First Solar (FSLR)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $217.78 | Market Cap: $23.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
First Solar (FSLR)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $217.78Market Cap: $23.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 7.1% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Key risksFSLR key risks include [1] a high dependency on specific U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Key risksFSLR key risks include [1] a high dependency on specific U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Lower-than-expected Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Guidance. First Solar reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026, posting earnings per share (EPS) of $4.84, which missed Wall Street expectations of $5.22. Additionally, the company's full-year 2026 revenue guidance, ranging from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion, came in below analyst forecasts. This news led to a nearly 20% decline in First Solar's shares in the subsequent three trading sessions.
2. Operational Uncertainty in Southeast Asia Due to Trade Dynamics. First Solar's manufacturing facilities in Malaysia and Vietnam have been operating at significantly reduced utilization. This underutilization is attributed to evolving trade dynamics and lower average selling prices for internationally produced modules. The company has noted that the future utilization of this capacity depends on the unresolved outcome of Section 232 tariffs, creating near-term operational uncertainty and potential margin pressures.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.3% change in FSLR stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 225.52 | 218.00 | -3.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,051 | 5,419 | 7.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.7% | 30.7% | 10.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.3 | 14.1 | -18.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSLR | -3.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 21.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 18.3% | 14.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.3% change in FSLR stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 266.94 | 218.00 | -18.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,051 | 5,419 | 7.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.7% | 30.7% | 10.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.4 | 14.1 | -31.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSLR | -18.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 28.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.4% | 24.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 73.3% change in FSLR stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 125.82 | 218.00 | 73.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,257 | 5,419 | 27.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.7% | 30.7% | 3.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.7 | 14.1 | 31.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 73.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSLR | 73.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 62.9% | 27.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.4% change in FSLR stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 1966.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 182.58 | 218.00 | 19.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,801 | 5,419 | 93.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 30.7% | 1966.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 467.6 | 14.1 | -97.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSLR | 19.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 130.2% | 29.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSLR Return | -12% | 72% | 15% | 2% | 48% | -16% | 122% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -7% | 18% | -15% | 62% | 3% | 65% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 6% | 93% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSLR Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 52% | 43% | 38% | 53% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSLR Max Drawdown | -30% | -30% | -12% | -19% | -32% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -41% | -50% | -52% | -37% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ENPH, RUN, SEDG, CSIQ, NVDA. See FSLR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSLR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 6 days |
In The Past
First Solar's stock fell -25.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.0% gain to breakeven.
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Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | FSLR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -65.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3963 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 222.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5682 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 47 days |
In The Past
First Solar's stock fell -25.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About First Solar (FSLR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for First Solar (FSLR):
The Intel of solar panels.
A manufacturing powerhouse for solar energy, akin to how Boeing manufactures airplanes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cadmium Telluride Solar Modules: These modules are designed, manufactured, and sold by First Solar to convert sunlight into electricity for various solar energy applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
First Solar (FSLR) primarily sells its photovoltaic (PV) solar modules and solutions to other companies rather than individuals. According to First Solar's public disclosures, no single customer accounted for 10% or more of its net sales in recent fiscal years, indicating a diversified customer base rather than reliance on a few major named customers.
Therefore, while specific named major customer companies with their symbols cannot be listed, First Solar serves various categories of companies within the solar energy ecosystem. These customer categories, as described by the company, include:
- Developers and operators of systems: Companies that design, build, and manage large-scale solar power projects.
- Utilities: Large electric power companies that generate, transmit, and distribute electricity, integrating solar power into their grids.
- Independent Power Producers (IPPs): Entities that own and operate facilities to generate electricity, which they then sell to utilities, end-users, or other intermediaries.
- Commercial and Industrial (C&I) companies: Businesses that purchase solar solutions for their own energy consumption or to integrate into their operations.
- Other system owners: A broader category encompassing various entities that own and operate solar energy systems.
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Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer
Mark Widmar was appointed Chief Executive Officer of First Solar in July 2016, having joined the company as Chief Financial Officer in April 2011. He also served as First Solar's Chief Accounting Officer from February 2012 through June 2015. Before joining First Solar, Mr. Widmar served as Chief Financial Officer of GrafTech International Ltd., a global manufacturer of advanced carbon and graphite materials, from May 2006 through March 2011. Prior to GrafTech, he was Corporate Controller of NCR Inc. from 2005 to 2006, and a Business Unit Chief Financial Officer for NCR from November 2002. He also served as a Division Controller at Dell, Inc. from August 2000 to November 2002. Mr. Widmar held various financial and managerial positions with Lucent Technologies Inc., Allied Signal, Inc., and Bristol Myers/Squibb, Inc., and began his career in 1987 as an accountant with Ernst & Young.
Alex Bradley, Chief Financial Officer
Alex Bradley currently serves as the Chief Financial Officer. He was appointed interim Chief Financial Officer effective July 1, 2016, succeeding Mark Widmar. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President, Treasury & Project Finance at First Solar.
Georges Antoun, Chief Commercial Officer
Georges Antoun was appointed Chief Commercial Officer in July 2016. He joined First Solar in July 2012 as Chief Operating Officer before being appointed President, U.S. in July 2015. Mr. Antoun has over 30 years of operational and technical experience, including leadership positions at several global technology companies. Prior to joining First Solar, Mr. Antoun served as a Venture Partner at Technology Crossover Ventures ("TCV"), a private equity and venture firm, which he joined in July 2011. Before TCV, Mr. Antoun was the Head of Product Area IP & Broadband Networks for Ericsson. After Ericsson's acquisition of Redback Networks, he became the CEO of the Redback subsidiary and the Head of Product Area IP & Broadband Networks for Ericsson. He also held senior leadership roles at Redback Networks, Inc., including Senior Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations and Product Management. Mr. Antoun spent five years at Cisco Systems, where he served as Vice President of Worldwide Systems Engineering and Field Marketing, Vice President of Worldwide Optical Operations, and Vice President of Carrier Sales. He also held senior management positions at Newbridge Networks and Nynex (now Verizon Communications).
Michael Koralewski, Chief Supply Chain Officer
Michael Koralewski was appointed Chief Supply Chain Officer in November 2022. In this role, he is accountable for maintaining executive oversight of First Solar's strategic global supply chain. He previously served as First Solar's Chief Manufacturing Operations Officer and brings over 25 years of global operational experience to the executive leadership team.
Kuntal Kumar Verma, Chief Manufacturing Officer
Kuntal Kumar Verma was appointed Chief Manufacturing Officer in November 2022. He is responsible for First Solar's global manufacturing operations and engineering, including its performance and improvement roadmap, global technology scaling, new plant start-ups, and strategic initiatives. Mr. Verma previously served as First Solar's Chief Manufacturing Engineering Officer. He joined First Solar in 2002 and has served in progressively more senior roles in engineering and manufacturing, including Vice President, Global Manufacturing Engineering since 2012.
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```htmlKey Risks to First Solar (FSLR)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) faces several key risks that could impact its business operations and financial performance. These risks are primarily driven by the dynamic nature of the solar energy industry, its reliance on governmental support, and intense market competition.
- Reliance on Government Subsidies and Policy Changes: First Solar's profitability and valuation are significantly influenced by government incentives, particularly the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (Section 45X) from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This credit provides substantial financial benefits to domestic solar manufacturers like First Solar. The potential repeal or modification of such tax credits and other favorable policies poses a major risk, as it could significantly impact the company's profitability, investment plans, and competitive edge. The company's financial guidance for 2025 heavily relies on these tax credits, and without them, adjusted operating margins would be dramatically lower.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure: The solar industry is characterized by fierce pricing competition, with numerous players, including Chinese manufacturers who often benefit from lower cost structures and government subsidies. This competitive environment can pressure module manufacturers to reduce prices, potentially impacting First Solar's profitability and market share. Additionally, the emergence of new domestic competitors, such as Tesla's stated plans to expand large-scale solar manufacturing, could further intensify competition and weigh on long-term pricing expectations for First Solar's products.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Raw Material Dependence: First Solar relies on a limited number of suppliers for crucial raw materials like cadmium telluride (CdTe), tellurium, and substrate glass. This dependence creates vulnerability to manufacturing delays or the inability to deliver products at profitable prices if supplier performance is compromised or if there are disruptions in the supply chain. Tariffs and trade wars can also disrupt supply chains, increase costs, and introduce uncertainty, as seen with new U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) tariffs impacting First Solar's global supply chain and leading to a downward revision of its 2025 financial guidance.
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Perovskite solar cells
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for First Solar's main products and services are substantial, primarily within the cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) and broader thin-film PV and overall solar PV markets.
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Photovoltaic Market
- Globally, the cadmium telluride thin-film solar cells market was valued at approximately USD 2.48 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 5 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.6% from 2025 to 2035.
- Another estimate places the global Cadmium Telluride Photovoltaic Market at USD 12.19 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach over USD 42.77 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.96% from 2025 to 2033.
- The North American cadmium telluride market was valued at USD 715 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,667 million by 2035.
- First Solar is a dominant player in this niche, accounting for over 90% of global CdTe PV production. In the U.S. utility-scale solar market, CdTe technology's share increased to 30% by 2022.
- Worldwide annual manufacturing capacity for CdTe solar PV products could reach 100 GW by 2030.
Thin-Film Photovoltaic Market
- The global thin-film photovoltaic market was valued at USD 15.67 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 33.47 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 8.8% during the forecast period (2025-2033).
- Other estimates suggest the global thin-film solar cell market reached USD 17.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 44.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.2% from 2025 to 2033.
- The North American thin-film solar PV market accounted for 45% of the global thin-film solar PV market share in 2024.
Overall Solar PV Market
- The global solar PV market size was valued at USD 334.21 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 609.30 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.6% from 2025 to 2030.
- The U.S. solar power market was valued at USD 53.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 123.86 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.19% from 2025 to 2032.
- First Solar held an estimated 21.7% of the total revenue in the U.S. Solar Panel Manufacturing industry in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for First Solar (FSLR)
First Solar, Inc. is anticipated to experience revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors:
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Expansion of Manufacturing Capacity
First Solar is significantly expanding its manufacturing footprint, particularly within the United States. The company is commissioning new facilities in Alabama and Louisiana, with plans for an additional facility in South Carolina. A new 3.7 GW module finishing line in the U.S. is expected to commence operations in Q4 2026 and ramp up production through the first half of 2027. These expansions are projected to increase First Solar's active U.S. manufacturing capacity to approximately 11 GW and over 14 GW by the end of 2026.
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Benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Section 45X Tax Credits
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a substantial driver of revenue growth, positioning First Solar as a direct beneficiary of government incentives. The company expects to qualify for the advanced manufacturing production credit under Section 45X of the IRA, which provides approximately $0.17 per watt for each module produced in the U.S. and sold to third parties. These tax credits are expected to contribute significantly to gross margin and overall financial performance. First Solar's 2026 guidance explicitly assumes a continued favorable U.S. policy environment and the benefits of Section 45X tax credits.
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Strong Backlog and Global Demand
First Solar maintains a robust contracted backlog, indicating sustained future sales. The company ended 2024 with a contracted backlog of 68.5 GW, representing an aggregate value of $20.5 billion. As of Q3 2025, the total backlog of bookings extended to 54.5 GW through 2030. In 2025, First Solar achieved record sales of 17.5 GW modules, supported by strong demand in the U.S. and India. The volume of modules expected to be sold in 2026 is projected to be between 17 GW and 18.2 GW.
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Differentiated Technology and Product Innovation
First Solar's focus on cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar modules provides a differentiated offering compared to conventional crystalline silicon PV technology. The company is continuously investing in research and development, including expanding its R&D footprint and establishing a new innovation center in Ohio to accelerate technological advancements. This includes progressing its perovskite thin-film program, initiating commercial production of CuRe modules, and ramping up production of Series 7 modules.
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Favorable Pricing and Cost Structure Optimization
Forecasts indicate a positive market trend for cadmium telluride (CdTe) pricing, with expectations of further price growth. First Solar's updated contracting structure is designed to provide average selling price (ASP) upsides and mitigate gross margin risks. The company anticipates leveraging its largely fixed selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) cost structure, allowing growth in volume to drive incremental contribution and operating margin expansion. The U.S. ASP is forecast at $0.308 per watt for 2026.
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Share Repurchases
- First Solar's capital allocation has focused on reinvestment rather than direct returns to shareholders, and the company has not paid dividends over the last five years.
- Share repurchase activity has been minimal, with the buyback yield averaging 0.1% for fiscal years 2021 to 2025.
Share Issuance
- Shares outstanding remained remarkably stable, increasing slightly from 106 million in fiscal year 2020 to 107 million in fiscal year 2024.
- The minor increase in shares outstanding is attributed to dilution from stock-based compensation plans, rather than major equity raises.
Capital Expenditures
- First Solar has undertaken aggressive capital expenditures to expand its manufacturing capacity and invest in technology.
- Capital expenditures amounted to $1.4 billion in 2023 and $1.5 billion in 2024, primarily focused on facilities, including those in Alabama and Louisiana.
- The company plans to spend between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion on capital expenditures in 2025 for new facilities, upgrades to machinery and equipment, and an R&D innovation center in Ohio.
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 03132026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.0% | 3.0% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,188 |
| Op Inc LTM | 73 |
| FCF LTM | 113 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -91 |
| CFO LTM | 148 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 136 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 69.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 41.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.0 |
| P/EBIT | 21.9 |
| P/E | 10.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -9.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 82.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -41.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 52.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -122.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $218.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/17/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $197.22 | $222.51 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 10.5% | -2.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.3% | 60.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| Upside Capture | -3.67 | 131.77 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.4% | 26.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.32 | 1.09 | 0.72 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | 2.53 | 2.15 | 0.80 | 0.54 | 1.55 | 1.01 |
| Down Beta | 8.80 | 1.88 | 1.07 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 12% | 37% | 5% | 94% | 127% | 108% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 62 | 128 | 366 |
| Down Capture | -390% | 53% | 115% | 145% | 106% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 31 | 63 | 123 | 386 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | 65.4% | 60.3% | 1.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 59.0% | 20.6% | 2.14 | 27.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.5% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 26.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.9% | 18.0% | 2.20 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 3.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.2% | 42.1% | -0.25 | 8.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | 19.2% | 53.3% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.1% | 24.8% | 0.72 | 33.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.9% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 9.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.7% | 56.1% | 0.37 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | 13.0% | 50.3% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.3% | 24.4% | 0.90 | 37.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 37.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 16.0% | 0.71 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | -13.6% | -18.8% | -20.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | 14.3% | 16.4% | 12.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | 5.3% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.3% | -14.0% | -20.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.1% | 8.1% | -3.6% |
| 7/30/2024 | 2.4% | -0.2% | 8.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | 2.9% | 9.7% | 15.5% |
| 10/31/2023 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 10.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 9.6% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -7.4% | -15.0% |
| Max Positive | 15.7% | 26.7% | 37.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.6% | -18.8% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Module Sales | 3.40 Bil | 3.70 Bil | 4.00 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Section 45X Tax Credits | 330.00 Mil | 365.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 400.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 4.90 Bil | 5.05 Bil | 5.20 Bil | -0.5% | Lower New | Actual: 5.08 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.60 Bil | 2.70 Bil | 2.80 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Volume Sold | 17.00 Bil | 17.60 Bil | 18.20 Bil | 3.2% | Higher New | Actual: 17.05 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin | 2.4E11% | 2.5E11% | 2.6E11% | 16.3% | Higher New | Actual: 2.15E11% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Expenses | 610.00 Mil | 622.50 Mil | 635.00 Mil | 18.6% | Higher New | Actual: 525.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 800.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | -14.3% | Lower New | Actual: 1.05 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Cash Balance | 1.70 Bil | 2.00 Bil | 2.30 Bil | 8.1% | Higher New | Actual: 1.85 Bil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 4.95 Bil | 5.08 Bil | 5.20 Bil | -4.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.30 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Margin | 2.1E11% | 2.15E11% | 2.2E11% | -2.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.2E11% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Expenses | 515.00 Mil | 525.00 Mil | 535.00 Mil | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Income | 1.56 Bil | 1.62 Bil | 1.68 Bil | -4.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.70 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 14 | 14.5 | 15 | -3.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 15 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Cash Balance | 1.60 Bil | 1.85 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 12.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.65 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 900.00 Mil | 1.05 Bil | 1.20 Bil | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antoun, Georges | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 215.63 | 566 | 122,047 | 4,294,918 | Form |
| 2 | Bradley, Alexander R | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 215.63 | 498 | 107,384 | 6,622,429 | Form |
| 3 | Koralewski, Michael | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 215.63 | 215 | 46,360 | 3,157,254 | Form |
| 4 | Buehler, Patrick James | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 215.63 | 235 | 50,673 | 1,596,956 | Form |
| 5 | Dymbort, Jason E | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 215.63 | 409 | 88,193 | 2,244,493 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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