Applied Materials (AMAT)
Market Price (2/15/2026): $353.78 | Market Cap: $281.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Market Price (2/15/2026): $353.78Market Cap: $281.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 120%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 112% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 74% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Show more. | Key risksAMAT key risks include [1] U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 120%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 112% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 74% |
| Key risksAMAT key risks include [1] U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Q1 FY2026 Financial Results and Bullish Guidance.
Applied Materials reported robust financial results for its fiscal first quarter of 2026 (ending January 25, 2026) on February 12, 2026. The company's actual adjusted EPS of $2.38 surpassed analyst estimates of $2.20-$2.21, and its revenue of $7.01 billion exceeded expectations of $6.88-$6.89 billion. Furthermore, Applied Materials provided significantly strong guidance for Q2 FY2026, forecasting revenue of approximately $7.65 billion and non-GAAP EPS of around $2.64, both well above consensus estimates. This strong earnings beat and optimistic forward-looking guidance acted as a significant catalyst for the stock's upward movement.
2. Accelerated Demand Driven by AI and Semiconductor Industry Growth.
A primary driver for Applied Materials' strong performance and outlook was the "acceleration of investments in AI computing." CEO Gary Dickerson emphasized that the "race to build out AI infrastructure is driving unprecedented spending on semiconductors" and projected that the company's semiconductor equipment business would grow by more than 20% in calendar year 2026, notably higher than previous Street estimates of 11%. Dickerson also anticipated that global semiconductor industry revenues could reach $1 trillion in 2026, marking an earlier achievement than prior industry forecasts and signaling an "AI Giga-cycle."
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.1% change in AMAT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 232.64 | 353.78 | 52.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,613 | 28,368 | -0.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.9% | 24.7% | 3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.2 | 40.2 | 47.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 798 | 795 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 52.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | 63.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | -7.2% | 72.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 97.4% change in AMAT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 87.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 179.19 | 353.78 | 97.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,089 | 28,368 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.1% | 24.7% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.5 | 40.2 | 87.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 809 | 795 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 97.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 98.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 54.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 6.4% | 64.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 98.1% change in AMAT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.56 | 353.78 | 98.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,176 | 28,368 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.4% | 24.7% | -6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.4 | 40.2 | 96.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 821 | 795 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 98.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 98.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 66.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.5% | 74.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 226.0% change in AMAT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 183.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.52 | 353.78 | 226.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,785 | 28,368 | 10.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 24.7% | -2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 40.2 | 183.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 853 | 795 | 7.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 226.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 227.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 64.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 109.5% | 74.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMAT Return | 84% | -38% | 68% | 1% | 60% | 28% | 297% |
| Peers Return | 48% | -33% | 34% | -14% | 36% | 22% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMAT Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 37% | 58% | 40% | 50% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMAT Max Drawdown | 0% | -52% | -1% | -8% | -22% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -46% | -11% | -23% | -29% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TXN, MCHP, PXLW, LRCX, AMAT. See AMAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,055 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TXN, MCHP, PXLW, LRCX, AMAT
In The Past
Applied Materials's stock fell -55.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -55.4% loss requires a 124.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Applied Materials (AMAT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Applied Materials (AMAT):
- Applied Materials is like **Caterpillar for the semiconductor industry**.
- Applied Materials is like **Honeywell for advanced chip factories**.
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- Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: Provides a broad range of equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits, including deposition, etch, ion implantation, and process control systems.
- Display Manufacturing Equipment: Offers equipment for producing displays used in smartphones, tablets, TVs, and other applications, such as for OLED and LCD manufacturing.
- Related Services: Delivers services like spare parts, upgrades, maintenance, and consulting to maximize the performance and longevity of its installed equipment base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Applied Materials (AMAT) primarily sells to other companies (B2B) within the semiconductor and display industries. Their major customers are leading manufacturers of semiconductors and advanced displays.
Here are some of their major customer companies:
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- MKS Instruments, Inc. (MKSI)
- Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS)
- VAT Group AG (VACN.SW)
- Edwards Vacuum (part of Atlas Copco, ATCO-A.ST)
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Gary Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer
Gary Dickerson has over 35 years of experience in the semiconductor industry. He became President of Applied Materials in 2012 and was appointed Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board of directors in September 2013. Prior to joining Applied Materials, he served as CEO of Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. for seven years until its acquisition by Applied Materials in 2011. He also spent 18 years at KLA-Tencor Corporation, where he held various operations and product development roles, ultimately serving as president and chief operating officer. His career began in manufacturing and engineering management at General Motors' Delco Electronics Division and AT&T Technologies.
Brice Hill, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Global Information Services
Brice Hill was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Applied Materials in March 2022, also overseeing Global Information Services. He is a semiconductor industry veteran with over 30 years of experience in finance, mergers and acquisitions, global operations, and strategy. Before Applied Materials, he was Executive Vice President and CFO of Xilinx, Inc. until its acquisition by Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. He also spent 25 years at Intel Corporation, holding significant roles including CFO and Chief Operating Officer of the Technology, Systems and Core Engineering Group, and Corporate Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Business Unit Finance. Hill began his career with various finance positions at General Motors Corporation.
Omkaram Nalamasu, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, President of Applied Ventures, LLC
Omkaram Nalamasu is responsible for leading Applied Materials' technology strategy and overseeing its venture capital arm. His background includes previous roles at Bell Labs and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and he holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry from The University of British Columbia.
Prabu G. Raja, President of the Semiconductor Products Group
Prabu G. Raja leads the development and execution of strategies for Applied Materials' semiconductor business. He has been with the company since 1995, previously serving as Senior Vice President, and possesses expertise in semiconductor technology and product innovation.
Teri Little, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary
Teri Little oversees the legal and governance aspects of Applied Materials, ensuring compliance and managing risk for the company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Applied Materials' (AMAT) business:
- Global Trade Issues and Export Regulations: Applied Materials faces significant risks from global trade issues, changes in trade policies, and export regulations, particularly those affecting sales to China. U.S. government export controls on semiconductor technology sold to China have limited market access and increased competition, which could adversely impact the company's business and operations, and reduce the competitiveness of its products.
- Cyclical Nature of the Semiconductor Industry and Customer Demand Volatility: The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical and subject to significant volatility in customer demand. This volatility is influenced by technology advancements, fabrication processes, and broader economic conditions, making it challenging to accurately forecast demand. Fluctuations can lead to customers delaying, canceling, or refraining from purchasing equipment and services, thereby negatively impacting revenue and operating results.
- Customer Concentration Risk: Applied Materials has a highly concentrated customer base, with a few large chipmakers accounting for a substantial portion of its business. A loss or reduction of business from any major customer could significantly impact the company's financial performance and market position.
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The acceleration of China's domestic semiconductor equipment industry, driven by national self-sufficiency goals and international export controls, poses a clear emerging threat to Applied Materials (AMAT).
While still significantly behind global leaders in advanced technologies, Chinese equipment manufacturers (such as Naura Technology for etch and deposition, and SMEE for lithography) are receiving substantial state backing and are rapidly improving their capabilities, especially for mature node processes. As China continues to build out its domestic chip manufacturing capacity, there is a strong push to prioritize and adopt locally produced equipment. This trend could erode AMAT's market share within China over time, a crucial market for global semiconductor equipment suppliers, potentially forcing AMAT to compete with state-subsidized alternatives or face restrictions in accessing this large market.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) participates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily within the semiconductor and display industries. The market sizes provided are global unless otherwise specified.
- Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) Equipment: The global PVD equipment market space is approximately $4.5 billion. More broadly, the global physical vapor deposition market (encompassing equipment, materials, and services) was valued at $21.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $33.1 billion by 2029. Another estimate places the total global PVD market at approximately $49.2 billion by 2033, with PVD equipment accounting for $11.8 billion of that in 2023. Applied Materials holds a dominant position in PVD equipment, with over 80% market share.
- Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) Equipment: The global CVD equipment market space is approximately $13 billion. Other analyses indicate the global Chemical Vapor Deposition market was valued at $22.36 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $40.16 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.1%. The market is also projected to cross $49.47 billion by 2032 from $26.53 billion in 2025. The semiconductor CVD equipment segment accounts for approximately 60% of the combined semiconductor CVD and PVD equipment market.
- Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) Equipment: The global ALD equipment market space is approximately $3 billion.
- Etch Equipment: The global semiconductor etch equipment market size was valued at $25.40 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $36.80 billion by 2030. Other projections estimate the market to grow from $28.578 billion in 2025 to $37.024 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 5.32%. Applied Materials holds approximately 15% of the etching market share.
- Advanced Packaging: The global advanced packaging market size was valued at $45.73 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $113.33 billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 9.50% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates indicate a market size of $38.5 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $111.4 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 11.5%. Applied Materials' advanced packaging portfolio generated close to $1.7 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024 and is expected to double in size.
- Display Equipment: Global display equipment spending is expected to reach a cumulative $76 billion during the 2020-2027 period. Applied Materials' MAX OLED solution is anticipated to more than double the company's served addressable market opportunity in OLED display manufacturing.
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Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the semiconductor industry:
- AI-Driven Demand and Advanced Logic Transitions: The increasing global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is a significant catalyst for Applied Materials. This demand necessitates advanced manufacturing equipment and processes to produce next-generation AI chips, including those utilizing new device architectures like Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors. The transition to these advanced nodes is anticipated to substantially increase Applied Materials' available market and revenue per wafer start.
- Robust Growth in DRAM and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM): The memory segment, particularly Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) and its advanced variant, High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is a strong driver for Applied Materials. Analysts anticipate significant growth in DRAM revenues, with some projections indicating a substantial increase for leading-edge DRAM customers. Applied Materials' solutions are crucial for enabling these advanced memory technologies, which are essential for AI and data center applications.
- Expansion of Applied Global Services (AGS): The Applied Global Services (AGS) segment consistently delivers record revenue and is expected to continue its growth trajectory. AGS provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance, including spares, upgrades, services, and factory automation software. This segment offers stable and recurring revenue, with a high service contract renewal rate, enhancing the company's overall financial stability and growth.
- Growth in Advanced Packaging Technologies: Advanced packaging is emerging as a critical growth area, particularly driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and chiplets. These technologies add complexity to the manufacturing process, requiring more sophisticated equipment for wafer thinning, planarization, through-silicon interconnects, and hybrid bonding. Applied Materials is strategically positioned to capitalize on this trend, with expectations for significant growth in this sector over the next several years.
- Increasing Complexity and Number of Manufacturing Steps per Chip: As semiconductor technology advances, new chip generations require more intricate designs and a higher number of manufacturing steps per wafer. This trend, encompassing innovations like new GAA transistors, backside power delivery networks (BSPDN), and denser interconnects, inherently increases Applied Materials' "share of wallet" with its customers. The company's leadership in materials engineering positions it to benefit from the increasing process steps required for advanced chip fabrication.
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Share Repurchases
- Applied Materials announced a new $10 billion share repurchase authorization in March 2025, complementing an existing authorization that had approximately $7.6 billion remaining at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025.
- In March 2023, the company announced another $10 billion share-buyback program.
- Over the past four fiscal years (ending Q1 FY25), Applied Materials returned $19.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Share Issuance
- No significant share issuance events (e.g., large secondary offerings) were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Inbound Investments
- Nuveen LLC acquired a new position in Applied Materials shares, valued at approximately $1.0856 billion, during the first quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In April 2025, Applied Materials strategically acquired a 9% stake in BE Semiconductor Industries (Besi) to enhance collaboration in hybrid bonding technology.
- Applied Ventures, Applied Materials' venture capital arm, made a growth equity investment in VVDN Technologies in February 2024 to expand R&D.
- Applied Materials acquired Picosun, a developer of thin film coating machinery, in June 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Applied Materials' capital expenditures were $3.271 billion in fiscal year 2020, increasing to $9.247 billion in fiscal year 2024.
- The latest twelve months' capital expenditures (as of July 2025) totaled $14.773 billion.
- The company's capital expenditures are primarily focused on investing in AI-optimized manufacturing tools and enabling advanced node production for chipmakers, supporting next-generation chip technologies and energy-efficient computing.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 225.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 205.3 |
| Rev LTM | 17,682 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,140 |
| FCF LTM | 2,603 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,817 |
| CFO LTM | 7,122 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,645 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 205.3 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| P/EBIT | 32.8 |
| P/E | 40.2 |
| P/CFO | 35.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 48.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 43.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 37.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Systems | 19,698 | 18,797 | 16,286 | 11,367 |
| Applied Global Services | 5,732 | 5,543 | 5,013 | 4,155 |
| Display | 868 | 1,331 | 1,634 | 1,607 |
| Corporate and Other | 219 | 114 | 130 | 73 |
| Total | 26,517 | 25,785 | 23,063 | 17,202 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Systems | 6,879 | 6,969 | 6,311 | 3,714 |
| Applied Global Services | 1,529 | 1,661 | 1,508 | 1,127 |
| Display | 114 | 260 | 314 | 291 |
| Corporate and Other | -868 | -1,102 | -1,244 | -767 |
| Total | 7,654 | 7,788 | 6,889 | 4,365 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $354.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 282.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $294.43 | $216.62 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 20.5% | 63.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.2% | 47.7% |
| Downside Capture | 214.82 | 171.98 |
| Upside Capture | 459.08 | 229.18 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 65.1% | 67.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.62 | 2.32 | 1.64 | 1.76 |
| Up Beta | 0.53 | 1.64 | 1.59 | 1.08 | 1.49 | 1.60 |
| Down Beta | 1.17 | 2.00 | 2.35 | 1.94 | 1.40 | 1.47 |
| Up Capture | 737% | 547% | 514% | 540% | 433% | 1670% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 75 | 137 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 268% | 243% | 202% | 204% | 138% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 16 | 23 | 50 | 114 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 98.7% | 48.2% | 1.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.0% | 27.6% | 0.61 | 74.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 19.4% | 0.55 | 66.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.3% | 25.3% | 2.17 | 12.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 23.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.9% | -0.65 | 30.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 28.4% | 43.8% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.2% | 24.8% | 0.59 | 77.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 69.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.0% | 1.06 | 13.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 18.9% | 0.44 | 18.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 36.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 28.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | 37.3% | 42.1% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.0% | 24.2% | 0.86 | 76.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 70.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 22.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 20.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | 1.2% | -1.3% | 16.0% |
| 8/14/2025 | -14.1% | -14.8% | -8.9% |
| 5/15/2025 | -5.3% | -7.9% | 1.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.2% | -6.5% | -15.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -9.2% | -5.3% | -8.7% |
| 8/15/2024 | -1.9% | -5.3% | -11.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% |
| 11/16/2023 | -4.0% | -2.7% | 3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -5.2% | -11.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 11.0% | 27.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -14.8% | -21.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10/31/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 02/24/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanders, Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 255.53 | 609 | 155,620 | 1,127,672 | Form |
| 2 | Little, Teri A | SVP, CLO | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 238.24 | 4,000 | 952,942 | 20,095,403 | Form |
| 3 | Little, Teri A | SVP, CLO | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 234.08 | 4,000 | 936,321 | 20,681,220 | Form |
| 4 | Sanders, Adam | Corp. Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 6252025 | 178.60 | 562 | 100,373 | 946,580 | Form |
| 5 | Dickerson, Gary E | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 4072025 | 137.30 | 50,000 | 6,865,082 | 235,617,571 | Form |
AMAT Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Secular AI Boom vs. Cyclical/Geopolitical Reality
BULL VIEW
The AI-driven demand for advanced chips is a multi-year supercycle. This will force customers to increase CapEx, overriding near-term headwinds and driving a strong H2 2026 recovery.
CORE TENSION
The market prices in a powerful AI-driven recovery while current data shows decelerating orders, negative revenue growth, and tangible impact from US-China export controls.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Order Backlog, a key forward-looking metric, declined 5.5% YoY to $15.0B in the latest quarter (Oct 2025), indicating a tangible slowdown in customer demand.
BEAR VIEW
The declining backlog, quantified $600M China revenue impact, and ongoing DOJ investigation are being ignored. The stock's high valuation is disconnected from these weakening fundamentals.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Q1-Q2 2026 Earnings Calls | Key Customer CapEx Guidance (Intel, Samsung) Watch: Downward revisions to FY2026 CapEx plans or commentary about a 'digestion phase' after heavy spending. |
Anytime | Escalation of US-China Tech Export Controls Watch: Any announcement from the U.S. Dept. of Commerce adding new Chinese firms to the Entity List or restricting new tool types. |
Next 30-90 Days | Memory Sector Capex Guidance (Micron, SK Hynix) Watch: Memory producers' guidance on inventory levels and pricing. A forecast of weakness implies WFE spending cuts. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/15/2025 | Q3 FY2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations, demonstrating solid execution despite early signs of a market slowdown. | Modest 1.1% gain $160.97 -> $162.74 |
9/18/2025 | AI Narrative Gains Momentum Details: A broad-based rally in semiconductor stocks occurred as multiple analyst reports highlighted an AI-driven demand 'supercycle', boosting sentiment for equipment providers like AMAT. | Surged +6.53% $177.78 -> $189.38 |
11/4/2025 | Reports on DOJ Investigation Details: Stock dropped on heightened investor concern following media reports detailing the ongoing DOJ and SEC investigations into potential evasion of China export restrictions. | Fell notably by 3.16% $237.24 -> $229.73 |
11/13/2025 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings & Guidance Details: AMAT beat consensus estimates for revenue and EPS. However, it also quantified a $600M negative revenue impact for FY2026 from new US export controls on China. | Modest 1.25% gain $223.23 -> $226.01 |
1/5/2026 | Key Customer Signals Major Capex Increase Details: Stock rallied following reports confirming key customer TSMC's plan to boost 2026 CapEx by ~32%, signaling strong demand for advanced equipment driven by the AI arms race. | Surged +5.75% $268.87 -> $284.32 |
1/29/2026 | Stock Hits 52-Week High Details: Shares reached a new 52-week high as investor enthusiasm for the AI infrastructure build-out narrative continued, pushing valuations across the semiconductor sector higher. | Modest 1.36% gain $336.75 -> $341.34 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Given the bearish sentiment, high relative volatility, and contested moat, a conservative allocation is prudent until fundamentals show clearer signs of recovery or de-risking events pass.
Diversification Alternatives
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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