Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (7/14/2026): $45.43 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (7/14/2026): $45.43Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 119% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/6/2026
Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic headwind from decreased aluminum price forecasts due to faster-than-expected Middle East supply recovery. Goldman Sachs significantly cut its 2026 global aluminum deficit forecast from 720,000 metric tons to 100,000 metric tons, and raised its 2027 surplus estimate to approximately 1.5 million metric tons. This led to a reduction in its Q4 2026 LME aluminum forecast to $2,950 per ton from $3,200 per ton, and its 2027 average price forecast to $2,700 per ounce from $2,950 per ounce, following a Middle East peace deal and the anticipated recovery of regional supply.
2. Significant insider selling by a major stakeholder and the CEO. Glencore, a key stakeholder, sold 9,000,000 shares for an estimated $272.25 million on March 4, 2026. Additionally, CEO Jesse E. Gary sold 150,000 shares valued at approximately $7.23 million on January 23, 2026. These substantial insider sales could signal a cautious outlook from company leadership and major investors.
Show more
Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic headwind from decreased aluminum price forecasts due to faster-than-expected Middle East supply recovery. Goldman Sachs significantly cut its 2026 global aluminum deficit forecast from 720,000 metric tons to 100,000 metric tons, and raised its 2027 surplus estimate to approximately 1.5 million metric tons. This led to a reduction in its Q4 2026 LME aluminum forecast to $2,950 per ton from $3,200 per ton, and its 2027 average price forecast to $2,700 per ounce from $2,950 per ounce, following a Middle East peace deal and the anticipated recovery of regional supply.
2. Significant insider selling by a major stakeholder and the CEO. Glencore, a key stakeholder, sold 9,000,000 shares for an estimated $272.25 million on March 4, 2026. Additionally, CEO Jesse E. Gary sold 150,000 shares valued at approximately $7.23 million on January 23, 2026. These substantial insider sales could signal a cautious outlook from company leadership and major investors.
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Updated on 7/6/2026
Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic headwind from decreased aluminum price forecasts due to faster-than-expected Middle East supply recovery. Goldman Sachs significantly cut its 2026 global aluminum deficit forecast from 720,000 metric tons to 100,000 metric tons, and raised its 2027 surplus estimate to approximately 1.5 million metric tons. This led to a reduction in its Q4 2026 LME aluminum forecast to $2,950 per ton from $3,200 per ton, and its 2027 average price forecast to $2,700 per ounce from $2,950 per ounce, following a Middle East peace deal and the anticipated recovery of regional supply.
2. Significant insider selling by a major stakeholder and the CEO. Glencore, a key stakeholder, sold 9,000,000 shares for an estimated $272.25 million on March 4, 2026. Additionally, CEO Jesse E. Gary sold 150,000 shares valued at approximately $7.23 million on January 23, 2026. These substantial insider sales could signal a cautious outlook from company leadership and major investors.
3. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q1 2026. Century Aluminum reported an adjusted EPS of $1.63 for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, missing analyst estimates of $1.65 by 1.21% when the results were announced on May 7, 2026. While net sales of $649.2 million beat estimates, the adjusted EPS miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
4. Heightened aluminum market volatility despite operational ramps. After an initial surge in aluminum prices in fiscal Q2 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions, the market experienced a sharp reversal. The stock saw a "sharp 30-day decline of over 31%" leading up to June 26, 2026, as geopolitical supply-shock premiums dissipated. This volatility in commodity prices overshadowed positive company-specific developments like the Mt. Holly smelter expansion targeting full output by the end of fiscal Q2 2026, which was expected to drive higher adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
Show less
Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic headwind from decreased aluminum price forecasts due to faster-than-expected Middle East supply recovery. Goldman Sachs significantly cut its 2026 global aluminum deficit forecast from 720,000 metric tons to 100,000 metric tons, and raised its 2027 surplus estimate to approximately 1.5 million metric tons. This led to a reduction in its Q4 2026 LME aluminum forecast to $2,950 per ton from $3,200 per ton, and its 2027 average price forecast to $2,700 per ounce from $2,950 per ounce, following a Middle East peace deal and the anticipated recovery of regional supply.
2. Significant insider selling by a major stakeholder and the CEO. Glencore, a key stakeholder, sold 9,000,000 shares for an estimated $272.25 million on March 4, 2026. Additionally, CEO Jesse E. Gary sold 150,000 shares valued at approximately $7.23 million on January 23, 2026. These substantial insider sales could signal a cautious outlook from company leadership and major investors.
3. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q1 2026. Century Aluminum reported an adjusted EPS of $1.63 for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, missing analyst estimates of $1.65 by 1.21% when the results were announced on May 7, 2026. While net sales of $649.2 million beat estimates, the adjusted EPS miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
4. Heightened aluminum market volatility despite operational ramps. After an initial surge in aluminum prices in fiscal Q2 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions, the market experienced a sharp reversal. The stock saw a "sharp 30-day decline of over 31%" leading up to June 26, 2026, as geopolitical supply-shock premiums dissipated. This volatility in commodity prices overshadowed positive company-specific developments like the Mt. Holly smelter expansion targeting full output by the end of fiscal Q2 2026, which was expected to drive higher adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.6% change in CENX stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -90.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.69 | 45.41 | -22.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,528 | 2,543 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.7% | 13.7% | 731.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 136.1 | 12.9 | -90.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 99 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | -22.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.2% | 22.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.2% | 24.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.9% change in CENX stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 307.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.18 | 45.41 | 15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,525 | 2,543 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 13.7% | 307.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.9 | 12.9 | -70.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 99 | -5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.0% | 27.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 152.0% change in CENX stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 171.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.02 | 45.41 | 152.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,365 | 2,543 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.1% | 13.7% | 171.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.0 | 12.9 | -8.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 99 | -5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 152.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 152.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.3% | 31.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.9% | 32.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 420.8% change in CENX stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 465.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.72 | 45.41 | 420.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,576 | 2,543 | -1.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 1.8 | 465.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 99 | -6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 420.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 420.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 40.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 28.8% | 46.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CENX Return | 50% | -51% | 48% | 50% | 115% | 14% | 305% |
| Peers Return | 56% | -12% | 21% | -9% | 51% | 30% | 198% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CENX Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 44% | 52% | 48% | 71% | 61% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CENX Max Drawdown | -44% | -82% | -55% | -41% | -37% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -45% | -34% | -37% | -34% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CSTM, RS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CENX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -32.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -68.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 215.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 551 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Century Aluminum's stock fell -34.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CENX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -32.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -68.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 215.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 551 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 591 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -51.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -88.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 792.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2239 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 952 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 160 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5059.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6211 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Century Aluminum's stock fell -34.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Century Aluminum (CENX)
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Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is a global producer of primary aluminum, operating significant facilities in the United States and Iceland. The company is primarily involved in the smelting and production of this fundamental industrial metal, making it a key player in the upstream segment of the aluminum supply chain.
The company's main products include both standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum. These products are foundational raw materials essential for numerous manufacturing processes. In addition to aluminum production, Century Aluminum also operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands, which is crucial for the electrolytic smelting process used to produce aluminum.
Century Aluminum serves a broad base of industrial customers and markets that rely on primary aluminum as a critical input. These typically include sectors such as automotive, aerospace, construction, electrical, and packaging, where aluminum's lightweight, durability, and conductive properties are highly sought after by manufacturers for a diverse range of end-use applications.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
- Century Aluminum is like US Steel for aluminum.
- Think of them as the Corning of primary metals, focusing on aluminum.
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- Standard-grade primary aluminum products: Basic, unalloyed aluminum for various industrial applications.
- Value-added primary aluminum products: Aluminum products with specific alloys, shapes, or properties tailored for specialized uses.
- Carbon anodes: Consumable electrodes essential for the electrolytic smelting process of aluminum.
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Century Aluminum Company (CENX) primarily sells its standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products to other companies rather than individuals. As a producer of a base industrial commodity, Century Aluminum's customers are typically manufacturers and processors that utilize aluminum as a raw material in their own production.
While Century Aluminum's public filings do not typically disclose the names of specific major customer companies due to the nature of commodity sales and competitive considerations, their products are essential inputs for a wide range of industrial applications. Therefore, their customer base broadly consists of companies operating in the following key sectors:
- Automotive Industry: Companies manufacturing vehicles and vehicle components, utilizing aluminum for lightweighting, structural parts, and engine components.
- Packaging Industry: Producers of beverage cans, food containers, and flexible packaging that require aluminum sheet and foil.
- Construction and Building Industry: Firms involved in infrastructure, commercial, and residential construction that use aluminum for extrusions, sheets, and architectural elements like window frames, doors, and roofing.
- Aerospace and Defense: Manufacturers of aircraft and defense equipment, where high-strength, lightweight aluminum alloys are critical.
- Electrical Industry: Companies producing electrical cables, conductors, and various electrical components where aluminum's conductivity and light weight are beneficial.
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- Glencore plc (GLEN)
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- Big Rivers Electric Corporation
- Wabash Valley Power Association, Inc.
- South Carolina Public Service Authority (Santee Cooper)
- Landsvirkjun
- Orka náttúrunnar sf.
- HS Orka hf.
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Jesse E. Gary President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Gary joined Century Aluminum in 2010 and was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer on July 1, 2021. Prior to his CEO role, he served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Chief Operating Officer. Before joining Century, Mr. Gary practiced law at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz in New York. He brings leadership, risk-management, and strategy-development experience to the company, along with extensive knowledge of the aluminum industry and global markets.
Peter Trpkovski Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Trpkovski was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 21, 2025. He joined Century Aluminum in 2013 and has since held roles of increasing responsibility, including Senior Vice President, Finance and Treasurer, and Vice President, Finance, and Investor Relations. He has also led Financial Planning and Analysis and Risk Management. Before his tenure at Century, Mr. Trpkovski worked at Citigroup and Johnson Controls.
John DeZee Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Mr. DeZee joined Century Aluminum in 2008 as Associate General Counsel and was promoted to Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary in May 2021. His legal career began at Paul Hastings LLP in Los Angeles, and he also served as in-house counsel at James Hardie Building Products before joining Century.
Agust Hafberg Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Mr. Hafberg has been with Century Aluminum since 2007, serving in various commercial and business development roles before his promotion to Senior Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer in February 2019. Prior to joining Century, he held several management positions in shipping, logistics, and consulting across Europe.
Robert Hoffman Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. Hoffman joined Century Aluminum in October 2004. He has held several positions within the company, including Corporate Controller, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis, and Chief Information Officer. He was promoted to Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer and Chief Accounting Officer in 2021. In 2024, he led the integration effort at the company's bauxite mine and alumina refinery in Jamaica while continuing his role as Chief Information Officer.
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The key risks to Century Aluminum (CENX) are:
- Volatility in Aluminum Prices and Impact of Trade Policies
Century Aluminum's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices and regional premiums (such as the Midwest Premium). Management estimates that a $100 per ton decrease in the LME price can reduce EBITDA by $46 million. The company benefits significantly from U.S. protectionist policies, including tariffs on imported aluminum, which contribute to higher regional premiums. The potential easing or removal of these trade tariffs poses a substantial risk, as it could compress these premiums and negatively impact the company's earnings. - High and Volatile Energy Costs
Electrical power is a principal component of Century Aluminum's production costs, representing a significant portion of its cost of goods sold. The company's reliance on market-based electricity contracts exposes it to significant price volatility, which can adversely affect its financial performance if increases in energy costs are not offset by corresponding increases in aluminum prices. - Operational Instability and Execution Risk for Strategic Projects
Century Aluminum faces operational risks including disruptions at its existing smelters, such as equipment failures that can temporarily reduce production. Furthermore, the company is undertaking significant strategic projects, including restarting idled U.S. capacity and developing new smelters (e.g., the planned Inola plant in Oklahoma). These large-scale projects introduce substantial execution, funding, permitting, and construction risks. Additionally, the company has recently disclosed a material weakness in internal controls related to the consolidation of its Jamalco joint venture and has restated financial statements, leading to an adverse opinion on internal control over financial reporting, which signals elevated accounting and control risk.
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The emergence of inert anode technology, which aims to produce aluminum without greenhouse gas emissions and without the use of carbon anodes, represents a clear emerging threat. This technology directly threatens Century Aluminum's carbon anode production facility and could render traditional Hall-Héroult smelting processes, which rely on carbon anodes, less competitive or obsolete in an increasingly decarbonized market.
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Addressable Markets for Century Aluminum's Main Products and Services
For Century Aluminum (CENX), the addressable markets for its main products are as follows:
Primary Aluminum Products (Standard-Grade and Value-Added)
- Global Primary Aluminum Market: The global aluminum market size was valued at approximately USD 199.83 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 307.36 billion by 2033, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.9% during the forecast period (2025–2033). Another estimate places the global primary aluminum market at US$107.23 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$152.85 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.59% from 2025-2032.
- U.S. Aluminum Market: The U.S. aluminum market, encompassing both primary and recycled aluminum, was valued at US$28.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$42.8 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2026-2032.
- Global Aluminum Flat Products Market (a component of Value-Added Aluminum): The global aluminum flat products market is estimated to be valued at USD 70.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 110.9 billion by 2035, registering a CAGR of 4.6% over the forecast period. The United States aluminum flat products market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.9%.
Carbon Anode Production
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Century Aluminum (CENX)
- Increased Production Volume from Mt. Holly Restart: Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly restart project is on track to significantly boost U.S. aluminum production. This initiative is expected to increase U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10% in 2026, with the restart of production commencing in April and completion anticipated by the end of June 2026. The project is also projected to contribute approximately $25 million in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA once fully operational.
- Significant Capacity Expansion with the New Oklahoma Smelter: A major strategic growth driver is the partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) to construct a new 750,000-ton aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, which will be the first new smelter in the U.S. in nearly 50 years. Century Aluminum will hold a 40% ownership stake in this project, which is designed to substantially increase the company's production capacity. The company aims to finalize the power contract, engineering, and financing for this project in 2026, with a final investment decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Sustained Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Premiums: Strong aluminum market conditions, characterized by elevated London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and robust U.S. Midwest Premium (MWP), are expected to continue driving revenue growth. Management noted that pricing power, rather than volume, was the primary engine for revenue growth in 2025. The enforcement of the 50% Section 232 aluminum tariff further supports the U.S. Midwest Premium.
- Restart of Grundartangi Line 2: The company anticipates the restart of Line 2 at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland. This restart will help to restore production volume that was temporarily halted due to transformer failures, thereby contributing to increased shipments and revenue.
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Inbound Investments
- Century Aluminum received a $500 million Department of Energy grant to support the development of its Oklahoma smelter project.
Outbound Investments
- Century Aluminum entered a joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to build a new primary aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, holding a 40% ownership stake in the $4 billion project.
- The company redeveloped its Hawesville site into an AI digital infrastructure campus, receiving $200 million in cash and retaining a 6.8% interest in the completed data center.
Capital Expenditures
- Century Aluminum's capital expenditures were $83 million in 2021, $86 million in 2022, and $69 million in 2023.
- Total capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to be in the range of $115 million to $125 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes the Mt. Holly expansion, the restart of Grundartangi Line 2, and preparatory engineering work for the Oklahoma smelter project.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 8,931 |
| Op Inc LTM | 484 |
| FCF LTM | 171 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 53 |
| CFO LTM | 504 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 431 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 32.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 122.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 2,244 | 1,882 | 2,185 | 2,777 | 2,212 |
| Alumina | 284 | 338 | |||
| Total | 2,528 | 2,220 | 2,185 | 2,777 | 2,212 |
| $ Mil | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Aluminum | 21 | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| Sheet and Plate Products | 11 | 10 | ||
| Total | 21 | 33 | -7 | 39 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 1,897 | 1,808 | 1,432 | 1,513 | 1,332 |
| Corporate, unallocated | 43 | 38 | 40 | 57 | 68 |
| Total | 1,939 | 1,846 | 1,472 | 1,570 | 1,400 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $45.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/29/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $55.90 | $46.29 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -18.8% | -1.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 63.0% | 64.5% |
| Downside Capture | 351.08 | 190.42 |
| Upside Capture | 65.32 | 241.34 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.2% | 31.6% |
CENX Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.86 | 1.11 | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.59 | 1.77 |
| Up Beta | -3.69 | -3.28 | -0.50 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 1.45 |
| Down Beta | 1.41 | 2.33 | 2.25 | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.92 |
| Up Capture | -21% | 74% | 109% | 181% | 508% | 1721% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 20 | 34 | 68 | 136 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 316% | 270% | 287% | 136% | 141% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 21 | 29 | 57 | 115 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CENX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 134.7% | 64.6% | 1.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 11.3% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 32.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.8% | 12.6% | 1.23 | 31.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.0% | 27.9% | 0.64 | 35.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.6% | 18.9% | 1.16 | 21.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.9% | 0.66 | 6.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.8% | 42.7% | -1.28 | 25.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CENX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 28.8% | 72.2% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.21 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 45.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 25.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.29 | 36.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 32.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.6% | 53.5% | 0.44 | 23.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CENX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 22.1% | 70.6% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 51.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 43.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 17.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 36.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 30.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.7% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.8% | 1.4% | 4.5% |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.3% | -0.6% | -6.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.6% | 4.1% | -4.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.0% | 7.8% | 23.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -13.3% | -3.3% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 20.0% | 26.3% | 35.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.5% | 4.9% | -6.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.7% | 1.2% | 10.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 6.3% | 23.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -5.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 37.6% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -13.6% | -25.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.8% | 1.4% | 4.5% |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.3% | -0.6% | -6.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.6% | 4.1% | -4.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.0% | 7.8% | 23.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -13.3% | -3.3% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 20.0% | 26.3% | 35.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.5% | 4.9% | -6.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.7% | 1.2% | 10.8% |
| 2/21/2024 | -3.3% | -4.9% | 19.4% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.0% | 17.5% | 22.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | -8.6% | -13.6% | -21.4% |
| 5/8/2023 | -7.8% | -9.7% | 2.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | 2.7% | 20.8% | -13.4% |
| 2/24/2022 | 11.1% | 37.6% | 37.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | -3.9% | 0.4% | -2.6% |
| 8/4/2021 | -19.1% | -6.3% | -6.7% |
| 5/5/2021 | -11.6% | -11.0% | -25.4% |
| 2/18/2021 | 5.1% | 17.9% | 31.8% |
| 10/29/2020 | -6.1% | 1.1% | 44.8% |
| 8/5/2020 | 2.3% | -0.1% | -1.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 6.3% | 23.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -5.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 37.6% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -13.6% | -25.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/04/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 315.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 335.00 Mil | 44.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 225.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 215.00 Mil | 225.00 Mil | 235.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trpkovski, Peter A | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 50.51 | 16,739 | 845,487 | 3,238,954 | Form |
| 2 | Gary, Jesse E | President and CEO | Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 55.47 | 150,000 | 8,320,500 | 7,908,913 | Form |
| 3 | Calloway, Kenneth L | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 58.00 | 18,000 | 1,044,000 | 1,444,316 | Form |
| 4 | Hoffman, Robert F | SVP, IT and CAO | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 56.51 | 10,529 | 594,994 | 3,200,896 | Form |
| 5 | Hoffman, Robert F | SVP, IT and CAO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 56.33 | 10,000 | 563,300 | 3,783,799 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trpkovski, Peter A | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 50.51 | 16,739 | 845,487 | 3,238,954 | Form |
| 2 | Gary, Jesse E | President and CEO | Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 55.47 | 150,000 | 8,320,500 | 7,908,913 | Form |
| 3 | Calloway, Kenneth L | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 58.00 | 18,000 | 1,044,000 | 1,444,316 | Form |
| 4 | Hoffman, Robert F | SVP, IT and CAO | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 56.51 | 10,529 | 594,994 | 3,200,896 | Form |
| 5 | Hoffman, Robert F | SVP, IT and CAO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 56.33 | 10,000 | 563,300 | 3,783,799 | Form |
| 6 | Hafberg, Agust F | SVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 51.24 | 22,884 | 1,172,576 | 2,308,823 | Form |
| 7 | Gudlaugsson, Gunnar | EVP - Global Operations | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 54.10 | 43,000 | 2,326,300 | 7,378,861 | Form |
| 8 | Dezee, John | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 50.72 | 66,000 | 3,347,520 | 4,952,656 | Form |
| 9 | Gary, Jesse E | President and CEO | Trust | Sell | 1232026 | 48.19 | 150,000 | 7,228,500 | 14,099,430 | Form |
| 10 | Glencore, International AG | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 30.25 | 9,000,000 | 272,250,000 | 559,625,000 | Form | |
| 11 | Hafberg, Agust F | SVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 27.91 | 9,493 | 264,950 | 1,542,307 | Form |
| 12 | Calloway, Kenneth L | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9232025 | 27.50 | 16,450 | 452,375 | 789,415 | Form |
| 13 | Aboud, Matt | SVP, Strategy & Business Dev't | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 23.27 | 12,027 | 279,868 | 1,456,446 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 14, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glencore plc | $1.7 Bil | 29.5% | 3 | TRIM -17.5% | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $157.7 Mil | 6.6% | 39 | TRIM -25.8% | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $16.5 Mil | 5.8% | 14 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| Bornite Capital Management LP | $31.8 Mil | 5.3% | 17 | ADD +116.8% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $31.2 Mil | 1.7% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda | $6.0 Mil | 1.1% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $157.7 Mil | 6.6% | 39 | TRIM -25.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Glencore plc | $1.7 Bil | 29.5% | 3 | TRIM -17.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $16.5 Mil | 5.8% | 14 | TRIM -10.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glencore plc | $1.7 Bil | 29.5% | 3 | TRIM -17.5% | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $157.7 Mil | 6.6% | 39 | TRIM -25.8% | 13F |
| Bornite Capital Management LP | $31.8 Mil | 5.3% | 17 | ADD +116.8% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $31.2 Mil | 1.7% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $16.5 Mil | 5.8% | 14 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Aluminum Resources |
| Light Metal Age |
| Aluminium International Today |
| The Aluminum Association |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/13/2026