celebrations.
- League and Recreational Bowlers: A dedicated segment of customers who regularly visit the company's bowling centers (under brands like AMF, Bowlero, and PBA) for league play, tournaments, or frequent recreational bowling.
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Thomas F. Shannon, Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President
Mr. Shannon founded Bowlmor Lanes in 1997, growing it into the world's largest operator of bowling entertainment centers. He acquired AMF Bowling in 2012, significantly expanding the company's footprint. The company, then Bowlmor AMF, was acquired by the private equity firm Atairos Group in 2017, with Mr. Shannon retaining a significant investment. He recently assumed the role of President in March 2026, in addition to his other roles.
Bobby Lavan, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Lavan is responsible for overseeing Lucky Strike Entertainment's financial strategy, planning, and performance. He participated in the company's earnings calls in March 2026 and made an insider purchase of company shares in September 2025.
Christopher Collins, Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. Collins ensures accurate financial reporting, compliance, and accounting practices for Lucky Strike Entertainment.
Heather Webb, Chief People Officer
Ms. Webb is responsible for championing the company's culture, talent development, and employee engagement initiatives.
Danielle Capestany, Chief Transformation Officer
Ms. Capestany drives strategic initiatives focused on evolving and future-proofing Lucky Strike Entertainment's business.
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The key risks to Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) primarily revolve around its substantial debt, sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending, and intense competition coupled with operational cost pressures.
- High Levels of Debt and Interest Expenses: Lucky Strike Entertainment carries a significant debt burden and high interest expenses, which could severely limit its financial flexibility and ability to invest in growth or withstand economic downturns. Multiple reports indicate high leverage, with one source noting a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 8x. This level of debt raises concerns about incremental borrowing costs and potential credit rating downgrades if profitability declines. Analysts have also suggested a considerable probability of liquidity issues within the next decade due to its fixed cost base and leverage profile.
- Economic Sensitivity and Consumer Discretionary Spending: As an operator of location-based entertainment platforms, Lucky Strike Entertainment's business is highly susceptible to economic fluctuations and changes in consumer discretionary spending. Economic downturns or prolonged periods of consumer caution can lead to reduced foot traffic and lower revenue, impacting the company's profitability and growth prospects. Recent performance has shown declines in same-store sales, partly attributed to a choppy macroeconomic backdrop and reduced corporate and event traffic.
- Intense Competition and Operational Cost Pressures: The entertainment industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for consumer attention. Lucky Strike Entertainment must continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain its market position and attract customers. Additionally, the company faces ongoing operational cost pressures, including increases in location operating costs, labor, and marketing expenses. These rising costs can depress profit margins and challenge the company's ability to increase comparable sales while managing expenses effectively.
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The clear emerging threat for Lucky Strike Entertainment is the rapid advancement and increasing consumer adoption of immersive virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies, including the nascent metaverse. These platforms offer increasingly sophisticated and engaging virtual entertainment experiences that could directly compete with and potentially displace demand for physical, location-based entertainment such as bowling alleys, amusement parks, and family entertainment centers. As VR/AR technology improves in fidelity, accessibility, and social integration, it poses a disruptive threat by providing alternative, location-agnostic entertainment options that remove the need for physical travel and offer highly customizable, interactive, and novel experiences from home or easily accessible local hubs.
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The addressable markets for Lucky Strike Entertainment's main products and services in North America are as follows:
- Bowling: The bowling market size in North America was valued at approximately USD 1.03 billion in 2024.
- Amusement Parks: The amusement parks market in North America generated an estimated revenue of USD 39.08 billion in 2024.
- Water Parks: The market size for Water Parks in the U.S. was approximately USD 6.4 billion in 2025.
- Family Entertainment Centers (FECs): The Family Entertainment Centers market in North America had a market size of approximately USD 12.6 billion in 2024.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Rebranding and Elevated Guest Experience: The company is actively converting its Bowlero locations to the Lucky Strike brand, focusing on an enhanced guest experience. This transformation includes upgraded interiors, improved guest hospitality, and elevated food and beverage menus, which are anticipated to attract more customers and increase spending per visit. By the end of 2026, Lucky Strike aims to rebrand 74 locations, ultimately reaching approximately 218 Lucky Strike sites.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Expansion into Diverse Entertainment Verticals: Lucky Strike Entertainment continues to pursue a "roll-up" strategy, acquiring smaller entertainment venues, including water parks and family entertainment centers. This inorganic growth strategy diversifies the company's offerings beyond traditional bowling, expanding its portfolio of location-based entertainment platforms.
- Enhanced Food and Beverage Offerings: A significant focus is placed on investing in food and beverage innovations and improving the F&B program across its venues. This is expected to drive higher revenue per customer and contribute to overall top-line growth.
- Revitalization of the Events Business and Organic Growth: After a period of decline, the company is making progress in rebuilding its events business, with same-store event sales turning positive in early 2026. Alongside this, Lucky Strike is investing in marketing to expand brand awareness and build momentum in core retail and league segments, utilizing a strong online booking funnel to drive customer engagement and organic growth.
- Optimization of Location Footprint and Capital Structure: The acquisition of real estate for 58 existing locations is a strategic move to reduce rent obligations and enhance financial and operational flexibility. This increased flexibility allows for reinvestment in profitable venues and high-ROI initiatives, indirectly supporting future revenue growth and enabling further expansion and enhancements across the portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- A share repurchase program was authorized on February 7, 2022, for up to $200,000, which was subsequently replenished multiple times, bringing the aggregate authorized amount to approximately $551,518 and extended indefinitely on February 2, 2024.
- In fiscal year 2025 (ended June 29, 2025), the company repurchased 6.8 million shares of Class A common stock for approximately $72 million.
- As of September 29, 2024, approximately $156.7 million remained authorized under the share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In December 2021, the company (then Bowlero Corp.) went public through a merger with Isos Acquisition Corp., which included a Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) of about $450 million from various investors, including Apollo Global Management and Wells Fargo Asset Management.
Inbound Investments
- The company received approximately $450 million through a private investment in public equity (PIPE) during its merger with Isos Acquisition Corp. in December 2021.
Outbound Investments
- The company deployed approximately $700 million for acquisitions over the past three-plus fiscal years (ending July 10, 2025), including 58 existing properties for $306 million.
- Strategic acquisitions included the Lucky Strike bowling brand and its 14 locations in September 2023, and the Raging Waves water park for approximately $49 million in May 2024.
- Since June 2021, the company has added 40 new bowling centers, with 38 of these being acquisitions. In fiscal year 2025, 14 new locations were added, bringing the total to 370.
Capital Expenditures
- Over the past three-plus fiscal years (up to October 2025), the company invested an additional $385 million into capital expenditures, focusing on water parks, family entertainment centers (FECs), and next-generation bowling concepts.
- The company projects total revenue growth of 5% to 9% for fiscal year 2026, with an emphasis on strategic investments to drive long-term success.
Peer Outperformance in Leisure Facilities
LUCK has trailed 55% of its 11 Leisure Facilities peers over 5Y. Leisure Facilities ranks 17th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Leisure Facilities constituents that LUCK has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
14%
of 14 industry peers · -48.1% return
3Y
9%
of 11 industry peers · -52.0% return
5Y
45%
of 11 industry peers · -45.5% return
No Leisure Facilities peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten LUCK by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Leisure Facilities is LUCK's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -11.0% | 80.0% | 82.8% | CVSA 245% · LINC 236% · PRDO 218% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -8.5% | 31.8% | 48.5% | GRBK 197% · TOL 152% · PHM 151% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 3.0% | 39.3% | 12.8% | ASO 36% · SIG 32% · DKS 31% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 7.3% | 36.0% | 11.4% | RCL 232% · MAR 140% · LIND 134% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -20.8% | -0.1% | 0.3% | HVT 13% · LOW 1% · HD 0% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -13.7% | 0.9% | -5.1% | MUSA 214% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Footwear | 9 | 62.5% | 47.1% | -10.4% | WEYS 206% · DECK 38% · SHOO 19% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -9.1% | -8.2% | -13.7% | EAT 286% · CAKE 164% · BH 119% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -18.5% | 15.9% | -16.4% | HRB 107% · FTDR 88% · SCI 33% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -5.2% | 26.6% | -17.0% | SGI 46% · LZB -1% · MHK -33% |
| Distributors | 4 | -11.6% | -27.5% | -17.1% | ARMK 122% · GPC 18% · LKQ -52% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 7.2% | 16.8% | -37.7% | ANF 260% · URBN 173% · TJX 130% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 12.7% | -3.2% | -39.7% | FLXS 218% · HBB 165% · KEQU 160% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -22.5% | -21.1% | -40.8% | GOLF 76% · HAS 26% · MAT -13% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 3.6% | 45.6% | -41.4% | BBY 4% · GME -41% · UPBD -61% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -12.0% | -12.8% | -41.5% | MOD 1459% · GTX 263% · MLR 69% |
| Leisure Facilities ← | 12 | 5.5% | -6.6% | -45.0% | JAKK 153% · LTH 134% · OSW 124% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -14.3% | -28.0% | -47.4% | MCRI 91% · RRR 18% · BYD 14% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | -3.5% | 13.8% | -49.6% | RL 258% · TPR 252% · ELA 194% |
| Broadline Retail | 14 | -7.3% | 23.2% | -50.9% | EBAY 63% · AMZN 55% · OLLI 42% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -25.6% | -25.5% | -74.4% | AXIL 3081% · GRMN 91% · SONO -44% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -35.8% | -41.3% | -77.2% | TLF 98% · BBW 90% · WINA 65% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -75.5% | -52.5% | -77.9% | GM 47% · TSLA 43% · F 10% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,357 |
| Op Inc LTM | 169 |
| FCF LTM | 165 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 40 |
| CFO LTM | 399 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 193 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 26.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.07 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -48.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.01 | $7.49 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -15.7% | -32.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.6% | 51.2% |
| Downside Capture | 226.46 | 194.54 |
| Upside Capture | 13.37 | 85.50 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.6% | 24.5% |
LUCK Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.31 | 0.97 | 0.66 | 0.44 | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | -2.34 | -0.76 | -0.57 | 0.19 | 0.49 | 1.02 |
| Down Beta | 0.73 | 1.63 | 0.40 | -1.17 | 0.48 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 97% | 66% | 31% | 30% | 76% | 67% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 59 | 122 | 361 |
| Down Capture | 336% | 271% | 212% | 170% | 145% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 64 | 126 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -47.5% | 51.1% | -1.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -4.7% | 19.4% | -0.37 | 29.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.91 | 24.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.4% | 29.6% | 0.11 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.0% | 20.9% | 1.67 | -11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 13.7% | -0.05 | 23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.7% | 44.2% | -0.73 | 25.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -10.9% | 52.1% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.3% | 24.1% | 0.18 | 32.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 31.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.40 | 2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.7% | 52.2% | 0.43 | 17.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -5.5% | 50.6% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 32.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 31.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 2.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/30/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2026 | -7.1% | -7.4% | -22.0% |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.2% | 5.2% | -0.5% |
| 2/4/2026 | -13.5% | 1.6% | 17.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| 8/28/2025 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -13.2% | -5.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 8.1% | -12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 11.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 7.3% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.1% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.2% | 41.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -13.9% | -22.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2026 | -7.1% | -7.4% | -22.0% |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.2% | 5.2% | -0.5% |
| 2/4/2026 | -13.5% | 1.6% | 17.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| 8/28/2025 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -13.2% | -5.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 8.1% | -12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 11.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| 5/6/2024 | -10.3% | -12.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | 15.8% | 29.2% | 14.1% |
| 11/7/2023 | 15.3% | 10.3% | 13.7% |
| 9/11/2023 | 4.9% | 5.7% | 11.4% |
| 5/17/2023 | -16.7% | -13.9% | -14.4% |
| 2/15/2023 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 11/16/2022 | -1.8% | -6.7% | -9.4% |
| 9/15/2022 | 7.5% | 6.5% | 12.4% |
| 5/11/2022 | 18.9% | 20.1% | 16.4% |
| 2/9/2022 | 14.9% | 20.6% | 41.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 7.3% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.1% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.2% | 41.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -13.9% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 09/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/22/2021 | 424B3 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 8/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2027 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.28 Bil | 1.29 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 3.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 340.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | 360.00 Mil | 0.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 347.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 90.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.25 Bil | 1.25 Bil | 1.26 Bil | -2.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.28 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 345.00 Mil | 347.50 Mil | 350.00 Mil | -12.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 395.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.26 Bil | 1.28 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.28 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 375.00 Mil | 395.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 395.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.26 Bil | 1.28 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.28 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 375.00 Mil | 395.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 395.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lavan, Robert M | President and CFO | Direct | Buy | 9232026 | 5.47 | 387 | 2,119 | 446,603 | Form |
| 2 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 9112026 | 5.45 | 600 | 3,268 | 282,364 | Form | |
| 3 | Shannon, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9092026 | 5.86 | 30,000 | 175,800 | 18,423,840 | Form |
| 4 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 614.00 | 1,000 | 614,000 | 55,086,852 | Form | |
| 5 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.25 | 400 | 2,500 | 554,488 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lavan, Robert M | President and CFO | Direct | Buy | 9232026 | 5.47 | 387 | 2,119 | 446,603 | Form |
| 2 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 9112026 | 5.45 | 600 | 3,268 | 282,364 | Form | |
| 3 | Shannon, Thomas F | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9092026 | 5.86 | 30,000 | 175,800 | 18,423,840 | Form |
| 4 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 614.00 | 1,000 | 614,000 | 55,086,852 | Form | |
| 5 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.25 | 400 | 2,500 | 554,488 | Form | |
| 6 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.23 | 2,800 | 17,444 | 550,221 | Form | |
| 7 | Mathrani, Sandeep | Sandeep Mathrani 2017 Revocable Trust | Buy | 9012026 | 6.41 | 9,350 | 59,957 | 59,957 | Form | |
| 8 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 8.10 | 745 | 6,034 | 415,109 | Form | |
| 9 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 7.60 | 277 | 2,103 | 616,879 | Form |
| 10 | Ekster, Lev | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 8.47 | 3,000 | 25,399 | 544,343 | Form | |
| 11 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 3102026 | 8.47 | 246 | 2,087 | 685,287 | Form |
| 12 | Harinstein, Jason | Direct | Buy | 2132026 | 7.54 | 13,000 | 98,020 | 98,020 | Form | |
| 13 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 2102026 | 6.50 | 6,000 | 39,000 | 555,867 | Form | |
| 14 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 8.53 | 243 | 2,073 | 688,169 | Form |
| 15 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 8.46 | 520 | 4,402 | 427,508 | Form | |
| 16 | Ekster, Lev | President | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 8.75 | 38 | 332 | 591,027 | Form |
| 17 | Born, Richard Meynard | Direct | Buy | 12022025 | 8.09 | 30,000 | 242,736 | 242,736 | Form | |
| 18 | Born, Richard Meynard | BFT Partners LLC | Buy | 12022025 | 8.09 | 30,000 | 242,736 | 242,736 | Form | |
| 19 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 11182025 | 7.62 | 4,685 | 35,700 | 605,927 | Form | |
| 20 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 7.90 | 1,500 | 11,850 | 591,181 | Form | |
| 21 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 7.95 | 100 | 795 | 582,997 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 9, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Leisure Facilities Resources |
| Blooloop |
| Attractions Management |
| IAAPA |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 10/8/2026