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Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $148.04 | Market Cap: $7.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $148.04
Market Cap: $7.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -195 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9%
3   Key risks
AXSM key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the commercial performance of its limited approved products, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -195 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9%
7 Key risks
AXSM key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the commercial performance of its limited approved products, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AXSM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Axsome Therapeutics reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, announced on November 3, 2025. The company achieved total net product revenue of $171.0 million, marking a substantial 63% year-over-year growth. AUVELITY, one of its key products, contributed significantly with $136.1 million in net product sales, representing a 69% year-over-year increase. The company also saw a reduction in its net loss compared to the previous year.

2. Advancements in Pipeline and Regulatory Submissions: During this period, Axsome made significant progress with its drug pipeline. The company submitted a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the FDA for AXS-05 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease agitation. Additionally, Axsome planned to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA for AXS-12 for cataplexy in narcolepsy in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also indicated plans to initiate a pivotal Phase 2/3 trial for AXS-05 in smoking cessation in the same quarter.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AXSM Return-21%-54%104%3%6%74%42%
Peers Return4%-16%35%-18%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AXSM Win Rate42%50%67%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate47%50%50%48%50%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AXSM Max Drawdown-60%-76%-42%-26%-17%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-45%-33%-32%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JAZZ, NBIX, HRMY, BHVN, RLMD. See AXSM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAXSMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven309.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven665 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1772 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-70.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven237.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven11 days120 days

Compare to ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX


In The Past

Axsome Therapeutics's stock fell -75.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/1/2021. A -75.6% loss requires a 309.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)

Better Bets than Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AXSM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Axsome Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AXSMJAZZNBIXHRMYBHVNRLMDMedian
NameAxsome T.Jazz Pha.Neurocri.Harmony .Biohaven Relmada . 
Mkt Price148.00164.91141.7038.7810.874.0190.24
Mkt Cap7.410.014.12.21.20.14.8
Rev LTM5614,1582,68382600694
Op Inc LTM-195454554226-793-5884
FCF LTM-1011,239593297-650-40128
FCF 3Y Avg-1261,069473229-492-5786
CFO LTM-1011,392637298-650-40129
CFO 3Y Avg-1251,274508229-489-5786

Growth & Margins

AXSMJAZZNBIXHRMYBHVNRLMDMedian
NameAxsome T.Jazz Pha.Neurocri.Harmony .Biohaven Relmada . 
Rev Chg LTM65.8%4.1%19.6%21.1%--20.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg296.0%5.1%24.6%27.4%--26.0%
Rev Chg Q63.2%6.7%27.8%28.7%--28.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM13.4%1.7%6.9%6.9%--6.9%
Op Mgn LTM-34.7%10.9%20.6%27.3%--15.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-63.2%14.3%22.1%29.9%--18.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.3%-4.1%0.8%-1.4%---0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-18.0%33.5%23.7%36.0%--28.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-40.3%32.0%22.6%33.2%--27.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.1%29.8%22.1%35.9%--26.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-40.4%26.8%21.1%33.2%--23.9%

Valuation

AXSMJAZZNBIXHRMYBHVNRLMDMedian
NameAxsome T.Jazz Pha.Neurocri.Harmony .Biohaven Relmada . 
Mkt Cap7.410.014.12.21.20.14.8
P/S10.81.95.21.9--3.6
P/EBIT-27.3-15.923.96.5-1.5--1.5
P/E-26.5-21.732.68.5-1.5-1.2-1.3
P/CFO-60.25.721.95.3-1.8-1.71.8
Total Yield-3.8%-4.6%3.1%11.7%-67.8%-84.2%-4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%14.1%3.8%12.3%-22.9%-3.8%
D/E0.00.70.00.10.3-0.1
Net D/E-0.00.4-0.0-0.30.0--0.0

Returns

AXSMJAZZNBIXHRMYBHVNRLMDMedian
NameAxsome T.Jazz Pha.Neurocri.Harmony .Biohaven Relmada . 
1M Rtn1.7%-3.0%-1.3%14.1%31.4%1.0%1.3%
3M Rtn26.9%27.3%-0.7%21.0%-26.1%165.6%23.9%
6M Rtn43.8%52.4%11.3%19.4%-24.5%472.9%31.6%
12M Rtn58.3%34.6%3.7%15.3%-72.2%1,008.7%25.0%
3Y Rtn88.8%4.6%20.9%-30.4%-28.0%19.0%11.8%
1M Excs Rtn0.9%-3.8%-2.0%13.4%30.7%0.3%0.6%
3M Excs Rtn23.4%24.4%-4.1%17.5%-31.3%141.7%20.5%
6M Excs Rtn31.5%40.0%-1.1%7.0%-36.8%460.6%19.2%
12M Excs Rtn53.2%23.0%0.8%8.7%-82.8%981.6%15.8%
3Y Excs Rtn18.0%-60.4%-49.8%-103.8%-101.5%-50.1%-55.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Auvelity1305   
Sunosi7245   
Sunosi license revenue660   
Sunosi royalty revenue20   
Total27150   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of developing and delivering novel therapies for the management of CNS disorders  88186221
Total  88186221


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,404,883
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.3%
Average Daily Volume566,259
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.01
Basic Shares Quantity50,021,851
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/20250.6%2.3%9.5%
8/4/20253.4%1.7%19.9%
5/5/20253.8%-4.0%-1.9%
2/18/2025-2.3%-0.3%-4.9%
11/12/20249.4%1.6%7.4%
8/5/2024-1.4%-1.6%6.2%
5/6/20241.5%-3.1%-3.4%
2/20/2024-12.6%-11.3%-17.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131113
# Negative9119
Median Positive4.8%2.6%14.7%
Median Negative-4.2%-3.5%-15.0%
Max Positive10.2%8.4%76.4%
Max Negative-46.5%-55.3%-48.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021