Garmin (GRMN)
Market Price (2/27/2026): $253.41 | Market Cap: $48.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Consumer Electronics
Garmin (GRMN)
Market Price (2/27/2026): $253.41Market Cap: $48.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Consumer Electronics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Key risksGRMN key risks include [1] persistent operating losses in its Auto OEM segment, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Precision Positioning & Navigation. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Precision Positioning & Navigation. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x |
| Key risksGRMN key risks include [1] persistent operating losses in its Auto OEM segment, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Q4 2025 Earnings Beat and Record Full-Year Performance: Garmin significantly surpassed analyst expectations for its fourth quarter of 2025, reporting revenue of $2.12 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, and Pro Forma EPS of $2.79, which beat consensus estimates by $0.40. The company also achieved a record full-year 2025 revenue of $7.25 billion, representing a 15% increase from the prior year.
2. Robust Growth Across Diversified Business Segments: All five of Garmin's business segments recorded new annual revenue highs in 2025, with the Fitness segment leading the way with a substantial 33% increase to $2.36 billion. This broad-based strength demonstrates healthy demand across its product portfolio.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.3% change in GRMN stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 213.03 | 254.16 | 19.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,943 | 7,246 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.6% | 23.0% | 1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.1 | 29.4 | 12.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 192 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 19.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 55.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.4% | 52.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.1% change in GRMN stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 217.01 | 254.16 | 17.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,758 | 7,246 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.2% | 23.0% | -1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.6 | 29.4 | 10.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 193 | 192 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 17.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 49.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.9% | 48.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.7% change in GRMN stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 212.41 | 254.16 | 19.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,957 | 7,246 | 21.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.5% | 23.0% | -9.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.9 | 29.4 | 9.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 192 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 19.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 62.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.5% | 62.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 173.1% change in GRMN stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.07 | 254.16 | 173.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,946 | 7,246 | 46.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.5% | 23.0% | 17.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 29.4 | 58.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 193 | 192 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 173.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 173.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 49.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 61.2% | 46.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRMN Return | 15% | -30% | 43% | 63% | -0% | 24% | 134% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -8% | 19% | 24% | 34% | 10% | 156% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRMN Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 37% | 52% | 60% | 63% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRMN Max Drawdown | -4% | -41% | 0% | -7% | -16% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -19% | -15% | -7% | -16% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AAPL, GOOGL, RTX, HON, LHX. See GRMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 713.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,444 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AAPL, GOOGL, RTX, HON, LHX
In The Past
Garmin's stock fell -56.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/30/2021. A -56.0% loss requires a 127.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Garmin (GRMN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Garmin:
- The Apple Watch or Fitbit for serious athletes and outdoor adventurers.
- The DJI of precision GPS and activity tracking devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Smartwatches and Fitness Trackers: A wide range of wearable devices designed for fitness tracking, sports performance monitoring, and daily health insights.
- Automotive Navigation Devices: Dedicated GPS units providing turn-by-turn directions, traffic updates, and point-of-interest information for vehicles.
- Marine Navigation and Sonar Systems: Chartplotters, fishfinders, radars, and autopilots designed for boating, fishing, and marine safety.
- Aviation Navigation Systems: Integrated flight decks, portable GPS, and various sensors providing critical flight information and navigation for aircraft.
- Outdoor Handheld GPS and Satellite Communicators: Rugged portable devices offering GPS mapping, two-way satellite communication, and SOS capabilities for adventurers.
- Cycling Computers: GPS-enabled devices that mount on bicycles to track ride data, provide navigation, and monitor performance metrics.
- Dog Tracking and Training Devices: Systems that allow owners to track their dogs' locations and provide remote training commands using GPS technology.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin (symbol: GRMN) primarily sells its products directly to individual consumers, often through various retail channels (both online and physical stores). Therefore, its major customers are not other companies in a business-to-business (B2B) sense where Garmin supplies components or white-label products for integration into other companies' products or services.
Instead, Garmin serves a diverse range of individual customers, which can be categorized into the following three main groups:
- Fitness & Wellness Enthusiasts: This category includes individuals who are active in sports such as running, cycling, swimming, golf, and general fitness. They purchase Garmin's smartwatches, fitness trackers, cycling computers, heart rate monitors, and other related accessories to monitor their health, track performance, and achieve personal fitness goals.
- Outdoor & Marine Adventurers: This group comprises individuals who engage in outdoor activities like hiking, camping, hunting, fishing, and boating. They utilize Garmin's handheld GPS devices, rugged adventure watches, satellite communicators, marine chartplotters, fishfinders, and radar systems for navigation, communication, and specialized data acquisition in challenging environments.
- Aviation Professionals & Automotive Users: This category includes pilots (both professional and recreational) who rely on Garmin's avionics, integrated flight decks, and portable GPS navigation systems for aircraft. It also encompasses everyday drivers who use Garmin's in-car navigation devices, dash cameras, and backup cameras for safer and more efficient travel.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Clifton Pemble, President and Chief Executive Officer
Clifton Pemble joined Garmin International in 1989 as a software engineer, becoming one of the company's first associates. He advanced through various leadership positions, including systems engineering and software engineering management. In 2007, he was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer, a role he held until January 2013 when he was named CEO, succeeding co-founder Dr. Min Kao. Mr. Pemble has been a member of the Garmin Ltd. board of directors since August 2004. Before joining Garmin, he worked as a software engineer for AlliedSignal, focusing on earth-based and satellite-based navigation systems for general aviation.
Douglas Boessen, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Douglas Boessen joined Garmin in 2014 as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. In this role, he is responsible for Garmin Ltd.'s financial planning, accounting, investor relations, treasury, and internal audit functions. Mr. Boessen brings extensive experience with consumer brands and public companies, having spent 13 years as an independent auditor for Arthur Andersen and 15 years at Collective Brands, where he served in various capacities, including Chief Financial Officer.
Dr. Min Kao, Executive Chairman
Dr. Min Kao is a co-founder of Garmin. He previously served as the company's CEO before being succeeded by Clifton Pemble in January 2013. He currently holds the position of Executive Chairman.
Patrick Desbois, Co-Chief Operating Officer
Patrick Desbois was appointed to the newly created role of co-Chief Operating Officer, effective July 1, 2024. In this capacity, he provides executive oversight for Garmin's aviation and auto OEM segments, as well as global supply chain and operations, information technology, and human resources. Mr. Desbois joined Garmin in 2011 as Vice President, Executive Office, and was promoted to Executive Vice President of Operations in 2017. Prior to his time at Garmin, he was a senior director of engineering at Dell Computers for 10 years.
Brad Trenkle, Co-Chief Operating Officer
Brad Trenkle was appointed co-Chief Operating Officer, effective July 1, 2024. His responsibilities include executive oversight for Garmin's consumer business segments, engineering innovation and support, and global consumer sales, marketing, and creative efforts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Garmin's business (GRMN) are:
- Intense Competition: Garmin faces significant competition across its diverse business segments, particularly in the fitness wearables market, from major tech companies like Apple, Samsung, and Fitbit. This intense competition can lead to pressure on pricing and negatively impact profit margins. The fight for market share could put pressure on pricing and negatively impact margins.
- Geopolitical Risks and Trade Policies: Garmin's global operations are exposed to geopolitical risks and changing trade policies, including tariffs and currency fluctuations. For example, the company anticipated approximately $100 million in increased costs for fiscal year 2025 due to tariffs, which includes a baseline 10% on non-U.S. production and a 25% levy on China imports. Currency fluctuations, such as the strengthening Taiwan dollar, also directly increase manufacturing costs, contributing to margin compression. Geopolitical risks in Taiwan are also identified as a potential headwind.
- Persistent Losses in the Auto OEM Segment: Garmin's Auto OEM segment has consistently shown operating losses year-over-year. Despite revenue growth in this segment, operating expenses and foreign currency losses have contributed to it being an "eyesore" for overall operating income. Continued investment in this segment, coupled with its losses, may negatively impact total company profits.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing sophistication and ecosystem dominance of general-purpose smartwatches from tech giants, such as the Apple Watch Ultra and high-end Samsung Galaxy Watches, poses a clear emerging threat. These devices are continuously improving in areas traditionally considered Garmin's strengths, including GPS accuracy, advanced health sensors (e.g., ECG, blood oxygen, temperature sensing for cycle tracking), and extended battery life. By offering broader smart features and seamless integration into pervasive digital ecosystems, these increasingly capable general-purpose devices threaten to diminish Garmin's unique selling proposition for a wider athletic and outdoor audience, extending beyond its most dedicated niche.
Another clear emerging threat is the growing popularity and specialized insights offered by alternative biometric tracking devices, such as the Oura Ring and Whoop. These devices focus on passive, continuous monitoring of sleep, recovery, and overall wellness rather than active GPS tracking. While not direct competitors for Garmin's core sports watch segment, they compete for consumer attention and health-tracking budgets by providing deep, actionable insights into specific aspects of health, potentially fragmenting the overall wellness technology market and shifting consumer priorities away from comprehensive wrist-worn devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin (GRMN) operates across five main product segments: Fitness, Outdoor, Aviation, Marine, and Automotive OEM. The addressable market sizes for these segments are as follows:
- Fitness: The global wearable technology market, which encompasses many of Garmin's fitness products like smartwatches and fitness trackers, was estimated at USD 84.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 186.14 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2025 to 2030. North America held the largest share of this market, accounting for 34% in 2024. The global smartwatch market alone was valued at USD 33.58 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 105.20 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 15.43% from 2025 to 2032. In 2024, North America dominated the smartwatch market with a 38.71% market share. Furthermore, the global fitness tracker market size was estimated at USD 60.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 162.8 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 18.0% from 2025 to 2030. North America was the largest market for fitness trackers, holding 41.7% of the revenue share in 2024.
- Outdoor: For products such as GPS bike computers, a key offering in Garmin's outdoor segment, the global market was valued at USD 701.3 million in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 1.3 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% between 2025 and 2034. Europe held a significant share of approximately 35% of the global cycle computer market in 2024.
- Aviation: The global avionics market, where Garmin provides electronic systems for aircraft, was estimated at USD 44.68 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 85.29 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.7% from 2024 to 2030. North America was the leading region in the global avionics market, holding a 33.22% revenue share in 2023.
- Marine: The global marine electronics market, encompassing navigation, communication, and sonar systems, was estimated at USD 6.80 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 12.78 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 6.51% from 2025 to 2034. North America dominated the marine electronics market with the largest market share of 38% in 2024.
- Automotive OEM: The global automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) market size was valued at USD 36.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 53.28 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.67% during the forecast period. In 2024, Europe dominated this market with the largest revenue share of 42%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of sustained product innovation, expansion within its core segments, strategic acquisitions, and the launch of new services.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- New Product Introductions and Innovation Across Key Segments: Garmin consistently emphasizes its robust product portfolio and plans for numerous new product launches, some representing new categories. For example, in 2025, Garmin plans many product launches to strengthen its portfolio, with some representing new categories. Recent and upcoming introductions like the fēnix 8 series and Enduro 3 smartwatches are strengthening the outdoor segment. The company also received five CES 2026 Innovation Awards for products such as the fēnix 8 Pro - MicroLED, Venu 4, Forerunner 970, Blaze Equine Wellness System, and Descent S1 Buoy, indicating a continued focus on cutting-edge technology across fashion tech, digital health, sports & fitness, and pet & animal tech. The fitness segment, a key revenue driver, is also expected to see new product introductions throughout 2025, with revenue projected to increase by approximately 10%. This continuous pipeline of innovative products is crucial for maintaining market share and attracting new customers.
- Growth in High-Margin Aviation and Marine Segments: Garmin's "dual-engine strategy" highlights premium fitness wearables and high-margin aviation and marine segments as key growth drivers. The Marine segment has shown strong performance and is expected to continue growing, bolstered by acquisitions like JL Audio and Lumishore, which enhance its product offerings. Garmin was also recognized as the top marine electronics manufacturer for the tenth consecutive year in 2024 and named the Most Innovative Marine Company for 2025. Similarly, the Aviation segment has seen growth in both OEM and aftermarket product categories.
- Expansion in the Auto OEM Segment: The Auto OEM segment has demonstrated significant growth, with a 53% increase in revenue in Q3 2024, primarily driven by the growth in domain controllers. The successful launch of Garmin Design domain controllers across all remaining BMW car lines further contributes to this segment's momentum. This expansion within the automotive sector is expected to continue contributing to Garmin's overall revenue.
- Introduction of Subscription-Based Services: The launch of new services, such as the Garmin Connect+ premium service, is expected to boost subscription-based revenue growth. This service offers AI-based health and fitness insights, which can improve overall margins through higher-margin services. This move into recurring revenue streams can provide a more stable and predictable revenue base.
- Geographic Expansion and Market Penetration: Garmin has opportunities for expansion into emerging markets where demand for GPS-enabled devices and wearable technology is growing. Leveraging its strong brand and technological expertise to capture new customer segments and increase market share through strategic partnerships and localized product offerings could facilitate long-term growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On February 16, 2024, Garmin's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $300 million of the company's shares through December 26, 2026.
Share Issuance
- Garmin's shares outstanding were approximately 0.193 billion in 2024, marking a slight increase of 0.64% from 2023.
- For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, shares outstanding were 0.194 billion, representing a 0.19% increase year-over-year.
Outbound Investments
- Garmin made several acquisitions over the last three to five years, including MYLAPS in July 2025, Lumishore in October 2024, and JL Audio in August 2023.
- Other acquisitions include Vesper Marine in January 2022, AeroData in May 2021, GEOS Worldwide in January 2021, and Firstbeat in June 2020.
- Net acquisitions/divestitures were -$0.151 billion in 2023 and -$0.016 billion in 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for purchases of property and equipment were $185 million in 2020, $307 million in 2021, $244 million in 2022, $193 million in 2023, and $193 million in 2024.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 11302022 | GRMN | Garmin | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.6% | 35.3% | -2.2% |
| 02282022 | GRMN | Garmin | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -16.9% | -8.5% | -27.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 263.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 209.0 |
| Rev LTM | 64,636 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,496 |
| FCF LTM | 6,806 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,287 |
| CFO LTM | 9,026 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,436 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 209.0 |
| P/S | 5.2 |
| P/EBIT | 25.6 |
| P/E | 31.8 |
| P/CFO | 23.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 100.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 25.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 1,962 | 1,697 | 1,770 | 1,282 | 1,128 |
| Fitness | 1,774 | 1,345 | 1,109 | 1,534 | 1,317 |
| Marine | 1,073 | 917 | 904 | 875 | 658 |
| Aviation | 877 | 846 | 793 | 712 | 623 |
| Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | 611 | 423 | 284 | 255 | 185 |
| Consumer Auto | 325 | 275 | |||
| Total | 6,297 | 5,228 | 4,860 | 4,983 | 4,187 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 703 | 515 | 573 | 476 | 441 |
| Fitness | 483 | 232 | 105 | 359 | 319 |
| Marine | 236 | 179 | 215 | 250 | 176 |
| Aviation | 211 | 226 | 213 | 193 | 137 |
| Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) | -39 | -61 | -79 | -108 | -60 |
| Consumer Auto | 48 | 41 | |||
| Total | 1,594 | 1,092 | 1,028 | 1,219 | 1,054 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $254.16 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 48.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/08/2000 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $212.14 | $217.69 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.1% | 35.8% |
| Downside Capture | 103.14 | 129.08 |
| Upside Capture | 263.59 | 122.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.5% | 66.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| Up Beta | 1.91 | 1.51 | 1.19 | 1.76 | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 2.86 | 2.56 | 1.88 | 1.53 | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Up Capture | 92% | 154% | 83% | 79% | 116% | 97% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 32 | 68 | 141 | 411 |
| Down Capture | 144% | 144% | 124% | 134% | 119% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 57 | 110 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 14.3% | 35.6% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.9% | 24.1% | 0.30 | 66.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.1% | 19.4% | 0.69 | 66.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.3% | 25.7% | 2.25 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 16.8% | 0.45 | 24.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 16.6% | 0.21 | 54.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.4% | 45.1% | -0.46 | 29.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 17.1% | 30.0% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.5% | 23.8% | 0.28 | 53.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 57.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 47.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 57.0% | 0.29 | 23.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GRMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN | 23.4% | 28.1% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.6% | 21.9% | 0.57 | 56.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 60.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.81 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.3% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 15.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 9.4% | 15.9% | |
| 10/29/2025 | -11.5% | -17.2% | -21.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -7.4% | -4.6% | -1.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | 12.6% | 5.2% | -2.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 23.2% | 22.8% | 27.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -4.5% | -8.2% | 0.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | 13.1% | 17.6% | 12.7% |
| 2/21/2024 | 8.8% | 9.7% | 20.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -5.3% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 23.2% | 22.8% | 27.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.5% | -17.2% | -25.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pemble, Clifton A | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 206.23 | 10,431 | 2,151,162 | 27,877,873 | Form |
| 2 | Boessen, Douglas G | CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 206.26 | 2,485 | 512,562 | 5,964,280 | Form |
| 3 | Wang, Cheng-Wei | General Manager - Garmin Corp. | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 232.48 | 10,202 | 2,371,780 | 8,390,734 | Form |
| 4 | Link, Edward J | VP, Information Technology | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 230.00 | 1,718 | 395,140 | 6,371,690 | Form |
| 5 | Minard, Laurie A | VP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 230.00 | 787 | 181,010 | 1,045,810 | Form |
GRMN Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.82x is attractive. While the competitive risk from Apple is significant, it is a known factor. The current valuation appears to fairly price this risk. The Alpha Driver—dominance in high-margin, high-barrier professional niches—provides a stable earnings base, while the strong secular tailwind in wearables offers a path to upside, making the risk/reward compelling.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowGarmin exhibits key 'Mature Cash Cow' traits: a debt-free balance sheet, high and consistent margins (Gross ~59%, Operating ~25%), and strong free cash flow conversion. Its growth, while solid in specific segments, is in the high single digits overall, disqualifying it from 'High-Beta Compounder'. The focus is on defending profitable niches and efficient capital return.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on the durability of Garmin's high-margin professional segments (Aviation, Marine, and Outdoor). These niches are protected by significant barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles (FAA certification), high switching costs (hardware integration/training), and superior product performance (battery life, durability) that generalist competitors like Apple cannot easily replicate. This creates a highly profitable and predictable earnings stream that anchors the company's valuation.
- Aviation and Marine segments deliver significantly higher operating margins than the more competitive Fitness segment.
- Regulatory Protection: FAA certifications create a 'nearly impenetrable' barrier to entry in the high-margin aviation business.
- Product Performance: Garmin's Fenix line offers battery life measured in weeks, a critical feature for serious athletes that the Apple Watch cannot match.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the gradual erosion of Garmin's competitive advantage in the high-end consumer wearables space by Apple. As Apple continues to add specialized features to its Watch Ultra line (e.g., satellite SOS connectivity, enhanced durability, advanced health sensors), it narrows the performance gap with Garmin's premium Fenix and Outdoor watches. This could cap Garmin's growth in its largest and fastest-growing segments (Fitness/Outdoor), leading to market share loss and margin compression over time.
- Apple is identified as a 'STRUCTURAL' threat with high revenue exposure (>40%).
- The Apple Watch Ultra 3 (2025) added satellite SOS and 5G, directly competing with core Garmin features.
- Garmin's Outdoor segment revenue growth decelerated sharply, turning negative (-5% YoY) in Q3 2025, showing vulnerability in this key high-margin consumer area.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Outdoor Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | Return to Positive Growth | This high-margin segment's recent -5% YoY decline was a major driver of the stock's negative reaction. A return to growth is critical to validate the durability of Garmin's high-end consumer franchise. |
| Fitness Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | Sustain >25% | As the largest and fastest-growing segment, Fitness is the primary engine for the company's overall growth. Any significant deceleration below its current +30% rate would signal market share loss to Apple and invalidate the growth compounder thesis. |
| Consolidated Gross Margin | Stabilize above 59% | The recent 90bps decline in gross margin is a concern. A stable or expanding margin is necessary to prove Garmin is maintaining its pricing power and that the accelerating Fitness growth is not coming at the expense of overall profitability. |
Fitness Growth vs. High-Margin Outdoor Decay
BULL VIEW
Fitness segment's +30% YoY growth is capturing market share from Apple. The Outdoor weakness is a temporary issue due to tough product cycle comparisons.
CORE TENSION
Can strong, lower-margin Fitness growth offset the significant deceleration and margin pressure in the historically profitable Outdoor segment, which the market punished heavily last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock fell ~11.5% after its Q3 2025 earnings, despite a guidance raise, due to a -5% YoY decline in the high-margin Outdoor segment and a 90bps drop in consolidated gross margin.
BEAR VIEW
The Outdoor segment's -5% YoY decline and guidance cut, plus rising inventory and compressing gross margins, signal weakening consumer demand for high-end products.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call & 2026 Guidance Watch: 2026 Gross Margin Guidance and Days of Inventory. A sequential reduction in inventory is critical to prove demand is not collapsing. |
June - September 2026 | Apple WWDC / September Hardware Event Watch: Launch of a next-gen Apple Watch Ultra with significant battery life extension (>7 days) or new, exclusive health sensors (e.g., blood pressure, glucose). |
Ongoing (Monthly/Quarterly) | Quarterly Consumer Credit & Retail Sales Data Watch: YoY change in 90-day+ auto and credit card delinquency rates. A continued sharp increase signals consumer stress. |
Ongoing, potential ruling in H1 2026 | ECHA / EPA Regulatory Rulings on PFAS Watch: Final ECHA ruling on PFAS restrictions; specifically, whether exemptions are granted for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-30 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Garmin reported Q2 2025 earnings. Despite an EPS beat, the stock fell notably, indicating potential market concerns over guidance or segment performance. | Plummeted -7.44% $237.38 -> $219.72 |
2025-08-19 | Major Software Feature Update Details: Garmin announced its August 2025 Feature Update, rolling out 18 new features to multiple smartwatches including the Fenix and Forerunner series. | Flat (0.36%) $230.74 -> $231.58 |
2025-10-29 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite record Q3 revenue of $1.77B and a raised EPS guidance, the stock crashed due to a -5% revenue decline in the high-margin Outdoor segment and a gross margin decline. | Plummeted -11.48% $247.03 -> $218.67 |
2026-01-06 | CES 2026 Product Showcase Details: At CES 2026, Garmin unveiled its 'Unified Cabin 2026' for the automotive sector, featuring a next-generation AI-based virtual assistant and other infotainment advancements. | Rose significantly by 2.74% $203.76 -> $209.35 |
2026-01-14 | Q4 2025 Earnings Date Announcement Details: Garmin announced it would host its Q4 2025 earnings conference call on Wednesday, February 18, 2026. | Slight -1.12% pullback $213.91 -> $211.52 |
2026-02-03 | New Product Launch Details: Garmin announced the Varia RearVue 820, a new rear-facing cycling radar and tail light, adding advanced vehicle tracking and USB-C charging. | Rose significantly by 2.01% $201.22 -> $205.26 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock is in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish fundamental sentiment, driven by margin pressure and slowing high-end segments, warrants a Conservative 'Watchlist' position until visibility improves and the inventory situation stabilizes.
Diversification Alternatives
BIRK
SECTORUnlike Garmin, Birkenstock is a brand/fashion play, not a tech hardware company, insulating it from technological obsolescence risk from Apple. It possesses strong pricing power and brand loyalty.
PLNT
SECTORPlanet Fitness has a recurring revenue membership model, offering higher visibility than Garmin's transactional hardware sales. It is also less exposed to discretionary trade-downs due to its value positioning.
Trading at a 28x P/E, Garmin is evolving from a consumer-focused GPS device maker into a diversified technology leader with high-margin, specialized products in Aviation (76% GM) and Marine (52% GM), while its Fitness segment (59% GM) continues to drive record revenue growth.
Filter all news through the lens of margin sustainability and segment diversification, focusing on whether Garmin can defend its premium pricing and high-margin segments (Aviation/Outdoor) against competition from big tech.
Sustained gross margins >58%; Aviation/Marine/Outdoor segments growing revenue >10% YoY; new Auto OEM design wins with named automakers like BMW or Mercedes-Benz converting to revenue; market share gains in the high-end wearables category against Apple Watch Ultra.
Gross margin compression below 58% due to competitive pricing pressure; revenue deceleration in high-margin Aviation or Marine segments; major tech competitors like Apple making significant inroads into specialized fitness/outdoor features; operating losses widening in the Auto OEM segment.
Quarterly fluctuations in consumer wearables unit shipments (already expected); minor price changes on legacy products; standard product refresh cycles for non-flagship models.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of Garmin's durable, high-margin business model outside of the hyper-competitive consumer fitness space. Growth in the Aviation segment (+13% YoY in FY2025) and Marine (+10% YoY), which carry gross margins of 75% and 55% respectively, provides a stable, high-profit base that differentiates it from pure-play consumer electronics companies.
Fitness & Wearable Tech
$2.4B TTM (32.5% of Total) · 59% MarginWhat It Is
Forerunner running watches (e.g., 970), Venu smartwatches (e.g., Venu 4), fēnix adventure watches, cycling computers, and health monitoring devices.
Who Pays & How
Consumers, from casual fitness users to serious athletes, pay for superior battery life, specialized training/recovery metrics (Body Battery, Training Readiness), and durability that surpasses general-purpose smartwatches.
Competition
Outdoor Recreation GPS
$2.1B TTM (28.3% of Total) · 66% MarginWhat It Is
fēnix and epix adventure watches, inReach satellite communicators (e.g., Mini 3 Plus), and handheld GPS devices.
Who Pays & How
Hikers, mountaineers, trail runners, and hunters pay for rugged devices with long battery life and life-saving features like two-way satellite communication and SOS messaging where cellular service is unavailable.
Competition
Aviation
$1.0B TTM (13.6% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
Integrated flight decks (G5000H), autopilots, navigation/communication transceivers, and aviator smartwatches (D2 Mach 2).
Who Pays & How
Aircraft OEMs and private aircraft owners pay for certified, mission-critical avionics. Switching costs are extremely high due to FAA certification requirements, deep integration into aircraft, and pilot training.
Competition
Marine
$1.2B TTM (16.3% of Total) · 52% MarginWhat It Is
Chartplotters (GPSMAP 9000xsv series), fish finders, sonar modules, and autopilots.
Who Pays & How
Boat owners and manufacturers pay for integrated marine electronics that enhance navigation, fish finding, and safety. The components are designed as an integrated system, creating high switching costs.
Competition
Automotive OEM
$0.7B TTM (9.2% of Total) · 17% MarginWhat It Is
Domain controllers, infotainment systems, and navigation software for automakers.
Who Pays & How
Automakers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz pay for integrated cockpit solutions. The economic lock-in is extremely high due to multi-year design cycles, deep software integration, and the high cost of switching to a new supplier mid-platform.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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