JetBlue Airways (JBLU)
Market Price (12/16/2025): $4.89 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
JetBlue Airways (JBLU)
Market Price (12/16/2025): $4.89Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.4% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 380% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.4% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 380% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -30% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JBLU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report
JetBlue announced mixed financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 28, 2025. The company reported a wider net loss of $143 million, compared to a net loss of $60 million in the third quarter of 2024, although the prior year's results included special items. Operating revenue decreased by 1.8% year-over-year to $2.322 billion, falling short of analyst expectations of $2.362 billion. Despite beating earnings per share estimates with a non-GAAP loss of $0.40 against a projected loss of $0.453 per share, the stock notably fell by 9.85% in pre-market trading following the announcement.
2. Bearish Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
Throughout the period from late August to mid-December 2025, and particularly after the Q3 earnings release, analyst sentiment for JetBlue Airways remained predominantly negative. The average analyst rating for JBLU stock was "Sell". A consensus of 14 analysts indicated a "Sell" rating, with an average 12-month price target of $4.37, suggesting a potential downside compared to the closing price of $4.89 on December 15, 2025. Some analysts predicted significant declines, with extreme uncertainty around the stock's valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JBLU Return | -22% | -2% | -54% | -14% | 42% | -37% | -74% |
| Peers Return | -33% | 1% | -20% | 4% | 60% | 3% | -6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JBLU Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 43% | 50% | 43% | 63% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JBLU Max Drawdown | -63% | -12% | -57% | -43% | -18% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -12% | -29% | -18% | -16% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LUV, DAL, AAL, UAL, ALK. See JBLU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/15/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JBLU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 486.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 485.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2156 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, AAL, ALK
In The Past
JetBlue Airways's stock fell -82.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -82.9% loss requires a 486.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JBLU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.4% | 21.4% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.4% | 5.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.4% | 21.4% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.4% | 5.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for JetBlue Airways
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.0 |
| Rev LTM | 40,922 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,431 |
| FCF LTM | 414 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 335 |
| CFO LTM | 2,898 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,792 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.0 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 3.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -11.9% | -11.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | 6.7% | -0.5% | 22.0% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.7% | 14.7% | 28.3% |
| 1/28/2025 | -25.7% | -25.3% | -17.3% |
| 10/29/2024 | -17.1% | -22.0% | -19.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 12.3% | -9.8% | -18.0% |
| 4/23/2024 | -18.8% | -21.4% | -24.5% |
| 1/30/2024 | -4.7% | 1.5% | 16.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 17 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.4% | 15.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -8.6% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.3% | 14.7% | 70.7% |
| Max Negative | -25.7% | -25.3% | -24.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
