Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $327.2 | Market Cap: $138.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Adobe (ADBE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $327.2Market Cap: $138.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADBE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Adobe (ADBE) shares experienced a significant decline of 8.5% on September 13, 2024. This movement was primarily influenced by the following factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Guidance. Adobe provided a forecast for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2024 that fell below market expectations, leading to investor concern regarding future performance.
2. Missed Analyst Estimates for Q4 Outlook. Despite reporting stronger-than-expected results for its third quarter, Adobe's guidance for Q4 earnings per share and revenue did not meet analyst consensus estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADBE Return | 52% | 13% | -41% | 77% | -25% | -26% | -0% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 31% | -28% | 57% | 21% | -0% | 172% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADBE Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 32% | 62% | 58% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADBE Max Drawdown | -14% | -16% | -51% | -5% | -27% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -11% | -39% | -1% | -11% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORCL, CRM, INTU, ADSK, SNPS. See ADBE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADBE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1592 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ORCL, CRM, INTU, ADSK, SNPS
In The Past
Adobe's stock fell -60.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -60.0% loss requires a 150.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| ADBE Now 39% Cheaper, Buy? | Actionable | ||
| High Margins, Lower Price: Is ADBE a Buy? | Actionable | ||
| How Low Can Adobe Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| ADBE Leadership & 41% Price Drop - Time to Buy? | Actionable | ||
| High Margins, Lower Price: Is ADBE a Buy? | Actionable | ||
| Better Bet Than ADBE Stock: Pay Less Than Adobe To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| Better Bet Than ADBE Stock: Pay Less Than Adobe To Get More From FSLR, IDCC | |||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for Adobe Stock with -8.6% Return (vs. -24% YTD) [8/5/2025] | Notification | ||
| ORCL or ADBE - With 44% Return Forecast, ADBE Probably Deserves Your Money | Peer Comparison | ||
| ADBE Could Deliver 44% Returns And Outperform ORCL | Peer Comparison | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Adobe vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Is Adobe a Better Buy Than Oracle? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Is It Time To Buy Adobe Stock? | December 1st, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 20th, 2025 | ||
| Adobe vs Oracle: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | November 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADBE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.0% | -4.0% | -8.2% |
| 03312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -14.8% | -18.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.0% | -4.0% | -8.2% |
| 03312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -14.8% | -18.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Adobe
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 317.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 162.5 |
| Rev LTM | 21,006 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,662 |
| FCF LTM | 3,965 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,058 |
| CFO LTM | 8,000 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,782 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 162.5 |
| P/S | 10.3 |
| P/EBIT | 39.0 |
| P/E | 45.7 |
| P/CFO | 31.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9242025 | 10-Q 8/29/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6252025 | 10-Q 5/30/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1132025 | 10-K 11/29/2024 |
| 8312024 | 9252024 | 10-Q 8/30/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6262024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3272024 | 10-Q 3/1/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1172024 | 10-K 12/1/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9272023 | 10-Q 9/1/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6282023 | 10-Q 6/2/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3292023 | 10-Q 3/3/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1172023 | 10-K 12/2/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9282022 | 10-Q 9/2/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6292022 | 10-Q 6/3/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3302022 | 10-Q 3/4/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1212022 | 10-K 12/3/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
