ICF International (ICFI)
Market Price (9/30/2026): $83.21 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Research & Consulting Services
ICF International (ICFI)
Market Price (9/30/2026): $83.21Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Research & Consulting Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% Key risksICFI key risks include [1] its significant dependence on U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
| Key risksICFI key risks include [1] its significant dependence on U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
ICF International (ICFI) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance for fiscal year 2026 (which ends December 31).
ICF International reported Non-GAAP EPS of $1.86 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.65 by $0.21. Despite revenue of $474.5 million falling slightly below estimates, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenues between $1.89 billion and $1.96 billion and Non-GAAP EPS of $6.95 to $7.25. This positive earnings surprise and reiterated strong outlook likely boosted investor confidence.
2. Robust Growth in Commercial and International Government Sectors.
In fiscal Q2 2026, ICF demonstrated strong performance in its non-federal segments, with commercial client revenues increasing by 5.9% year-over-year and international government client revenues climbing an impressive 35%. This diversification was further supported by a $20 million recompete contract for energy efficiency programs awarded in fiscal Q2 2026 for a consortium of Northeast utilities, reinforcing its commercial energy segment. Earlier, in January 2026, ICF announced securing new European contracts with a combined ceiling value of nearly $300 million, contributing to its international growth.
Show more
ICF International (ICFI) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance for fiscal year 2026 (which ends December 31).
ICF International reported Non-GAAP EPS of $1.86 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.65 by $0.21. Despite revenue of $474.5 million falling slightly below estimates, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenues between $1.89 billion and $1.96 billion and Non-GAAP EPS of $6.95 to $7.25. This positive earnings surprise and reiterated strong outlook likely boosted investor confidence.
2. Robust Growth in Commercial and International Government Sectors.
In fiscal Q2 2026, ICF demonstrated strong performance in its non-federal segments, with commercial client revenues increasing by 5.9% year-over-year and international government client revenues climbing an impressive 35%. This diversification was further supported by a $20 million recompete contract for energy efficiency programs awarded in fiscal Q2 2026 for a consortium of Northeast utilities, reinforcing its commercial energy segment. Earlier, in January 2026, ICF announced securing new European contracts with a combined ceiling value of nearly $300 million, contributing to its international growth.
3. Stabilization and Anticipated Recovery in U.S. Federal Business, Supported by a Significant Pipeline.
Although U.S. federal government revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 was down 9.5% year-over-year due to prior contract cancellations and a slower RFP pace, it showed a sequential increase of 1.4% from fiscal Q1 2026, signaling a stabilization of this key market. Management highlighted expectations for sequential growth in federal revenues for fiscal Q3 2026 and a return to year-over-year growth in fiscal Q4 2026. This outlook is underpinned by a robust business development pipeline that reached $9.3 billion by the end of fiscal Q2 2026.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
During the period, several research analysts expressed increased confidence in ICF International. Barrington Research set a price target of $110.00, while Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from "hold" to "strong-buy." The stock currently holds a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating among analysts, with an average twelve-month price target of $105.00, suggesting an upside potential for investors.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.2% change in ICFI stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.59 | 83.12 | 21.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,823 | 1,821 | -0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 16.9 | 15.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ICFI | 21.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.3% | -5.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.1% | -13.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.6% change in ICFI stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 82.66 | 83.12 | 0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,873 | 1,821 | -2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.9% | 4.9% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.5 | 16.9 | 2.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ICFI | 0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 0.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | -4.0% | -6.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.6% change in ICFI stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 97.35 | 83.12 | -14.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,977 | 1,821 | -7.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.5% | 4.9% | -10.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.6 | 16.9 | 1.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ICFI | -14.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.8% | 8.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.7% | 5.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.3% change in ICFI stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 132.64 | 83.12 | -37.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,927 | 1,821 | -5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 4.9% | 44.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.5 | 16.9 | -56.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 19 | 18 | 4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ICFI | -37.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.1% | 14.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 63.2% | 17.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ICFI Return | 39% | -3% | 36% | -11% | -28% | -2% | 15% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ICFI Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 52% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ICFI Max Drawdown | -11% | -20% | -12% | -33% | -42% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -21% | -17% | -28% | -32% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BAH, LDOS, CACI, SAIC, TTEK. See ICFI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ICFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 349 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 123 days |
In The Past
ICF International's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ICFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 349 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 196 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
ICF International's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ICF International (ICFI)
ICF International (ICFI) is a global consulting and technology services firm that helps government and commercial clients address complex challenges. The company offers a wide array of services including management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting. ICF's work involves researching critical issues, providing strategic planning and advisory services, and implementing practical solutions across various domains.
The firm's core offerings include advanced data analytics, business intelligence, IT system modernization, and comprehensive cybersecurity solutions to protect digital infrastructures. ICF also specializes in optimizing customer and citizen experiences, alongside providing expert services in public relations, branding, marketing, and strategic communications to engage stakeholders and manage reputations effectively.
ICF serves a diverse client base, primarily government entities in the United States and internationally, as well as commercial enterprises. Its expertise is applied across key sectors such as energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets, helping clients define policies, develop programs, and enhance their operational performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Think of it as a diversified consulting and technology services firm, like Accenture or Deloitte, but with a strong emphasis on public policy, government programs, and strategic communications.
- Similar to Booz Allen Hamilton, but with a broader client base and expertise in areas like energy, environmental policy, and health programs, in addition to safety and security.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Management Consulting: Provides strategic planning, advisory, and implementation services to improve organizational and operational performance for government and commercial clients.
- Marketing & Strategic Communications: Offers services for branding, public relations, multi-channel communications, and reputation management to inform and engage various stakeholders.
- Technology Consulting & Systems Development: Delivers expertise in technology strategy, IT system modernization, and the design, development, and implementation of crucial technology systems and business tools.
- Policy Consulting & Program Implementation: Advises on critical policy issues, researches trends, and helps identify, define, and implement policies, plans, and programs.
- Research, Analytics & Data Management: Conducts extensive survey research, data collection, and analysis to provide actionable business intelligence and integrated information management solutions.
- Cybersecurity Solutions: Offers services to protect IT infrastructures and supports clients' cybersecurity missions against relentless threats.
- Customer & Citizen Experience Optimization: Provides solutions aimed at enhancing the overall experience for clients' customers and citizens.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ICF International (ICFI) primarily provides services to two major categories of clients:
- Government Clients: These include federal, state, and local government entities, both in the United States and internationally. The company serves these clients across various domains such as policy, security, health, and energy initiatives.
- Commercial Clients: These are companies operating across a diverse range of markets and industries. While the background information does not list specific names of these commercial customer companies, it identifies the sectors they serve as:
- Energy, environment, and infrastructure
- Health, education, and social programs
- Safety and security
- Consumer and financial markets
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
John Wasson, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
John Wasson has spent his entire 36-year career at ICF International, joining as an associate in 1987. He has held positions of increasing responsibility, serving as President since 2010 and Chief Operating Officer since 2003. Wasson was appointed Chief Executive Officer in October 2019 and became board chair in 2020. He has led client work in diverse areas including energy, environment, public health, and disaster recovery. Under his leadership, ICF has experienced significant growth, doubling in size every five years over the past two decades. He holds a Master of Science in Technology and Policy from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from the University of California, Davis.
James Morgan, Chief Operating and Financial Officer
James Morgan assumed the combined role of Chief Operating and Financial Officer (COFO) for ICF International effective January 1, 2026. He previously served as ICF's Chief Operating Officer since 2020 or June 2022 (depending on source) and was the company's Chief Financial Officer from 2012 to 2020. With over 30 years of experience, Mr. Morgan has worked with consulting firms serving both government and commercial clients. Prior to joining ICF, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO of Serco, Inc. and spent 18 years at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) as their Senior Vice President for Strategic & Operational Finance and Business Transformation. He began his career at Arthur Andersen & Co. Mr. Morgan holds an MBA from George Washington University and a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from North Carolina State University.
Anne Choate, President
Anne Choate was appointed President of ICF International, effective January 1, 2026. She has been with ICF since 1995, accumulating 30 years of experience within the company. In her previous role as Executive Vice President, she led ICF's work in the energy, environment, infrastructure, and disaster recovery markets. As President, she oversees ICF's four client-facing groups and its business development organization. Her earlier responsibilities at ICF included leading teams and lines of business focused on decarbonization, resilience, transportation, and energy issues from mid-2004 to 2015.
Sergio Ostria, Executive Vice President, Growth, Marketing & Innovation
Sergio Ostria serves as the Executive Vice President for Growth, Marketing & Innovation at ICF International.
Jennifer Welham, Senior Vice President, Health, People, and Human Services
Jennifer Welham is the Senior Vice President of Health, People, and Human Services at ICF. With nearly three decades of consulting experience at ICF, she leads a division responsible for health, education, and social programs for federal and state agencies. Her expertise lies in assisting clients in utilizing scientific research and data-driven insights to improve public health outcomes. Ms. Welham holds a Master of Environmental Science and Public Policy from George Mason University and a Bachelor of Science in Biology and Psychology from The College of William and Mary.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to ICF International (ICFI):
- Dependence on Government Contracts and Budgeting/Spending Priorities: A substantial portion of ICF International's revenue is derived from contracts with U.S. federal, state, local, and international governments. This reliance exposes the company to significant risks associated with governmental budgeting and spending priorities, including potential reductions in federal spending, unpredictable policy changes, delays in funding, and contract cancellations.
- Intensifying Competition and Ability to Win New Contracts: ICF International operates in a highly competitive professional services and technology solutions market. The company must continuously compete with other consulting firms to secure government and commercial contracts, necessitating ongoing investment in business development. A shrinking sales pipeline and challenges in securing new orders could adversely affect the company's future revenue and growth trajectory.
- Revenue and Net Income Decline / Operational Execution: ICF International has recently faced challenges, including an earnings miss and a decline in revenue and net income in late 2025. These financial trends indicate potential underlying issues such as operational execution risks on larger programs, increased competition, pricing pressures, or shifts in client spending, which could impact the company's profitability and market position.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
ICF International (symbol: ICFI) operates in several addressable markets, primarily providing consulting and technology services to government and commercial clients globally.
Key addressable markets for ICF International's services include:
-
U.S. Federal Government IT Services Market: This market is estimated to reach $94.7 billion by 2027, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6%. ICF anticipates even faster growth within its key market segments, with consulting services projected to have a CAGR of 14% and application services a CAGR of 9.2% in this sector.
-
Global Consulting Market: The global consulting market was valued at over $160 billion in 2024.
-
U.S. Energy and Environment Consulting Market: The implementation of federal green subsidies in 2024-2025 has created an estimated multi-billion-dollar addressable market for energy and environment consulting in the United States.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ICF International (NASDAQ: ICFI) is poised for revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key initiatives and market trends.
One primary driver is the continued expansion of its **Commercial Energy segment**. The company anticipates double-digit growth in this area for 2026, following a 24% increase in 2025. This growth is fueled by strong demand from utility clients for services related to energy efficiency, flexible load management, electrification, and grid optimization programs.
Another significant contributor to future revenue is the expected increase in **International Government revenue**. ICF projects double-digit growth in this segment for 2026, largely due to the full ramp-up of new contracts secured in late 2024 and early 2025 with the European Commission and the UK government.
Furthermore, ICF expects a **recovery in its Federal Government business**. Despite a decline in 2025, the company anticipates a return to year-on-year growth in specific federal areas, with sequential quarterly improvements throughout 2026 and year-over-year growth by the fourth quarter of 2026. This is supported by an improved procurement environment and an expected increase in IT modernization work.
Strategic **acquisitions** are also a stated part of ICF's growth strategy, with the company actively seeking opportunities for expansion.
Finally, a robust **business development pipeline and backlog** underpin these growth expectations. ICF concluded 2025 with a firm backlog of $3.4 billion and an $8.6 billion business development pipeline, indicating a strong foundation for future contract wins and revenue generation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In 2025, ICF repurchased approximately 564,000 shares of common stock.
- As of November 14, 2024, the Board of Directors approved an additional $100 million for the share repurchase program, increasing the total authorization to $300 million, with no expiration date. Approximately $67 million remained under the previous authorization as of September 30, 2024.
- In the first half of 2023, ICF used $18.1 million to repurchase 180,000 shares.
Share Issuance
- Shares were issued primarily pursuant to employee stock purchase plans and the vesting of restricted stock units.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, ICF acquired Applied Energy Group, an energy technology and advisory services company.
- In 2023, ICF acquired CMY Solutions for $32.6 million, a power and energy engineering firm focused on grid modernization and renewable planning.
- In 2022, ICF acquired SemanticBits for $220 million, a premier partner to U.S. federal health agencies providing digital modernization services, and Creative Systems and Consulting, a provider of IT modernization and digital transformation solutions.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, capital expenditures are anticipated to be approximately $24 million to $26 million.
- Capital expenditures were $21.7 million in 2025 and $21.4 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures are primarily focused on technology investments and internal infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Research & Consulting Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 3.3% | 113.9% | 189.8% | FIX 2283% · STRL 2127% · CDNL 2005% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 87.4% | 59.3% | 175.1% | HOS 40479% · MATX 199% · KEX 175% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 3.8% | 46.8% | 114.3% | CAT 369% · WAB 248% · ALSN 245% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -10.8% | 59.6% | 67.8% | ATI 1036% · FTAI 834% · HWM 651% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 3.8% | 34.4% | 52.9% | DXPE 517% · AIT 289% · WCC 227% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 18.8% | 59.2% | 52.1% | FSTR 141% · CSX 69% · UNP 57% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 13.8% | 48.8% | 49.3% | CRS 1167% · PSIX 1123% · GHM 600% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 12.7% | 28.0% | 35.8% | LIME 3206% · TH 417% · WLFC 323% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 37.5% | 1.4% | 30.1% | XPO 266% · R 215% · CVLG 151% |
| Building Products | 33 | -14.1% | 1.4% | 21.6% | LMB 624% · GFF 365% · PPIH 302% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 3.4% | 51.6% | 14.0% | POWL 2392% · BE 1456% · VRT 936% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.7% | 4.9% | -1.0% | RCMT 578% · CSW 135% · DD 76% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -33.9% | 43.0% | -3.5% | UBER 55% · CAR -4% · LYFT -72% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -13.5% | 10.1% | -6.7% | CECO 903% · ADUR 437% · NVRI 315% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 8.8% | -0.6% | -7.0% | BLBD 170% · DE 116% · GENC 55% |
| Research & Consulting Services ← | 13 | -18.0% | -27.1% | -14.2% | HURN 201% · CRAI 78% · GRNQ 39% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -35.1% | -15.8% | -28.9% | EXLS 40% · BR 6% · G -27% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 16.0% | 16.8% | -31.9% | LTM 2814% · UAL 137% · DAL 106% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 15.5% | 18.6% | -32.9% | PBI 175% · TILE 134% · HNI 50% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | -2.0% | -16.7% | -36.6% | BBSI 70% · ADP 46% · KFY 10% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -30.0% | -23.7% | -38.5% | CHRW 94% · FDX 81% · EXPD 67% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -25.4% | 20.5% | -40.5% | CIX 169% · MG 110% · NL 79% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -70.4% | -78.1% | -68.8% | JOBY -40% · ASLE -69% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,485 |
| Op Inc LTM | 757 |
| FCF LTM | 700 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 521 |
| CFO LTM | 773 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 579 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $83.12 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/28/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $85.91 | $78.49 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.3% | 5.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.0% | 40.0% |
| Downside Capture | 30.14 | 42.34 |
| Upside Capture | 98.85 | 22.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 6.8% | 8.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.11 | 0.29 | -0.20 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Up Beta | 1.63 | -0.36 | 0.17 | 0.52 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| Down Beta | -2.12 | -0.30 | -0.91 | -0.37 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | 316% | 145% | 52% | 2% | 15% | 7% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 35 | 62 | 126 | 380 |
| Down Capture | 242% | -27% | -87% | -21% | 48% | 74% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 29 | 65 | 124 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ICFI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICFI | -10.0% | 39.9% | -0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.9% | 17.2% | 0.48 | 5.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 13.0% | 0.90 | 8.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 10.5% | 29.6% | 0.34 | -7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.5% | 20.8% | 1.52 | -12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 13.6% | -0.02 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.6% | 44.7% | -0.50 | 9.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ICFI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICFI | -0.4% | 32.2% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 29.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 26.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.6% | 0.42 | 2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 30.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 52.4% | 0.46 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ICFI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICFI | 7.2% | 32.4% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 41.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 37.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | -1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/24/2026 | 0.7% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 11.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -6.6% | -18.3% | -4.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 4.3% | -6.0% | -18.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -6.1% | -4.7% | -4.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | 5.4% | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -6.4% | 2.5% | -3.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -20.7% | -18.8% | -13.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.7% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 11.4% | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| Max Negative | -20.7% | -18.8% | -19.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/24/2026 | 0.7% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 11.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -6.6% | -18.3% | -4.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 4.3% | -6.0% | -18.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -6.1% | -4.7% | -4.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | 5.4% | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -6.4% | 2.5% | -3.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -20.7% | -18.8% | -13.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.5% | 0.1% | -19.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 9.9% | 8.1% | 13.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.6% | 5.3% | -0.8% |
| 2/27/2024 | -1.7% | -0.6% | -4.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 15.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.0% | 6.6% | 11.6% |
| 4/4/2023 | -0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 1/24/2023 | 0.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| 11/3/2022 | -10.0% | -6.4% | -5.5% |
| 8/3/2022 | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| 5/4/2022 | 0.9% | -2.7% | 2.5% |
| 2/24/2022 | 0.3% | -1.2% | 6.0% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.2% | 4.0% | -0.6% |
| 8/3/2021 | -0.2% | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| 5/4/2021 | 4.6% | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| 2/25/2021 | -1.9% | -0.2% | 4.4% |
| 11/5/2020 | -0.0% | 3.7% | 8.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.7% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 11.4% | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| Max Negative | -20.7% | -18.8% | -19.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wasson, John | CEO & President | John M. Wasson Remainder Trust 2022 | Sell | 9022026 | 88.32 | 6,400 | 565,252 | 559,864 | Form |
| 2 | Ostria, Sergio J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8262026 | 88.59 | 2,000 | 177,183 | 2,167,568 | Form |
| 3 | Wasson, John | CEO & President | John M. Wasson Rev. Trust | Sell | 7142026 | 80.08 | 12,411 | 993,918 | 2,203,180 | Form |
| 4 | Van, Handel Michael J | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 61.39 | 8,000 | 491,134 | 1,488,996 | Form | |
| 5 | Mehl, Randall | Direct | Buy | 3062026 | 74.30 | 1,100 | 81,730 | 1,602,948 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wasson, John | CEO & President | John M. Wasson Remainder Trust 2022 | Sell | 9022026 | 88.32 | 6,400 | 565,252 | 559,864 | Form |
| 2 | Ostria, Sergio J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8262026 | 88.59 | 2,000 | 177,183 | 2,167,568 | Form |
| 3 | Wasson, John | CEO & President | John M. Wasson Rev. Trust | Sell | 7142026 | 80.08 | 12,411 | 993,918 | 2,203,180 | Form |
| 4 | Van, Handel Michael J | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 61.39 | 8,000 | 491,134 | 1,488,996 | Form | |
| 5 | Mehl, Randall | Direct | Buy | 3062026 | 74.30 | 1,100 | 81,730 | 1,602,948 | Form | |
| 6 | Mehl, Randall | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 77.00 | 500 | 38,500 | 1,576,498 | Form | |
| 7 | Mehl, Randall | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 78.14 | 500 | 39,069 | 1,560,736 | Form | |
| 8 | Morgan, James C M | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 95.19 | 2,400 | 228,466 | 3,779,594 | Form |
| 9 | Morgan, James C M | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 9292025 | 95.00 | 100 | 9,500 | 3,999,880 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 30, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Research & Consulting Services Resources |
| Consultancy.org |
| Gartner Research |
| Forrester Insights |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.